Champions League Contention

[Rigadon]

And if we do ‘click’ away from home, we’ll probably win the league.

As mad as that is, it's probably true. 

[OCD]

De Bruyne is back in training apparently, so would think he'll be back playing fairly early in the new year.

Until his Hamstring goes.

[WarszaVillan]

It would be difficult to improve on our recent away form - 7 points out of 9.

I meant improve performances then. We really haven't played very well in the away games, and have got away with it to a certain extent. Drawing and losing against Chelsea and Brentford until they both had a man sent off, and being battered first half by Spurs for example. It's the mark of a good team that they can get results without being at their best of course, but Emery realises that we're not putting in the same levels at home as we are away, and I'm sure he sees that nicking results isn't the best way to go about things. Need to start with keeping clean sheets on the road.

Yeah, I agree with that. However, games will always be tighter away and harder to get wins. I've never quite understood why the difference is so stark.

[LeeB]

De Bruyne is back in training apparently, so would think he'll be back playing fairly early in the new year.

Until his Hamstring goes.

No spring chicken these days either.

[darren woolley]

Get to 92 points we should be Champions I reckon 74 for top four.

[paul_e]

Just to take a quick step back on the points thing, we might not all be talking about the same thing.

For me the number of points needed to win the league is what 2nd got +1, not what the champions get.
Ditto 4th place is 5th +1 not what 4th actually got.

So last season Man City got 89 but needed 85 and Newcastle got 71 but needed 68.

I think the amount needed to win will be similar but that the amount for 4th might be a little higher because I can see 5 or 6 teams being involved in the race, which wasn't really the case last year.

[Risso]

I think to win will need 85 or 86, and there will be a maximum spread between 1st and 4th of about 8 points. I think it's going to be very, very close.

[paul_e]

I think to win will need 85 or 86, and there will be a maximum spread between 1st and 4th of about 8 points. I think it's going to be very, very close.

I think the gap might be a bit wider than that with a couple of teams breaking away at the top but I mostly agree.

[ChicagoLion]

We need to be "lucky" with injuries.

[Smithy]

I think to win will need 85 or 86, and there will be a maximum spread between 1st and 4th of about 8 points. I think it's going to be very, very close.

That will require us to match (or just beat) our first half of the season form, which will be nigh on impossible to do at home.  I can see us getting to 72-73 points, which SHOULD be enough for the top four, but I just don't see us getting over 80 points.  I hope to Christ I'm completely wrong about that!

[Smithy]

We need to be "lucky" with injuries.

We lost two players for the entire season who were first 11 regulars last season, so I think we've had our fair share of bad luck already.  I think it would be par for the course not to lose anyone else for anything more than a week or so at any point.

Edit: And Moreno and Ramsey for almost half a season, so in the overall scheme of things we've probably been pretty unlucky so far!

[paul_e]

On our away form it's worth noting that we've played 2 of the other 3 teams in the top 4 for home form so if you were to rank games by difficulty our aways for the 2nd half of the season should be easier than the first. Given we're 6th on away form that's a big positive to suggest we can push for 30+ points away. Get that and keep our home form good and even with a small drop off 45+ points at home would put us right in the mix.

[OCD]

We drop points in games like Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth though. Would probably have been adding Brentford if it weren't for the red card too.

[Dave]

We drop points in games like Forest, Wolves, Bournemouth though. Would probably have been adding Brentford if it weren't for the red card too.

Is that different to other teams? Last season Newcastle dropped points to Palace twice, Brighton, Bournemouth twice, Wolves, Leeds...

And I'm in early February on the list and can't be bothered to look further.

[Clampy]

Man City blew a two goal lead last week at home. It happens.