Champions League Contention

[paul_e]

Any guesses for how many points we would need to:

1 - Win the title
2 - Finish top 4

I think the league will be a high points one, so 93

4th - 71

I don't think it will be that high this season, no one looks capable of the 10-12 winning run you need to get into the 90s.

86 for the league. Low 70s for the top 4 seems fair.

[hipkiss92]

Villa last won the league in 1981 and there will be many older supporters who recall the 1998-99 campaign, when John Gregory’s resurgent team led the table after 20 games and then slipped away.

Well I remember the 1998/9 season so have been described as an 'older supporter' for the first time, aged 33. This is depressing.

I remember when I was 30 and reading I Am Legend where the main character is described as a middle aged man when he's about 32... 

My dad wished me happy birthday when I was 33 and said, "well, you're middle-aged now." I'm 46 in two months and there's still no fucking way I'm middle-aged.

I read Sense & Sensibility recently and the characters were talking about Colonel Brandon as a love interest. They were writing him off as an old man, close to death. Why would he marry again unless it was to have someone to nurse him in his last years of life?  He was 35.

I may be inviting a 'whoosh' but life expectancy then was half what it is now.

This is very off topic, but mainly due to the high infant mortality rate in the 1800s, whereas if you made it to 35 in the 1800s, your life expectancy would be somewhere between 65 and, rather 40 years old at birth.

[SamTheMouse]

If you think that's off topic, mate, you should see the MOTD thread.

[Risso]

Any guesses for how many points we would need to:

1 - Win the title
2 - Finish top 4

I think the league will be a high points one, so 93

4th - 71

I don't think it will be that high this season, no one looks capable of the 10-12 winning run you need to get into the 90s.

86 for the league. Low 70s for the top 4 seems fair.

Agreed Paul, it's the most competitive it's been for years. Man City have already lost as many games as they did in the entire season two years ago. Everybody in the top few places has the potential to take points off everybody else. I think it's really going to come down to consistency, which for us means maintaining the incredible home standards, and improving the away form.

[Dogtanian]

I looked at it the other day and thought the 90 point mark would win it.

Everyone keeps talking about Man City going on a beast run in the second half of the season and sewing it up. But, if we look at their impressive second-half last season, it yielded 47 points. Assuming they win their remaining two games of this first half and repeat that mega run, they'd finish with 86 points.

Our consistency is helping us, we're the only side in the top 5 whose PPG over any six games this season has not dropped below 2 points. If we carried on our metronome impression for the rest of the season we'd get 85 points.

To hit the 90 point mark, we need 52 from the last 21 games - that's 2.48 points per game. We've averaged 2.46 points per game since the Liverpool loss, so not far off. Over the last 6-7 games we have averaged 2.7 points per game.

So the question is, can we avoid a dip and keep going? And how much better can Arsenal and Liverpool consistently get?

[Tony Daleys Shorts]

Citeh sold two of their best players, both of whom scored regular and vital goals for them, in Mahrez and  Gundogan. Neither have been adequately replaced. I don’t see a monster run of form on the horizon for them this season.

[Monty]

If Doku really gets going like he's been threatening to then there's your Mahrez replacement, and they still have De Bruyne etc to come back. Not saying they'll definitely do the monster run, but you can't rule it out.

[Rigadon]

Man City will be there or thereabouts.  Will depend how long De Bruyne takes to get back to his best.  Arsenal with Rice in their midfield are a better side than last year so they will up there too.  Not as sure about Liverpool but they won't be far off either.  I started believing we could actually do it ourselves after that win at the weekend - we aren't just a really nice footballing side anymore, we've added something else to that that just looks 'different' and akin to teams we have so often lost big games to in the past.
 

[Smithy]

If Doku really gets going like he's been threatening to then there's your Mahrez replacement, and they still have De Bruyne etc to come back. Not saying they'll definitely do the monster run, but you can't rule it out.

Yep, of all the teams capable of going on a crazy winning run, you have to say it's them.  If we're going to be in the title fight right to the end then we need to maintain our excellent form, and hope others continue to be a bit iffy by their normal standards.

I'm going to revel in all the title talk while it's still possible, but I guess in my head I've already talked myself into this being a champions league fight.  Obviously I reserve the right to switch back again after each win.

[Monty]

If Doku really gets going like he's been threatening to then there's your Mahrez replacement, and they still have De Bruyne etc to come back. Not saying they'll definitely do the monster run, but you can't rule it out.

Yep, of all the teams capable of going on a crazy winning run, you have to say it's them.  If we're going to be in the title fight right to the end then we need to maintain our excellent form, and hope others continue to be a bit iffy by their normal standards.

I'm going to revel in all the title talk while it's still possible, but I guess in my head I've already talked myself into this being a champions league fight.  Obviously I reserve the right to switch back again after each win.

Yeah for me every win is first, second, third and fourth about the Champions League race.

[Risso]

De Bruyne is back in training apparently, so would think he'll be back playing fairly early in the new year.

[Tony Daleys Shorts]

No English team has ever won 4 Titles in a row and for good reason, and for me it won’t happen this season, one of the 3 clubs above Citeh in the current table wins it.

We have a fantastic opportunity to go very close.

[WarszaVillan]

Any guesses for how many points we would need to:

1 - Win the title
2 - Finish top 4

I think the league will be a high points one, so 93

4th - 71

I don't think it will be that high this season, no one looks capable of the 10-12 winning run you need to get into the 90s.

86 for the league. Low 70s for the top 4 seems fair.

Agreed Paul, it's the most competitive it's been for years. Man City have already lost as many games as they did in the entire season two years ago. Everybody in the top few places has the potential to take points off everybody else. I think it's really going to come down to consistency, which for us means maintaining the incredible home standards, and improving the away form.

It would be difficult to improve on our recent away form - 7 points out of 9.

[Risso]

It would be difficult to improve on our recent away form - 7 points out of 9.

I meant improve performances then. We really haven't played very well in the away games, and have got away with it to a certain extent. Drawing and losing against Chelsea and Brentford until they both had a man sent off, and being battered first half by Spurs for example. It's the mark of a good team that they can get results without being at their best of course, but Emery realises that we're not putting in the same levels at home as we are away, and I'm sure he sees that nicking results isn't the best way to go about things. Need to start with keeping clean sheets on the road.

[Tony Daleys Shorts]

And if we do ‘click’ away from home, we’ll probably win the league.