Quote from: Dave on March 30, 2023, 01:45:39 PMQuote from: coreyfeldman on March 30, 2023, 01:22:46 PMNot pissed off, and yes essentially I'm rehashing the same conversation, just with some hindsight. Only reason I poked a little there was not getting any substance from the arguments other than 'risk', but I hear what you're saying.There's more to it than just risk and padding the squad in case of injuries. For example, if we assume that we're planning to buy a fantastic second striker / winger in the summer to replace Bailey in the first eleven, I think we'd be doing better right now had we just signed them in January. That can obviously be countered with "their club might not have wanted to sell them in January". Which is obviously true, but as a rule of thumb, the sort of shit-hot player that we could only possibly sign in the summer isn't the sort of player whose club will want to sell at all.They might be just as unavailable in the summer as they turned out to be in January. They might have a storming second half of the season and we find £40m added to their price. Or find that they're now being sold to Man City instead. Or that their team has qualified for the Champions League that they were sticking around to help with, and the player now wants to stay and play in the Champions League rather than joining us.If we are in a strong financial position (which I believe we are), with engaged owners (which I believe we have) and a squad that barely has enough players to name a match-day squad (which it does) and there is a small pool of very specific playerss we have decided that we really need to the extent that we don't want to consider any alternatives to those players - just buy the buggers.Equally though you can counter this argument by looking at players contracts. Say, for instance, the shit-hot winger we want to sign has 18 months left on his contract. As it is mid-season, his team rightly or wrongly will say we want full whack for him, that will be £60 million to you. We spend the £60 million on player that 6 months later is available for less than half that, because now the selling club has a deadline to get rid of him - that is then £30 million we haven't got to spend on the shit-hot CB we also want.
Quote from: coreyfeldman on March 30, 2023, 01:22:46 PMNot pissed off, and yes essentially I'm rehashing the same conversation, just with some hindsight. Only reason I poked a little there was not getting any substance from the arguments other than 'risk', but I hear what you're saying.There's more to it than just risk and padding the squad in case of injuries. For example, if we assume that we're planning to buy a fantastic second striker / winger in the summer to replace Bailey in the first eleven, I think we'd be doing better right now had we just signed them in January. That can obviously be countered with "their club might not have wanted to sell them in January". Which is obviously true, but as a rule of thumb, the sort of shit-hot player that we could only possibly sign in the summer isn't the sort of player whose club will want to sell at all.They might be just as unavailable in the summer as they turned out to be in January. They might have a storming second half of the season and we find £40m added to their price. Or find that they're now being sold to Man City instead. Or that their team has qualified for the Champions League that they were sticking around to help with, and the player now wants to stay and play in the Champions League rather than joining us.If we are in a strong financial position (which I believe we are), with engaged owners (which I believe we have) and a squad that barely has enough players to name a match-day squad (which it does) and there is a small pool of very specific playerss we have decided that we really need to the extent that we don't want to consider any alternatives to those players - just buy the buggers.
Not pissed off, and yes essentially I'm rehashing the same conversation, just with some hindsight. Only reason I poked a little there was not getting any substance from the arguments other than 'risk', but I hear what you're saying.
Quote from: chrisw1 on March 30, 2023, 02:00:35 PMQuote from: Pat Mustard on March 30, 2023, 01:50:15 PMIf we had been in any danger of going down, or were right in the mix for a European place then we should have strengthened in January - that wasn't the case though, so it's not like under Bruce where we were gambling the house. Nothing in life is ever certain, but if finishing 11th rather than 8th this season means next year we will have a better chance of Europe or a cup win because we are able to get in the players we actually want then it is a price worth paying.We're 4 points off 6. Now chuck Thuram / Tammy & Guendouzi (insert fantasy player here) into the squad.So why is it then that almost every other club does the vast majority of their important business in the summer? It isn't as easy as throwing money at it and 'getting them in', quite clearly.
Quote from: Pat Mustard on March 30, 2023, 01:50:15 PMIf we had been in any danger of going down, or were right in the mix for a European place then we should have strengthened in January - that wasn't the case though, so it's not like under Bruce where we were gambling the house. Nothing in life is ever certain, but if finishing 11th rather than 8th this season means next year we will have a better chance of Europe or a cup win because we are able to get in the players we actually want then it is a price worth paying.We're 4 points off 6. Now chuck Thuram / Tammy & Guendouzi (insert fantasy player here) into the squad.
If we had been in any danger of going down, or were right in the mix for a European place then we should have strengthened in January - that wasn't the case though, so it's not like under Bruce where we were gambling the house. Nothing in life is ever certain, but if finishing 11th rather than 8th this season means next year we will have a better chance of Europe or a cup win because we are able to get in the players we actually want then it is a price worth paying.
So, sign no one or make a panic buy, which would you choose? No other options.
As an alternative if Emery wants Guendouzi and Williams and had agreements with the players, agents and clubs to complete those deals in the summer
Quote from: chrisw1 on March 30, 2023, 02:00:35 PMQuote from: Pat Mustard on March 30, 2023, 01:50:15 PMIf we had been in any danger of going down, or were right in the mix for a European place then we should have strengthened in January - that wasn't the case though, so it's not like under Bruce where we were gambling the house. Nothing in life is ever certain, but if finishing 11th rather than 8th this season means next year we will have a better chance of Europe or a cup win because we are able to get in the players we actually want then it is a price worth paying.We're 4 points off 6. Now chuck Thuram / Tammy & Guendouzi (insert fantasy player here) into the squad.Having played more games than everyone between 5th and 7th. Since the window closed we have only lost to Arsenal, Man City and Leicester. I'll give Leicester as a game where we should have done better, (and even then this was only a few days after the window so whoever we signed might not have played), but realistically how many more points would we have won even if we'd signed another 2 players?
Quote from: paul_e on March 30, 2023, 02:29:55 PMSo, sign no one or make a panic buy, which would you choose? No other options.But outside of a message-board thought experiment, those aren't the only two options. Here's one:Quote from: paul_e on March 30, 2023, 02:29:55 PMAs an alternative if Emery wants Guendouzi and Williams and had agreements with the players, agents and clubs to complete those deals in the summerScribble out "the summer" on those agreements and stick "January 2023" there instead.
Quote from: Pat Mustard on March 30, 2023, 02:39:43 PMQuote from: chrisw1 on March 30, 2023, 02:00:35 PMQuote from: Pat Mustard on March 30, 2023, 01:50:15 PMIf we had been in any danger of going down, or were right in the mix for a European place then we should have strengthened in January - that wasn't the case though, so it's not like under Bruce where we were gambling the house. Nothing in life is ever certain, but if finishing 11th rather than 8th this season means next year we will have a better chance of Europe or a cup win because we are able to get in the players we actually want then it is a price worth paying.We're 4 points off 6. Now chuck Thuram / Tammy & Guendouzi (insert fantasy player here) into the squad.Having played more games than everyone between 5th and 7th. Since the window closed we have only lost to Arsenal, Man City and Leicester. I'll give Leicester as a game where we should have done better, (and even then this was only a few days after the window so whoever we signed might not have played), but realistically how many more points would we have won even if we'd signed another 2 players? Much of the discussion was about us being reduced to a very skimpy squad and having next to zero injury cover for the remainder of the season.You can't really assess whether those were sensible fears to have with so much of the season still left to play.
Since the window we have had injuries to Coutinho, Dendoncker, Kamara and Cash so it's not like we've been especially lucky on that front, and it hasn't seriously undermined our form.
Quote from: Pat Mustard on March 30, 2023, 04:09:11 PMSince the window we have had injuries to Coutinho, Dendoncker, Kamara and Cash so it's not like we've been especially lucky on that front, and it hasn't seriously undermined our form.Dendoncker is a reserve at best anyway, and Coutinho was hardly first choice under Emery. Cash picked up his injury since we last played, so it's impossible to say what effect his absence will have on our form.
Aside from the merits of waiting to spend money on players the manager actually wants
Quote from: Risso on March 30, 2023, 04:13:06 PMQuote from: Pat Mustard on March 30, 2023, 04:09:11 PMSince the window we have had injuries to Coutinho, Dendoncker, Kamara and Cash so it's not like we've been especially lucky on that front, and it hasn't seriously undermined our form.Dendoncker is a reserve at best anyway, and Coutinho was hardly first choice under Emery. Cash picked up his injury since we last played, so it's impossible to say what effect his absence will have on our form.The argument was what would we do if we got injuries. It's pointed out that we have had them, and suddenly it's 'no, not those players'. The point that was made was that we have a paper-thin squad, and these examples show that we have been able to cope with injuries without it having an impact so we were never that badly off. If you take out 5 first team regulars from any club they would struggle, so we're not in some uniquely bad position.Aside from the merits of waiting to spend money on players the manager actually wants though, the other important point for lots of us is we still think of how we got ourselves into the mess we did over the last 10 years (and actually further back than that if you want to look at it). Going back to John Gregory and all the way up to Steve Bruce we spent huge money and wages on substandard, stop-gap players with no long-term planning. We aren't Chelsea, Man City or now Newcastle who have effectively had access to unlimited money and can afford to make these mistakes. For once we seem to have a manager who understands what we need to do, and if it means holding back in a season when we aren't in any danger then I don't see the problem. Especially so when he has already demonstrated that there is potentially a lot more talent in the existing squad than we might have given them credit for.