January Transfer Window - The Verdict.

[Dante Lavelli]

And yet he never needs a rest.

He had a similar record at Brentford too, so this isn’t luck.  Smith made a comment along those lines when he signed him (I think). The consistency must help the manager too as he can almost guarantee what he’ll get each week and make plans to accommodate his strengths and weaknesses. 

[Dante Lavelli]

Hypothetically, Emery might still decide that Mings/McGinn/Watkins are not in his plans.  A bonus from not signing their replacements first (number 1 choice or otherwise) is that we will sell “McGinn” for close to his ceiling value.  Whereas half a season of not playing and being seen as surplus to requirements would see his value plummet.

Some self generated bonus cash like that will help us grow no end.

[Risso]

We haven't been able to name a full bench for weeks, and with Cash out it's going to be further depleted.

Yep, it's had a terrible effect on results too.

I've never had a house fire but I'm not about to go and cancel my home insurance.

[coreyfeldman]

Bit of a broken record isn't it Risso

[chrisw1]

Not trolling, genuinely interested if people have changed their minds a little?
Imo there was a lot of ott responses to January, and the fact that we have now one of the best managers and coaches in the league mean we can rely on him to improve to the team.
Seems very clear that Emery has set transfer targets and won't fuck around with average players and is happy to risk having a smaller squad than players who will never play anyway hanging around.
Just having time off made me think that end of January there was so much negativity about the window and what it meant that, actually, it's pretty alright

Not really.  I still feel we left ourselves very short and an injury to a key player - particularly Ollie - could have derailed our season.  Obviously we're not party to the negotiations, but if it was down to saving a few million on a player we want long term then I don't think the gamble was worth it.  I think the opportunity is now and to retain our best players we need to start pushing up the league.  I felt our lack of activity put that at risk.

Of course with hindsight we may manage brilliantly with no serious injuries and finish 8th.  But for me that's like a gambler saying see, I told you it would be red.

I really don't see it as being as simple as "just saving a few million quid" though. Signing players who you don't really want, just in case someone gets injured is also a massive gamble in of itself, and also not all that tempting for the incoming player given that they know they probably won't play unless x gets injured and will be replaced in the summer anyway. That makes it so hard to bring people in under these circumstances, and as has been proven time and time again, bringing in players for short periods to be at all effective is incredibly rare. Unless you get Joao Felix for £900M for 5 months.

All transfer strategies are risk, the idea of a safety net of 'cover' is false.

I just don't agree Corey.  I understand what you're saying, but for me every season is precious, particularly given the current situation re top 6, Newcastle etc.  We can't afford to be writing off seasons for jam tomorrow if we want to retain our top players.  We may get away with it and if so then great.  But that doesn't mean that it wasn't a gamble. 

And paying a bit extra doesn't mean getting shit players for the sake of it.   it means trying to force a deal on the players you want by paying a premium or maybe taking loans (eg on players with not much time left on their current deals where everyone makes a bit).  If you do the former it may cost a bit extra, but potentially you could claw some back in league placings and then the additional benefit of the playing being more ready next season and the knock on benefits that has.

I don't know who we wanted and whether deals were possible with a bit more effort, but then again neither do you.  But I do think we could and should have done something, whether the ball lands on red or not.   

[chrisw1]

Bit of a broken record isn't it Risso

Don't ask a question and then get pissed off when people answer it Corey.  Particularly when you start with the words 'I'm not trolling, genuinely interested...'

[Dave]

Bit of a broken record isn't it Risso

Weren't you the one that bumped this thread in the hope of having this same conversation again?

[coreyfeldman]

Not pissed off, and yes essentially I'm rehashing the same conversation, just with some hindsight. Only reason I poked a little there was not getting any substance from the arguments other than 'risk', but I hear what you're saying.
International breaks, too boring eh

[Pat Mustard]

Not trolling, genuinely interested if people have changed their minds a little?
Imo there was a lot of ott responses to January, and the fact that we have now one of the best managers and coaches in the league mean we can rely on him to improve to the team.
Seems very clear that Emery has set transfer targets and won't fuck around with average players and is happy to risk having a smaller squad than players who will never play anyway hanging around.
Just having time off made me think that end of January there was so much negativity about the window and what it meant that, actually, it's pretty alright

Not really.  I still feel we left ourselves very short and an injury to a key player - particularly Ollie - could have derailed our season.  Obviously we're not party to the negotiations, but if it was down to saving a few million on a player we want long term then I don't think the gamble was worth it.  I think the opportunity is now and to retain our best players we need to start pushing up the league.  I felt our lack of activity put that at risk.

Of course with hindsight we may manage brilliantly with no serious injuries and finish 8th.  But for me that's like a gambler saying see, I told you it would be red.

I really don't see it as being as simple as "just saving a few million quid" though. Signing players who you don't really want, just in case someone gets injured is also a massive gamble in of itself, and also not all that tempting for the incoming player given that they know they probably won't play unless x gets injured and will be replaced in the summer anyway. That makes it so hard to bring people in under these circumstances, and as has been proven time and time again, bringing in players for short periods to be at all effective is incredibly rare. Unless you get Joao Felix for £900M for 5 months.

All transfer strategies are risk, the idea of a safety net of 'cover' is false.

I just don't agree Corey.  I understand what you're saying, but for me every season is precious, particularly given the current situation re top 6, Newcastle etc.  We can't afford to be writing off seasons for jam tomorrow if we want to retain our top players.  We may get away with it and if so then great.  But that doesn't mean that it wasn't a gamble. 

And paying a bit extra doesn't mean getting shit players for the sake of it.   it means trying to force a deal on the players you want by paying a premium or maybe taking loans (eg on players with not much time left on their current deals where everyone makes a bit).  If you do the former it may cost a bit extra, but potentially you could claw some back in league placings and then the additional benefit of the playing being more ready next season and the knock on benefits that has.

I don't know who we wanted and whether deals were possible with a bit more effort, but then again neither do you.  But I do think we could and should have done something, whether the ball lands on red or not.

The problem is this season was pretty much already a write-off by the time the window closed, the difference between 'Red' and 'Black' is most likely finishing 8th or 12th which has been the case since January.  In those circumstances I don't really think it is going to make that much difference to either signing or retaining players wherever we finish - the more important thing to demonstrate is that we are working to a coherent plan under a manager who knows what he is doing and will be supported when it really counts.

Also, we aren't talking about getting shit players for the sake of it, we are saying that it is pointless spending money on players we either don't need as short-term cover, or keeping players whose value is plummeting on the off-chance we get an injury.  This year was the first time in god knows how long we have had the luxury of being able to move players out when they still have value, and to not have to bring in players as a short-term fix who won't fit the manager's plans.  In fact, even having a manager who seemingly has a coherent plan is a huge step-up.

[chrisw1]

People used to ask me why I supported Streve Bruce.  The answer was simple, I thought he'd get us promoted and to me with the way football finance was going that was the single most important thing.  The truth is, he nearly did.

But if we'd won that game against Fulham, whilst I would have been proved right with hindsight it wouldn't have meant Paul etc who thought he was shit were wrong.  The reality is they were right - he was shit and the result of the Fulham game wouldn't have changed that.

We may get away with our thin squad this season, but that doesn't mean Risso etc are wrong.  Just that we'll have taken a gamble and got away with it.     

[Dave]

Not pissed off, and yes essentially I'm rehashing the same conversation, just with some hindsight. Only reason I poked a little there was not getting any substance from the arguments other than 'risk', but I hear what you're saying.

There's more to it than just risk and padding the squad in case of injuries.

For example, if we assume that we're planning to buy a fantastic second striker / winger in the summer to replace Bailey in the first eleven, I think we'd be doing better right now had we just signed them in January.

That can obviously be countered with "their club might not have wanted to sell them in January". Which is obviously true, but as a rule of thumb, the sort of shit-hot player that we could only possibly sign in the summer isn't the sort of player whose club will want to sell at all.

They might be just as unavailable in the summer as they turned out to be in January. They might have a storming second half of the season and we find £40m added to their price. Or find that they're now being sold to Man City instead. Or that their team has qualified for the Champions League that they were sticking around to help with, and the player now wants to stay and play in the Champions League rather than joining us.

If we are in a strong financial position (which I believe we are), with engaged owners (which I believe we have) and a squad that barely has enough players to name a match-day squad (which it does) and there is a small pool of very specific players we have decided that we really need to the extent that we don't want to consider any alternatives to those players - just buy the buggers.

[Pat Mustard]

If we had been in any danger of going down, or were right in the mix for a European place then we should have strengthened in January - that wasn't the case though, so it's not like under Bruce where we were gambling the house.  Nothing in life is ever certain, but if finishing 11th rather than 8th this season means next year we will have a better chance of Europe or a cup win because we are able to get in the players we actually want then it is a price worth paying.

[Pat Mustard]

Not pissed off, and yes essentially I'm rehashing the same conversation, just with some hindsight. Only reason I poked a little there was not getting any substance from the arguments other than 'risk', but I hear what you're saying.

There's more to it than just risk and padding the squad in case of injuries.

For example, if we assume that we're planning to buy a fantastic second striker / winger in the summer to replace Bailey in the first eleven, I think we'd be doing better right now had we just signed them in January.

That can obviously be countered with "their club might not have wanted to sell them in January". Which is obviously true, but as a rule of thumb, the sort of shit-hot player that we could only possibly sign in the summer isn't the sort of player whose club will want to sell at all.

They might be just as unavailable in the summer as they turned out to be in January. They might have a storming second half of the season and we find £40m added to their price. Or find that they're now being sold to Man City instead. Or that their team has qualified for the Champions League that they were sticking around to help with, and the player now wants to stay and play in the Champions League rather than joining us.

If we are in a strong financial position (which I believe we are), with engaged owners (which I believe we have) and a squad that barely has enough players to name a match-day squad (which it does) and there is a small pool of very specific playerss we have decided that we really need to the extent that we don't want to consider any alternatives to those players - just buy the buggers.

Equally though you can counter this argument by looking at players contracts.  Say, for instance, the shit-hot winger we want to sign has 18 months left on his contract.  As it is mid-season, his team rightly or wrongly will say we want full whack for him, that will be £60 million to you.  We spend the £60 million on player that 6 months later is available for less than half that, because now the selling club has a deadline to get rid of him - that is then £30 million we haven't got to spend on the shit-hot CB we also want.

It's also then not just a case of saying our owners are loaded, so spend the extra £30 million as well - FFP, P&S or whatever it is now will stop us from doing that.

[chrisw1]

If we had been in any danger of going down, or were right in the mix for a European place then we should have strengthened in January - that wasn't the case though, so it's not like under Bruce where we were gambling the house.  Nothing in life is ever certain, but if finishing 11th rather than 8th this season means next year we will have a better chance of Europe or a cup win because we are able to get in the players we actually want then it is a price worth paying.

We're 4 points off 6.  Now chuck Thuram / Tammy & Guendouzi (insert fantasy player here) into the squad.

[coreyfeldman]

If we had been in any danger of going down, or were right in the mix for a European place then we should have strengthened in January - that wasn't the case though, so it's not like under Bruce where we were gambling the house.  Nothing in life is ever certain, but if finishing 11th rather than 8th this season means next year we will have a better chance of Europe or a cup win because we are able to get in the players we actually want then it is a price worth paying.

We're 4 points off 6.  Now chuck Thuram / Tammy & Guendouzi (insert fantasy player here) into the squad.

So why is it then that almost every other club does the vast majority of their important business in the summer? It isn't as easy as throwing money at it and 'getting them in', quite clearly.