January Transfer Window - The Verdict.

[ChicagoLion]

I freely admit I might be wrong

Might have been better to leave it at that point then.

Ha, that could be said for all us regarding most things Villa

The difference is Paul e has admitted he might be wrong which is a pretty rare event on here.

To clarify, not by Paul e as such, just people admitting they are wrong even when they quite obviously are.

[Clark W Griswold]

I understood it Paul, I just didn't agree with it.

And neither did anybody else.

Can you prove that nobody else agreed, I'll need direct quotes from every single poster or you're wrong.

In fairness Paul, you've argued for the last 4-5 hours about something that you admit finding 'inconsequential'. What's the point then?

Strange post to have quoted to make that point (not a criticism I just think your point relates to many other posts better than this one).

To answer the question, I'm bored, right now I have loads of work waiting for budget approval

If I approve it for you will you go and get on with it ;-)

[pauliewalnuts]

I understood it Paul, I just didn't agree with it.

And neither did anybody else.

Can you prove that nobody else agreed, I'll need direct quotes from every single poster or you're wrong.

In fairness Paul, you've argued for the last 4-5 hours about something that you admit finding 'inconsequential'. What's the point then?

Strange post to have quoted to make that point (not a criticism I just think your point relates to many other posts better than this one).

To answer the question, I'm bored, right now I have loads of work waiting for budget approval

If I approve it for you will you go and get on with it ;-)

Ha ha ha, that made me do a big laugh.

Sorry, Paul, not personal.

[paul_e]

I understood it Paul, I just didn't agree with it.

And neither did anybody else.

Can you prove that nobody else agreed, I'll need direct quotes from every single poster or you're wrong.

In fairness Paul, you've argued for the last 4-5 hours about something that you admit finding 'inconsequential'. What's the point then?

Strange post to have quoted to make that point (not a criticism I just think your point relates to many other posts better than this one).

To answer the question, I'm bored, right now I have loads of work waiting for budget approval

If I approve it for you will you go and get on with it ;-)

I fucking wish someone would.

[paul_e]

I freely admit I might be wrong

Might have been better to leave it at that point then.

Ha, that could be said for all us regarding most things Villa

The difference is Paul e has admitted he might be wrong which is a pretty rare event on here.

To clarify, not by Paul e as such, just people admitting they are wrong even when they quite obviously are.

When it's an opinion I'm always willing to admit I might be wrong, but that doesn't mean I won't try to back myself or get annoyed if people dismiss it without a thought.

[LeeB]

I was wrong about the Rugby thing the other day, although I wear that particular badge of ignorance with immense pride.

[pauliewalnuts]

I was wrong about the Rugby thing the other day, although I wear that particular badge of ignorance with immense pride.

Said it once, I'll say it again, Rugby is absolutely shit.

[paul_e]

I was wrong about the Rugby thing the other day, although I wear that particular badge of ignorance with immense pride.

I found that funny more than anything. I've played with props that were close to that sort of height, but they were about the same around the waist as well, at his size and shape Weghorst would come off the pitch looking like a pretzel.

[chrisw1]

If we are waiting for those signings in the summer (and don’t forget some of the deadweight we have ‘cleared’ first is coming back then, ie Sanson and Nakamba so it’s not like we’ve totally cleaned the house) then we have a better chance the higher up the table we finish.

My concern is that by getting shot of all the strikers bar one (who, for all his running, is no Gerd Muller in front of goal), by not even adding a couple more faces as loans, we are going to blow the best chance in ages to be even near the European places - something which would help us attract those players we are holding out for, and which makes it less likely we end up talking about convincing our best players not to leave because 12th place is hardly indicative of a club going places.

Not if they then get Champions League Newcastle doing what we are trying to do in one year making eyes at them.

I just don’t get it when I see people - sometimes the same people who get so riled about giving up in the cups - on here just wiping off the remaining half a season. 

Anyway, fingers crossed but it looks a bit half arsed to me and smells of our usual failing of never being able to make that decisive next step.

I completely agree with this.  Well put Paulie.

With a risk of getting to Paul levels of conjecture ( ), if for instance we could have got Guendouzi and, say, Henrique for an extra £15m or so in total, perhaps even Dembele loan for c£3m (I know, I know Lee, but he does score) then I think it may well have been prudent to do so.  It would have been insurance against a potential form crash (injury led or not) and possibly been enough to have a proper crack at a European place.  Obviously the potential higher league placing reward would have part funded this, but for me the really key thing for me is the knock on effect on potential recruitment and player retention.

I know for every Newcastle there's and Everton who haven't spent well, but really they are the perfect case study.  They got a manager they truly trusted and paid well over the odds in that first window to get players many laughed at.  But they paid the premium and their positive finish gave them the launching pad to do the business they did in the summer.  The changes to their squad have been relatively modest, but they paid what they had to to get the few key pieces in to place.  Their reward is a cup final and prob a champs league place, all within 12-18 months.

IF we really trust Emery as much as people say, then the risk of 'panick buying flops' would be minimal.  For me, if Guendouzi is a key piece in the jigsaw, we should have done it now even if we had to pay the premium.  If may have put us in a far stronger starting point in the summer and also (as Risso has previously pointed out) meaning much less surgery and players to bed in in that window.

If we're not careful in the autumn it will be 'well what do you expect with 5 new players to settle in, but NEXT season is when we'll really see the benefit'  Just as Kamara and Martinez get bored....       

Jam tomorrow shouldn't always be the answer.

[Dave]

I know for every Newcastle there's and Everton who haven't spent well, but really they are the perfect case study.  They got a manager they truly trusted and paid well over the odds in that first window to get players many laughed at.  But they paid the premium and their positive finish gave them the launching pad to do the business they did in the summer.  The changes to their squad have been relatively modest, but they paid what they had to to get the few key pieces in to place.  Their reward is a cup final and prob a champs league place, all within 12-18 months.

To add to that - they also show that getting in short-term stop-gaps isn't always a terrible thing. Newcastle spent £25m on Chris Wood which pretty much sent Burnley down.

Twelve months later they're shipping him on and in the summer will get two-thirds of their money back from Forest. I bet there isn't a Newcastle fan who considers that twelve month stop-gap to have been a waste of money or an opportunity missed.

If we'd chucked £15m at one of the attackers that Southampton or Bournemouth did (or a different one altogether), we get four or five goals from them and it turns out we're upgrading them again in a season or two, is it the end of the world?

Or they might turn out to be amazing.

[paul_e]

If we are waiting for those signings in the summer (and don’t forget some of the deadweight we have ‘cleared’ first is coming back then, ie Sanson and Nakamba so it’s not like we’ve totally cleaned the house) then we have a better chance the higher up the table we finish.

My concern is that by getting shot of all the strikers bar one (who, for all his running, is no Gerd Muller in front of goal), by not even adding a couple more faces as loans, we are going to blow the best chance in ages to be even near the European places - something which would help us attract those players we are holding out for, and which makes it less likely we end up talking about convincing our best players not to leave because 12th place is hardly indicative of a club going places.

Not if they then get Champions League Newcastle doing what we are trying to do in one year making eyes at them.

I just don’t get it when I see people - sometimes the same people who get so riled about giving up in the cups - on here just wiping off the remaining half a season. 

Anyway, fingers crossed but it looks a bit half arsed to me and smells of our usual failing of never being able to make that decisive next step.

I completely agree with this.  Well put Paulie.

With a risk of getting to Paul levels of conjecture ( ), if for instance we could have got Guendouzi and, say, Henrique for an extra £15m or so in total, perhaps even Dembele loan for c£3m (I know, I know Lee, but he does score) then I think it may well have been prudent to do so.  It would have been insurance against a potential form crash (injury led or not) and possibly been enough to have a proper crack at a European place.  Obviously the potential higher league placing reward would have part funded this, but for me the really key thing for me is the knock on effect on potential recruitment and player retention.

I know for every Newcastle there's and Everton who haven't spent well, but really they are the perfect case study.  They got a manager they truly trusted and paid well over the odds in that first window to get players many laughed at.  But they paid the premium and their positive finish gave them the launching pad to do the business they did in the summer.  The changes to their squad have been relatively modest, but they paid what they had to to get the few key pieces in to place.  Their reward is a cup final and prob a champs league place, all within 12-18 months.

IF we really trust Emery as much as people say, then the risk of 'panick buying flops' would be minimal.  For me, if Guendouzi is a key piece in the jigsaw, we should have done it now even if we had to pay the premium.  If may have put us in a far stronger starting point in the summer and also (as Risso has previously pointed out) meaning much less surgery and players to bed in in that window.

If we're not careful in the autumn it will be 'well what do you expect with 5 new players to settle in, but NEXT season is when we'll really see the benefit'  Just as Kamara and Martinez get bored....       

Jam tomorrow shouldn't always be the answer.

Firstly - Angry face thingy.

Secondly the form crash thing is a step to far in conjecture for me. If Watkins gets injured at the weekend and our form collapses for 2 months whilst Duran shows the world he's nowhere near ready then yes the drop in league position can be attributed to the transfer window. Any other reason (ignoring the same problem in goal, on the wing or in central midfield as the other positions where people have expressed their concerns regarding depth) and there's just too many variables to consider to make that conclusion.

We just don't know if adding the wrong player to the mix would've made things better or worse. By wrong player I don't mean a punt on someone a bit shit like Baston or Holt but rather just someone Emery was unsure about. The extra depth could easily be offset by them just not fitting in. From the outside I think it feels a lot easier to say just sign someone else from the list but without knowing why they weren't our first/second/third choice.

I do agree on the guendouzi point though, if he's who we really wanted then I'd have liked us to push a little harder to complete that one. Of course as Arsenal showed with Dougie and Caicedo that still doesn't guarantee anything, no matter how much you want someone there doesn't need to be an upper limit on what you think they're worth.

I dunno why but this window just doesn't feel like a 'jam tomorrow' one, I look at how we've played since Emery arrived (even in the poorer league performances I don't think anyone has overrun us) and it feels different to me. I know other people aren't in the same place but going for a proper manager has convinced me that we do still have the ambition to be more than midtable fodder.

[LeeB]

I know for every Newcastle there's and Everton who haven't spent well, but really they are the perfect case study.  They got a manager they truly trusted and paid well over the odds in that first window to get players many laughed at.  But they paid the premium and their positive finish gave them the launching pad to do the business they did in the summer.  The changes to their squad have been relatively modest, but they paid what they had to to get the few key pieces in to place.  Their reward is a cup final and prob a champs league place, all within 12-18 months.

To add to that - they also show that getting in short-term stop-gaps isn't always a terrible thing. Newcastle spent £25m on Chris Wood which pretty much sent Burnley down.

Twelve months later they're shipping him on and in the summer will get two-thirds of their money back from Forest. I bet there isn't a Newcastle fan who considers that twelve month stop-gap to have been a waste of money or an opportunity missed.

If we'd chucked £15m at one of the attackers that Southampton or Bournemouth did (or a different one altogether), we get four or five goals from them and it turns out we're upgrading them again in a season or two, is it the end of the world?

Or they might turn out to be amazing.

Danny Ings?

[chrisw1]

I was talking mainly about injuries - most obviously Watkins, but an injury to Kamara or Luiz would also really unsettle and Guendozi would have pretty seemlessly filled that gap.  But I also think we may have a dip in form anyway.  We've ridden our luck in a few games which could really have gone either way if we're honest and whilst we're certainly better coached now, we still have weaknesses.  With Man City and Arsenal coming up, we may see a dip.  I'd have preferred the insurance of some signings to give Emery options IF that happens.

With that said, I also have a sneaking feeling that Duran may hit the ground running, so I may be worrying about nothing.  But still, I wished we'd bagged one or two more to make the summer business easier.   

[Dave]

Secondly the form crash thing is a step to far in conjecture for me. If Watkins gets injured at the weekend and our form collapses for 2 months whilst Duran shows the world he's nowhere near ready then yes the drop in league position can be attributed to the transfer window.

I'd argue it doesn't need Watkins to get injured for that judgement to be made, just any scenario where we haven't scored enough goals.

Watkins didn't need to be injured in (for example) the game against Wolves to look ineffective, and having an alternative striker was the reason we ended up with an equaliser and a point.

[PaulWinch again]

I know for every Newcastle there's and Everton who haven't spent well, but really they are the perfect case study.  They got a manager they truly trusted and paid well over the odds in that first window to get players many laughed at.  But they paid the premium and their positive finish gave them the launching pad to do the business they did in the summer.  The changes to their squad have been relatively modest, but they paid what they had to to get the few key pieces in to place.  Their reward is a cup final and prob a champs league place, all within 12-18 months.

To add to that - they also show that getting in short-term stop-gaps isn't always a terrible thing. Newcastle spent £25m on Chris Wood which pretty much sent Burnley down.

Twelve months later they're shipping him on and in the summer will get two-thirds of their money back from Forest. I bet there isn't a Newcastle fan who considers that twelve month stop-gap to have been a waste of money or an opportunity missed.

If we'd chucked £15m at one of the attackers that Southampton or Bournemouth did (or a different one altogether), we get four or five goals from them and it turns out we're upgrading them again in a season or two, is it the end of the world?

Or they might turn out to be amazing.

Yes exactly that - you’re telling me that there wasn’t a striker we could have got in that wouldn’t have added value without spending ludicrous amounts? No chance. Instead we’re left with hardly any options. There’s such a thing as striking whilst the iron is hot and who knows we may get lucky, but we’ve created unnecessary risk through our own inaction.