January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread

[kippaxvilla2]

Unai was at the City Ground tonight.

[ozzjim]

Just watching a local game I would assume.

[VILLA MOLE]

could be watching Brennan Jonson ?

[darren woolley]

could be watching Brennan Jonson ?

He'd be a good signing for us.

[TonyD]

Are we going to sign another striker?

[Pat Mustard]

Two things about this window: How the hell does Brighton manage to consistently bring in high-sell-on players (ref Ciacedo)? And how many right backs does Tottingham need (ref Porro)?

The Brighton model of developing players requires two things, excellent scouting, and the willingness to let "promising" players have a run of twenty to thirty games at Premier League level before they're cut adrift. We have the first, but we do not have the luxury of the second. No club with genuine European aspirations does.  If a player isn't performing quickly, they're out. We can't afford a string of 5/6 out of 10 performances in the hope they'll become 8s or 9s with time.  Brighton spend a lot of money on players in the £5-10-ish million bracket.  Many of them don't really make an impact, but some of them turn out to be very good indeed. If a player shows promise, they get that game time other clubs wouldn't give them. A season later they can be worth a relative fortune.

We all know about Bissouma, Cururella, Ciacedo, but no one remembers Undav, Sima, Kozlowski (who cost nearly £30m between them, all in the last year).  It's like a lot of clubs that aren't our own - we remember their successes, but never their failures.  In the same way they probably don't remember Wesley or Sanson, but think we're great at recruitment because of Kamara.

I don’t think this is a very accurate or helpful answer to the question, sorry. I have a little bit of inside knowledge of how they do it - it’s not top secret but it’s not widely discussed.

They essentially are incredibly data focused. They are run by a professional gambler who has built a team of many stats / maths PHDs to identify incorrect odds, and bet heavily on them when they found. He has made a fortune and has decided to apply this to football (I think he also owns aBelgian club).

Their scouting network is not amazing, but they use extensive data analysis to focus on 3-4 targets of the radar of the big clubs (they explicitly identify certain characteristics that correlate with success, and others which seem to be highly valued but which they in fact ignore). Not every purchase is a success but they are looking for very high ceilings with players, so if they hit one in three, say (I don’t know their actual target or even if they have one) they will make massive returns and be able to punch above their weight.

This is the key difference to everyone else (except Brentford, who are also run by a professional gambler and have a very similar philosophy) - incredibly data led , no reliance on the old eye test or the opinion of a couple of charasmatic old pros.

As I understand it, there’s no explicit philosophy of give them 30 games, other than a trust in the underlying analytics and a discounting of short term variance to the norm in outcomes (confused for form by nearly all pundits).

Just a bit more on the Brighton and Brentford (or more accurately the Bloom and Benham) models.  As part of their gambling operations I understand that they have built their own data analysis tools/software, which are completely their own - no-one else has access to the same data modelling that they use.  Almost all other clubs are working with the same systems, which means they are looking at the same data and by and large valuing the same players relative to their playing style.

[ChicagoLion]

I find this Gambling Technology stuff fascinating and the more I read about it the more I want it to fail.

[olaftab]

Unai was at the City Ground tonight.

And hopefully he noted that none of the Forest players had that little bit of additional quality that may suit us or perhaps he wants to make a Bid for Fernades.

[chrisw1]

Agree about Pulisic, he’d fit in well with us.

Before we go off on a frolic about Pulisic, I think it is only Ziyech who has been linked?

[chrisw1]

could be watching Brennan Jonson ?

He'd be a good signing for us.

Forest are buying not selling at the moment.  No way this window.

[pauliewalnuts]

could be watching Brennan Jonson ?

He'd be a good signing for us.

Forest are buying not selling at the moment.  No way this window.

Besides, we need to get out of this mindset of buying players of the same level as we have (I'd argue he's not even that yet), and start to buy significantly better ones.

[Villafirst]

could be watching Brennan Jonson ?

He'd be a good signing for us.

Forest are buying not selling at the moment.  No way this window.

How will Forest justify FFP? They've spent a fortune since promotion.

[Martyn Smith]

I find this Gambling Technology stuff fascinating and the more I read about it the more I want it to fail.

I hate the way stats has taken over everything. I don't mind their being used as an information bank for those who understand the soul of a business, but when they are allowed to supercede expert judgement, that is when I turn away.

In the first full time permanent job I had, a quarter of a century plus ago now, our MD told us 'we are all run by accountants now'. What was once a useful support tool, i.e. data, has now become king, to the detriment of the subjective expert opinion which was once relied upon.

[jwarry]

Some suggestion he went to watch Elanga who came on in the 85th minute…..

[LeeB]

Some suggestion he went to watch The Elanga who came on in the 85th minute…..

Has he renamed himself like 'Andrew Cole'?