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Author Topic: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread  (Read 391135 times)

Offline Smithy

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2400 on: January 25, 2023, 07:46:33 PM »
Two things about this window: How the hell does Brighton manage to consistently bring in high-sell-on players (ref Ciacedo)? And how many right backs does Tottingham need (ref Porro)?

The Brighton model of developing players requires two things, excellent scouting, and the willingness to let "promising" players have a run of twenty to thirty games at Premier League level before they're cut adrift. We have the first, but we do not have the luxury of the second. No club with genuine European aspirations does.  If a player isn't performing quickly, they're out. We can't afford a string of 5/6 out of 10 performances in the hope they'll become 8s or 9s with time.  Brighton spend a lot of money on players in the £5-10-ish million bracket.  Many of them don't really make an impact, but some of them turn out to be very good indeed. If a player shows promise, they get that game time other clubs wouldn't give them. A season later they can be worth a relative fortune.

We all know about Bissouma, Cururella, Ciacedo, but no one remembers Undav, Sima, Kozlowski (who cost nearly £30m between them, all in the last year).  It's like a lot of clubs that aren't our own - we remember their successes, but never their failures.  In the same way they probably don't remember Wesley or Sanson, but think we're great at recruitment because of Kamara.

Offline Rigadon

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2401 on: January 25, 2023, 07:47:11 PM »
Spurs can never quite have enough midfielders.

Twas ever thus.  If they were based anywhere other than London their last half-decade would be seen as a period of overachieving and a sure thing to return to mid table where they belong.  They are incredibly annoying - more so than the others clubs who have found themselves in the top 6 at a time of extreme wealth for that top 6.

Online dave.woodhall

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2402 on: January 25, 2023, 07:58:09 PM »
The reason Brighton are so good is that they had Dan Ashworth working for them.

Offline PaulTheVillan

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2403 on: January 25, 2023, 08:13:14 PM »
Carlton Palmer spotted at BMH

Online Bent Neilsens Screamer

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2404 on: January 25, 2023, 08:22:47 PM »
Two things about this window: How the hell does Brighton manage to consistently bring in high-sell-on players (ref Ciacedo)? And how many right backs does Tottingham need (ref Porro)?

The Brighton model of developing players requires two things, excellent scouting, and the willingness to let "promising" players have a run of twenty to thirty games at Premier League level before they're cut adrift. We have the first, but we do not have the luxury of the second. No club with genuine European aspirations does.  If a player isn't performing quickly, they're out. We can't afford a string of 5/6 out of 10 performances in the hope they'll become 8s or 9s with time.



Do we have excellent scouting?

Offline Dante Lavelli

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2405 on: January 25, 2023, 08:31:29 PM »
Two things about this window: How the hell does Brighton manage to consistently bring in high-sell-on players (ref Ciacedo)? And how many right backs does Tottingham need (ref Porro)?

The Brighton model of developing players requires two things, excellent scouting, and the willingness to let "promising" players have a run of twenty to thirty games at Premier League level before they're cut adrift. We have the first, but we do not have the luxury of the second. No club with genuine European aspirations does.  If a player isn't performing quickly, they're out. We can't afford a string of 5/6 out of 10 performances in the hope they'll become 8s or 9s with time.  Brighton spend a lot of money on players in the £5-10-ish million bracket.  Many of them don't really make an impact, but some of them turn out to be very good indeed. If a player shows promise, they get that game time other clubs wouldn't give them. A season later they can be worth a relative fortune.

We all know about Bissouma, Cururella, Ciacedo, but no one remembers Undav, Sima, Kozlowski (who cost nearly £30m between them, all in the last year).  It's like a lot of clubs that aren't our own - we remember their successes, but never their failures.  In the same way they probably don't remember Wesley or Sanson, but think we're great at recruitment because of Kamara.

Part of their model is that they will let players leave too if the terms are right.  To paraphrase someone high up in the club they said “we will let a player go as long as they leave through the front door.”  So no sulking, engineering moves or trying to leave in the cheap. 

Online Toronto Villa

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2406 on: January 25, 2023, 08:57:35 PM »
Carlton Palmer spotted at BMH

Benny McCarthy too

Offline Small Rodent

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2407 on: January 25, 2023, 09:14:12 PM »
Spurs can never quite have enough midfielders.

They go through midfielders quicker than a laxative through a very short grandmother.

Offline Vegas

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2408 on: January 25, 2023, 09:48:26 PM »
Two things about this window: How the hell does Brighton manage to consistently bring in high-sell-on players (ref Ciacedo)? And how many right backs does Tottingham need (ref Porro)?

The Brighton model of developing players requires two things, excellent scouting, and the willingness to let "promising" players have a run of twenty to thirty games at Premier League level before they're cut adrift. We have the first, but we do not have the luxury of the second. No club with genuine European aspirations does.  If a player isn't performing quickly, they're out. We can't afford a string of 5/6 out of 10 performances in the hope they'll become 8s or 9s with time.  Brighton spend a lot of money on players in the £5-10-ish million bracket.  Many of them don't really make an impact, but some of them turn out to be very good indeed. If a player shows promise, they get that game time other clubs wouldn't give them. A season later they can be worth a relative fortune.

We all know about Bissouma, Cururella, Ciacedo, but no one remembers Undav, Sima, Kozlowski (who cost nearly £30m between them, all in the last year).  It's like a lot of clubs that aren't our own - we remember their successes, but never their failures.  In the same way they probably don't remember Wesley or Sanson, but think we're great at recruitment because of Kamara.

I don’t think this is a very accurate or helpful answer to the question, sorry. I have a little bit of inside knowledge of how they do it - it’s not top secret but it’s not widely discussed.

They essentially are incredibly data focused. They are run by a professional gambler who has built a team of many stats / maths PHDs to identify incorrect odds, and bet heavily on them when they found. He has made a fortune and has decided to apply this to football (I think he also owns aBelgian club).

Their scouting network is not amazing, but they use extensive data analysis to focus on 3-4 targets of the radar of the big clubs (they explicitly identify certain characteristics that correlate with success, and others which seem to be highly valued but which they in fact ignore). Not every purchase is a success but they are looking for very high ceilings with players, so if they hit one in three, say (I don’t know their actual target or even if they have one) they will make massive returns and be able to punch above their weight.

This is the key difference to everyone else (except Brentford, who are also run by a professional gambler and have a very similar philosophy) - incredibly data led , no reliance on the old eye test or the opinion of a couple of charasmatic old pros.

As I understand it, there’s no explicit philosophy of give them 30 games, other than a trust in the underlying analytics and a discounting of short term variance to the norm in outcomes (confused for form by nearly all pundits).

Offline OCD

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2409 on: January 25, 2023, 09:58:03 PM »
Wes Edens did an interview where he emphasised the importance of data. Saying that decisions are easy when the data is there to make them.

Mentioned here - https://www.expressandstar.com/sport/football/aston-villa/2020/04/18/aston-villa-co-owner-wes-edens-ready-to-embrace-data/

Offline brontebilly

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2410 on: January 25, 2023, 10:03:56 PM »
Hakim Ziyech according to greg evans

Agent hawking him around most likely. Seems a replica of Bailey and equally inconsistent. No for me.

Online Bent Neilsens Screamer

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2411 on: January 25, 2023, 10:10:06 PM »
Hakim Ziyech according to greg evans

Agent hawking him around most likely. Seems a replica of Bailey and equally inconsistent. No for me.

Decent in Holland, struggled here. Got a good pass and set piece on him but not particularly quick. On his Chelsea form he’s not a massive upgrade imo.

Offline Dante Lavelli

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2412 on: January 25, 2023, 10:12:19 PM »
Hakim Ziyech according to greg evans

Agent hawking him around most likely. Seems a replica of Bailey and equally inconsistent. No for me.

“Chelsea fans might be confused by all the running around the Moroccan Ziyech is doing” was a comment on a podcast.  suggests he can be a touch lazy when not part of a teams’ main plans.

Offline brontebilly

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2413 on: January 25, 2023, 10:22:56 PM »
There's a load of attacking players struggling at Chelsea, even towards end of Tuchel's time and it's continued. So it can't be that they are all poor players. Gallagher looks a pub league player these days for example, he was flying last season at Palace. Pulisic for me would be a huge upgrade on Coutinho for example and even Buendia let's be honest. Think he would fit in well with us, good age, profile. Maybe a bit like Grealish he needs to be the main man to see his best form. Does need to get stronger and a bit tougher.

Online Bent Neilsens Screamer

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Re: January 2023 Transfer Rumours, Discussions and Done Deals Thread
« Reply #2414 on: January 25, 2023, 10:24:16 PM »
Agree about Pulisic, he’d fit in well with us.

 


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