Unai Emery

[LeeS]

Of course we have over performed. How can anyone debate that (although this is a site for debate)? We have been calling Unai our “cheat code” for a while now. As long as we have him, I am confident we will keep gate-crashing that party “we haven’t been invited to”.

[letsshakehands]

We absolutely over-performed last season, given the restrictions we were under, the injuries we suffered, and the strength of the competition. I always thought that while one of Buendia/Sancho/Bailey/Guessand were guaranteed to be in the team, we would do incredibly well to qualify for European competition. And we did that, and then some.

[Matt C]

We’ve overachieved every season he’s been with us but last season was different level given the mess of the summer

[paul_e]

My argument isn't that we didn't over-achieve or exceed expectations, I think both of those are true. My issue is entirely with over-performed as the phrasing. As I said it probably is just arguing semantics for many people but in a sport so heavily loaded with performance metrics and armchair analysts misusing them over-performed comes with a clear expectation that we'll revert to form eventually and I think that's a misunderstanding of what we've done.

I guarantee that when a twat like Mashiter talks about over-performing he doesn't mean against our wage bill or any of the other valid points that are worth discussing. He means that he's looked at an xG adjusted table (which as I've said many times is something that shouldn't exist and completely misunderstands why the stat exists)  and seen we should be nowhere near where we have finished for the last few years.

Exceed expectations or over-achieve are largely positive things that show going beyond limitations, over-perform too often comes with an idea that you haven't really earned your achievements and that the foundations aren't there to sustain it.

[Garyth]

One interesting (at least to me, while there's no football on) thought experiment is where your gut says we'd finish if Emery left right now and was replaced with a generic, average, PL manager (ie. not great, but not horrible either) for the season.

Even with a few more incomings I think
- I'd be suprised (and delighted) if we finished top 5
- I'd mostly expect us to finish somewhere around 6-8
- I'd be disappointed with anything less than that.

[PeterWithesShin]

If we assume we'd have had the same players we'd have most likely finished 8th-11th last season.

[letsshakehands]

My argument isn't that we didn't over-achieve or exceed expectations, I think both of those are true. My issue is entirely with over-performed as the phrasing. As I said it probably is just arguing semantics for many people but in a sport so heavily loaded with performance metrics and armchair analysts misusing them over-performed comes with a clear expectation that we'll revert to form eventually and I think that's a misunderstanding of what we've done.

I guarantee that when a twat like Mashiter talks about over-performing he doesn't mean against our wage bill or any of the other valid points that are worth discussing. He means that he's looked at an xG adjusted table (which as I've said many times is something that shouldn't exist and completely misunderstands why the stat exists)  and seen we should be nowhere near where we have finished for the last few years.

Exceed expectations or over-achieve are largely positive things that show going beyond limitations, over-perform too often comes with an idea that you haven't really earned your achievements and that the foundations aren't there to sustain it.

Over-performed vs xG is a complete nonsense, agreed. We essentially broke the xG model for a period last season by playing to strengths in a way it doesn't factor into its model. That's not a criticism of xG as a stat, it's of the way it's misused in exactly the way Mashiter is doing in this article.

[Percy McCarthy]

My argument isn't that we didn't over-achieve or exceed expectations, I think both of those are true. My issue is entirely with over-performed as the phrasing. As I said it probably is just arguing semantics for many people but in a sport so heavily loaded with performance metrics and armchair analysts misusing them over-performed comes with a clear expectation that we'll revert to form eventually and I think that's a misunderstanding of what we've done.

I guarantee that when a twat like Mashiter talks about over-performing he doesn't mean against our wage bill or any of the other valid points that are worth discussing. He means that he's looked at an xG adjusted table (which as I've said many times is something that shouldn't exist and completely misunderstands why the stat exists)  and seen we should be nowhere near where we have finished for the last few years.

Exceed expectations or over-achieve are largely positive things that show going beyond limitations, over-perform too often comes with an idea that you haven't really earned your achievements and that the foundations aren't there to sustain it.

I think he means a club like Villa (which doesn’t deliver as many clicks as others) shouldn’t be able to be so high in the league or win cups.

[usav]

If we assume we'd have had the same players we'd have most likely finished 8th-11th last season.

Agreed.  It can't be underestimated just how crucial Emery's planning is for winning games.

[RamboandBruno]

I think we can all agree that when the Premier League top 4 predictions of the BBC football commentators are issued, Villa will not be tipped by a single one of them.

Stephen Warnock is about the only one who ever predicts us as top 4

[cdbearsfan]

I think we can all agree that when the Premier League top 4 predictions of the BBC football commentators are issued, Villa will not be tipped by a single one of them.

Or by me.

[TopDeck113]

Arguably the top four is going to be harder to predict than for many a year.  Most of the usual suspects are under new or nearly-new management and not all of those will turn out as hoped or expected.  Plus if corners are now going to be policed as they should, Arsenal are somehow going to have to score more goals from open play.

All things considered, there might be a surprise finisher in the top places and if we embed our new players quickly, there's no reason that it can't be us.

[TheToffnar]

I've given up on predicting before the season starts.

We where all similarly gloomy about other teams bolstering this time last year and look how that turned out. 

[Percy McCarthy]

I've given up on predicting before the season starts.

We where all similarly gloomy about other teams bolstering this time last year and look how that turned out.

All? lol.

[john e]

We finish in the European places every season not because we spend more money on players than everyone else not because we have better players than everyone else but because we have a better manager than everyone else