Unai Emery

[paul_e]

As I've said many times, it is a load of bollocks because IT'S NOT WHAT THE STAT IS MEANT FOR.

xG was designed to be an improvement on just having the number of shots/shots on target to show how well you've played in attack, that's it. Over long periods there is often a degree of of correlation between xG and how many goals are scored, much like there is a correlation between shots and goals but tables like that are utter nonsense.

Specifically to the Rogers chance mentioned, all xG uses for it's calculation is distance from goal, angle, ball height and shot type. So Rogers had a shot from fairly central, about 4 yards out with his left foot and the ball was very low to the ground, with no more context you'd expect that chance to be scored most of the time.

[Garyth]

Can anyone explain to me that that’s not a load of bollocks?

I agree, It’s definitely horse shit.

Lads, it's not that hard (and been explained by many people).

XG doesn't provide a value for 'Is your team any good', it only gives you 'from thousands of similar shots, how many have gone in' - no adjustment for game state, or specific player involved, etc etc.

Stop pretending it's some sort of judgement saying Villa are bad at football - in fact, it's saying the opposite .... eg. Rogers is outperforming what is usually expected in the positions he gets into. The top scoring players in the league each year usually outperform their xG over the season - in other words, they are (surprise!) better than the average player at scoring. Similar with the teams that win it.


One (of many) explainer: https://learning.coachesvoice.com/cv/expected-goals-xg-explained/

[ChicagoLion]

XG XG XG XG
Born is the King of Nerdism.


To the tune of the First Noel

Happy Christmas 🎄

[SamTheMouse]

I can't wait til it's ex-xg and we never have to hear about it any more.

[pauliewalnuts]

Stop pretending it's some sort of judgement saying Villa are bad at football - in fact, it's saying the opposite

It is being portrayed as the reason it's 'not sustainable', though. That's the judgement people are getting annoyed about.

[ChicagoLion]

Stop pretending it's some sort of judgement saying Villa are bad at football - in fact, it's saying the opposite

It is being portrayed as the reason it's 'not sustainable', though. That's the judgement people are getting annoyed about.

Agree, the issue with us not sustaining a title challenge IMO is squad depth.
 

[Rigadon]

The unsustainables carry on sustaining thanks to Mr Emery.

[Percy McCarthy]

So our form is unsustainable, based on the fact that xG can’t accurately identify what is a good chance (Rogers second goal v West Ham) and a fleeting, difficult one (Rogers miss v Man Utd)?

[pauliewalnuts]

So our form is unsustainable, based on the fact that xG can’t accurately identify what is a good chance (Rogers second goal v West Ham) and a fleeting, difficult one (Rogers miss v Man Utd)?

And also despite the fact that this exact same discourse was going on amongst the beard-stroking stat loving footballistas on youtube last season, too, when we also continued to do very well.

[john e]

You can use XG to see how well you have done in attack

Or alternatively watch the game and see for yourself

[PeterWithesShin]

Our xG last season was 57.50, our xGA 49.83. Our actual goals for and against was 58 and 51.

No one seriously uses it over one game, but over a season it's often pretty accurate. 5 of the top 6 for xG last season are in the CL while the bottom 3 are in the Championship.

Like any stat it's never fully accurate, same as number of shots or possession don't always reflect the final score in a game. Which is why we won 4-1 at Saints while barely touching the ball, and the semi v Albion went to pens despite us having way more shots.
Over a season though the higher your stats like that are then the higher your chances of being at the right end of the table.

Using it to definitively prove something or dismissing it completely are both a bit saft imo.

[Chris Harte]

actual goals scored / xG = efficiency

Villa are by far the efficientist team,
The world has ever seen.

[Ian.]

You can use XG to see how well you have done in attack

Or alternatively watch the game and see for yourself

But be careful as you may watch the MOTD/Sky edited highlights version and depending on who you’ve played, it may be rather one sided.

[Sexual Ealing]

They'll try to say Ollie Watkins doesn't score any goals. Don't listen to them.

[cdbearsfan]

You can use XG to see how well you have done in attack

Or alternatively watch the game and see for yourself

I can't watch every game, John. If we don't have xG stats, I'll never know who had the better chances when Fulham played Bournemouth.

Can you live with that on your conscience?