22/23 season expectations.

[paul_e]

Try not to forget Bailey looked very exciting in his brief appearances under Smith when we actually played with wingers and knew how to use them.

"Try not to forget" - bloody hell. He made three sub appearances of half an hour so before injuring himself in the Everton game, during which time he scored once. He was then mostly terrible against Arsenal, West Ham and Southampton. He was especially bad against Southampton. Whilst not being particularly scientific of course, he got a score of 3.32 in that match, the lowest of any Villa player. Of the 6 games he featured in under Smith, we lost 5 of them, and didn't start with any wingers at all in two of them. But yeah, he was playing when he played with wingers and knew what to do with them.

I thought he looked excellent when he came on. Loved that bit when he chased back in our area, won the ball, then megged their player to bring it out of defence. Given a proper run think he'll be fantastic.

This you? There's about a hundred post on his thread from after that Everton game where we thought he was going to be a star for us but he just couldn't stay fit. By the time he was actually fit enough to play a meaningful part we'd shifted style to the shit that we're seeing now which has killed the form of every single attacking player at the club.

[paul_e]

Coutinho and Traore have done as much as Buendia has for us so there's a massive element of personal bias there.

Disagree

Again personal bias:

Coutinho: 5 goals and 3 assists in 29 games (so roughly 1 goal involvement every 4 games)
Buendia: 5 goals and 7 assists in 47 games (so roughly 1 goal involvement every 4 games)
Traore: 8 goals and 7 assists in 48 games (so roughly 1 goal involvement every 3 games)

What part of what i said was wrong?

[Risso]

Fucking hell Paul, please stop. He played well in the Everton game, when he was on for a whole 20 minutes. The point was we were either playing with one winger, (mainly El Ghazi or cameos from Bailey) or none at all, as in when Smith was experimenting with 5-3-2 and 4-4-2. As pointed, out, we lost all but one of the games so your comment doesn't stand up at all.

Shall I go and dredge up all of your posts praising Gerrard after we won a game, such as the Leeds and Southampton games where we battered two teams using more or less the same system and players we have now, both times when we could have scored 8 or 9?

[paul_e]

Fucking hell Paul, please stop. He played well in the Everton game, when he was on for a whole 20 minutes. The point was we were either playing with one winger, (mainly El Ghazi or cameos from Bailey) or none at all, as in when Smith was experimenting with 5-3-2 and 4-4-2.

Shall I go and dredge up all of your posts praising Gerrard after we won a game, such as the Leeds and Southampton games where we battered two teams using more or less the same system and players we have now, both times when we could have cored 8 or 9?

You can, and I accept they probably exist, I'm not the one rewriting history. We had a manager who played with wingers, Bailey played for an equivalent of 3 games over 6 games (as you say) under him and had a goal and 2 assists. In 21 games since, under a manager who doesn't like wingers, he's managed 2 goals and 1 assist. If you can't see how the change of manager has had an impact then I can't help you.

[Risso]

Fucking hell Paul, please stop. He played well in the Everton game, when he was on for a whole 20 minutes. The point was we were either playing with one winger, (mainly El Ghazi or cameos from Bailey) or none at all, as in when Smith was experimenting with 5-3-2 and 4-4-2.

Shall I go and dredge up all of your posts praising Gerrard after we won a game, such as the Leeds and Southampton games where we battered two teams using more or less the same system and players we have now, both times when we could have cored 8 or 9?

You can, and I accept they probably exist, I'm not the one rewriting history. We had a manager who played with wingers, Bailey played for an equivalent of 3 games over 6 games (as you say) under him and had a goal and 2 assists. In 21 games since, under a manager who doesn't like wingers, he's managed 2 goals and 1 assist. If you can't see how the change of manager has had an impact then I can't help you.

When we had Grealish we played with one other winger, either El Ghazi, Trez or Traore. When Grealish left, Smith only ever played with one winger at most, and sometimes none. Bailey has played most games under Gerrard when he's been fit. If you're trying to extrapolate from 6 games how Bailey would have done under Smith had he stayed , then you don't understand statistics very well, and I can't help you.

[paul_e]

Fucking hell Paul, please stop. He played well in the Everton game, when he was on for a whole 20 minutes. The point was we were either playing with one winger, (mainly El Ghazi or cameos from Bailey) or none at all, as in when Smith was experimenting with 5-3-2 and 4-4-2.

Shall I go and dredge up all of your posts praising Gerrard after we won a game, such as the Leeds and Southampton games where we battered two teams using more or less the same system and players we have now, both times when we could have cored 8 or 9?

You can, and I accept they probably exist, I'm not the one rewriting history. We had a manager who played with wingers, Bailey played for an equivalent of 3 games over 6 games (as you say) under him and had a goal and 2 assists. In 21 games since, under a manager who doesn't like wingers, he's managed 2 goals and 1 assist. If you can't see how the change of manager has had an impact then I can't help you.

When we had Grealish we played with one other winger, either El Ghazi, Trez or Traore. When Grealish left, Smith only ever played with one winger at most, and sometimes none. Bailey has played most games under Gerrard when he's been fit. If you're trying to extrapolate from 6 games how Bailey would have done under Smith had he stayed , then you don't understand statistics very well, and I can't help you.

I think you should learn the difference betwene data and analysis before you start that shit. I gave data, that's immutable and doesn't give a fuck if you like it or not. I never extrapolated anything because on such a small data set the sdiff would be far too high for any analysis to be meaningful (which is why I gave data only). Smith plays with wingers most of the time and clearly appreciates how to use them having got generally decent performances out of a number of wide players whilst managing us.

I couldn't give the slightest shit what our formation was in the games Bailey played under him, his assists and goal came from us making the pitch wide and creating space in those channels for our players. I also don't see the point in you excluding Grealish from being a winger when that was quite clearly the role that he played for us under smith for all but the first 9-10 games in our first season back. Just because a player drifts out of position it doesn't change what they're being played as or how they're being used within the team.

Under Gerrard we slow the ball down in midfield and push it wide when the fullbacks are high up the pitch meaning wingers/wide forwards have a lot less space to work in and the result is that every single attacking player in our squad has been less effective in those channels.

I could prove it with stats but I really can't be arsed because it's fucking obvious to anyone who's watched us play in the last year.

What I will predict is that in a team which gets the ball to wide players in space and/or with 1 defender to beat to get into a dangerous area Bailey, Buendia and Countinho will all look like better players than they do now, I would also predict that, in that team, Watkins and Ings would be much more effective. The vast majority of our attacking problems come from us moving the ball very slowly and doing too much of our work 10yards too deep.

[ChicagoLion]

Your analysis of our attacking problems are spot on, our attacks nearly allways occur having allowed the opposition to become set.
We are too slow, not set up to create overloads or to get players the wrong side of defenders. As well as being ineffective.
It’s also excruciatingly dull.

[paul_e]

Your analysis of our attacking problems are spot on, our attacks nearly allways occur having allowed the opposition to become set.
We are too slow, not set up to create overloads or to get players the wrong side of defenders. As well as being ineffective.
It’s also excruciatingly dull.

I don't think it takes much analysis to see that, we just don't force defenders to commit to anything so there's just no space for us to play in. Gerrard being oblivious to it, and therefore doing fuck all to try to change it, is why I flipped from thinking he deserved at last until the world cup to deciding that we're just wasting fixtures on him at this point.

[ChicagoLion]

Where are we now?
I would take survival and a decent Manager right now, get the appointment wrong and we are in trouble.

[Footy-Vill]

Renewed optimization with Emery in charge.
Theres a chance for a domestic cup win!

[Risso]

There's no reason we can't finish top half. We've got Kamara due back hopefully not too long after the World Cup, and the January window to bring a player or two in. If Emery can get Coutinho firing again, 8th could be a possibility.

[TonyD]

7th and a cup. 
Emery can do it. 

[dave.woodhall]

Top half at the very least then much higher next season. We're done with pissing about hoping to "kick on from eighth-tenth".

[Risso]

Top half at the very least then much higher next season. We're done with pissing about hoping to "kick on from eighth-tenth".

Exactly. The manager's in place, we've the makings of a good squad, just needs a bit more quality. If it doesn't work after all that I give up.

[Beard82]

Top half at the very least then much higher next season. We're done with pissing about hoping to "kick on from eighth-tenth".

Exactly. The manager's in place, we've the makings of a good squad, just needs a bit more quality. If it doesn't work after all that I give up.

Yeah - and if we could win a cup then so much the better