Gerrard In or Out?

[VILLA MOLE]

Deano's games in charge this season were harder than Gerrard's so it's not a fair comparison.

I thought that too, from memory and gut feel, but Dean's 10 games were against the sides now placed:

12th
13th
19th
6th
16th
3rd
7th
4th
8th
5th

That's an average league position of 9.3. Just 0.7 places harder than 'average' over those 10 games.  Yes, the five-game losing run was tough, given it was against five of the top 8, but if we'd done better in the previous five, I suspect he'd still be here.  Also, Gerrard gets to play the runaway top two twice each in his 28 games (and I suspect he'll lose all four btw).

I’ve been thinking about the recently and I have a suspicion that it was always in the owners long term thinking to install a more high profile manager once we had established ourselves. The poor run of results just gave them the opportunity to implement their plan.

I'm convinced they wanted to get rid first opportunity they had.
 

I always thought Purslow came across as underwhelmed at the end of last season

[olaftab]

League table since Gerrard took over. Ninth.
AVFC Statto link on twitter.

This is a totally superfluous  and tiresome stat. There is nothing to suggest Dean Smith would not have achieved similar  results.

League tables are superfluous? Given how shite we've been for 25 years I might get on this train.

Yes selected games League tables are and so is stating that another manager would not have got similar or better results.

[paul_e]

League table since Gerrard took over. Ninth.
AVFC Statto link on twitter.

This is a totally superfluous  and tiresome stat. There is nothing to suggest Dean Smith would not have achieved similar  results.

League tables are superfluous? Given how shite we've been for 25 years I might get on this train.

Yes selected games League tables are and so is stating that another manager would not have got similar or better results.

No one is doing that though really. People are saying that the results that Gerrard actually got are in line with meeting our goals for this season (most people on here were happy with consoilidating midtable once Grealish left) which is clearly good enough for us to back him in the summer and is an improvement on where he found us.

[brian green]

I agree with DW.  Wealthy people rarely, if ever, do anything imaginative.

[LeonW]

Deano's games in charge this season were harder than Gerrard's so it's not a fair comparison.

I thought that too, from memory and gut feel, but Dean's 10 games were against the sides now placed:

12th
13th
19th
6th
16th
3rd
7th
4th
8th
5th

That's an average league position of 9.3. Just 0.7 places harder than 'average' over those 10 games.  Yes, the five-game losing run was tough, given it was against five of the top 8, but if we'd done better in the previous five, I suspect he'd still be here.  Also, Gerrard gets to play the runaway top two twice each in his 28 games (and I suspect he'll lose all four btw).

I’ve been thinking about the recently and I have a suspicion that it was always in the owners long term thinking to install a more high profile manager once we had established ourselves. The poor run of results just gave them the opportunity to implement their plan.

I'm convinced they wanted to get rid first opportunity they had.

He certainly wasn’t their first choice originally. Thank goodness the managerial duo of T.Henry and J.Terry didn’t happen.

[Beard82]

Deano's games in charge this season were harder than Gerrard's so it's not a fair comparison.

I thought that too, from memory and gut feel, but Dean's 10 games were against the sides now placed:

12th
13th
19th
6th
16th
3rd
7th
4th
8th
5th

That's an average league position of 9.3. Just 0.7 places harder than 'average' over those 10 games.  Yes, the five-game losing run was tough, given it was against five of the top 8, but if we'd done better in the previous five, I suspect he'd still be here.  Also, Gerrard gets to play the runaway top two twice each in his 28 games (and I suspect he'll lose all four btw).

I’ve been thinking about the recently and I have a suspicion that it was always in the owners long term thinking to install a more high profile manager once we had established ourselves. The poor run of results just gave them the opportunity to implement their plan.

I'm convinced they wanted to get rid first opportunity they had.

He certainly wasn’t their first choice originally. Thank goodness the managerial duo of T.Henry and J.Terry didn’t happen.

I think they had already made up there mind he wasnt going to be the long term manager, and I think the SG has been on their minds for a while.  And I think the wolves game, when Eden was there, probably spead the process up. 

I think a strong case could be made from him to go or stay - hence why we are still having the conversation 6 months later, but I agree that they dont think he fitted in with their long term plans

It will be interesting to see this summer how the business is conducted - we seem to have a habit of making ridiclous low / offensive offers for some of our targets, I wasnt sure if some of that was keeping their powder dry cos they werent convinced in Smith

[Beard82]

We were an average PL team last season. We are an average PL team this season. Comparing minutiae of decimal points per game are fairly meaningless given the number of variables in play.

Gerrard will be judged on how his team perform from August onwards. He’ll have his own players in and the opportunity to get his ideas across during pre-season. On evidence to date I couldn’t guess one way or the other how that will pan out.

I think this is a good summary.  In the last three games for SG have been big - as I think it could have been a bad look to get drawn into the relegation battle. 

And as you say - I have no idea how this will pan out

[eamonn]

They could have sacked Smith during Lockdown too though - that defeat at Leicester must surely have tested their patience given we looked like we were in serious trouble.

[Beard82]

They could have sacked Smith during Lockdown too though - that defeat at Leicester must surely have tested their patience given we looked like we were in serious trouble.

I think if it hadnt been for lockdown he would have gone - I think they decided it was better to let him work (remotely) with the players, than try and get a new manager doing it (who I believe would have been Dyche)

[rougegorge]

They could have sacked Smith during Lockdown too though - that defeat at Leicester must surely have tested their patience given we looked like we were in serious trouble.

Yes in some respects, lockdown rescued him.

We'll never know if Smith would've done better than, as well as, or worse than Gerrard, but I think it was probably the right time to change rather than wait and see for a bit longer or after January if the owners were necessarily set on a change this season. Given the parameters, I don't think that Gerrard was a particularly unimaginative choice though.

I know Norwich were always going to struggle, but some fans I know are not impressed with Smith, and in general there is not much support for him even if it can't be all his fault.

It will be interesting to see if he can get the upswing on the yo-yo next season.

[mike]

As has been said before, I don't think it was the five losses on the bounce that got him sacked, but the average over the last 40 or so games. I thought he was a lovely man and gets many loyalty points for being a Villa man, but in the end, if he had confidence in his own ability he would have turned Norwich down and held out for something better. I think in his heart of hearts he knows he's a manager for a good Championship/bottom third PL team.

[olaftab]

No one is doing that though really. People are saying that the results that Gerrard actually got are in line with meeting our goals for this season (most people on here were happy with consoilidating midtable once Grealish left) which is clearly good enough for us to back him in the summer and is an improvement on where he found us.

Consolidating mid-table with Grealish gone and summer additions was a reasonable aim however we added to the squad in January with major signings and not seen the expected improvement.

[Holy Trinity]

No one is doing that though really. People are saying that the results that Gerrard actually got are in line with meeting our goals for this season (most people on here were happy with consoilidating midtable once Grealish left) which is clearly good enough for us to back him in the summer and is an improvement on where he found us.

Consolidating mid-table with Grealish gone and summer additions was a reasonable aim however we added to the squad in January with major signings and not seen the expected improvement.

I'm sorry but what expected improvement were you expecting? A 29 year old who hadn't played much football in 2 years on loan. All be it a very talented player.
A free transfer in chamber
Digne to compete with Targett who asked to leave apparently so that squad depth plan didn't exactly pan out.
Back up keeper in olsen.

I didnt really expect these to all of a sudden catapult us up the table. We are probably 4 points off where I thought we would be at this point in the season with the squad we have now.
I expected us to be battling for 8th before the start of the season and before jack left. After Jack left I was hoping for 12th and not to get sucked into a relegation battle.

After signing Coutinho I again expected to battle for 8th so back to my original point. If we had 4 points extra and were sat in 9th with a game In hand on wolves that to me would have been the good season. So 1 win and 1 draw away from where I would be happy.

Is it entirely unreasonable to assume Gerrad would have gotten an extra 4 points from Dean's first 11 games? Cant we just get through this season and fully get behind the team next season.

Also in before we get slaughtered at Villa Park tomorrow and everyone starts accusing him of playing to lose.

For what it's worth I also think we will beat city on the final day and hand Liverpool the title just for the sheer hilarity of it.

Have a pleasant evening all

[RamboandBruno]

As has been said before, I don't think it was the five losses on the bounce that got him sacked, but the average over the last 40 or so games. I thought he was a lovely man and gets many loyalty points for being a Villa man, but in the end, if he had confidence in his own ability he would have turned Norwich down and held out for something better. I think in his heart of hearts he knows he's a manager for a good Championship/bottom third PL team.

Without going over old ground too much again, this is unfair to Smith. He could of gone before lockdown, but also got us to a cup final that season. He then led us to 11th, playing some of the best football in a generation. This for me is no mean feat in our second year back up, you only have to look at Leeds to see what a top job Deano did.
Saying all of that his record from January to November 2021 was very average at best and towards the end, whether it was just perception rather than reality, everything seemed a bit chaotic, team selection, singling out Mings by dropping him, notes passed round the pitch. I was glad he went before the holte end turned as he didn’t deserve that.
I think there is probably some truth in the owners wanting a high profile manager from the start and the fact Deano lasted 3 years is a testament to how well he did.
Those days are gone now and for my mind Gerrards playing career means nowt to me. He’s our manager and deserves the same leeway as Smith. Gerrards in his 7th month, which relatively is no time, its been really up and down, when good very good (Southampton, Leeds), when bad pretty awful (Watford and Arsenal at home), but then Smiths time was littered with inconsistencies like this.
I would like to see Gerrards team with a couple of his signings, a new CDM, keep Coutinhio, maybe another CB, and a full pre season and then judge him on next year.  Patience needed.
My guess is though that we lose badly tomorrow and the anti Gerrard stuff will be out in force again.

[chrisw1]

It's a bit odd having two Gerrard threads now - this one is clearly pretty defunct until at least October I'd guess.  Is it worth merging or locking one?