The next step - which players would you keep?

[Scovilla]

Will all depend on who we bring in.. i wouldn't mind Luiz to go if we bring midfielders. Would love to keep Moutinho.

[Drummond]

Couldn't' work out where to put this, but given it's about money spent etc, I reckon here!

It's from 4-4-2.

Did Aston Villa squander the Jack Grealish money on Ings, Bailey and Buendia?
By Richard Jolly

Aston Villa spent big last summer but their three most expensive signings are arguably no longer starters under new boss Steven Gerrard

Together, they are the Grealish three even if they are never actually together. Most of the proceeds of a record sale were spent on Leon Bailey, Emi Buendia and Danny Ings. The £100 million man was followed by the £90 million trio, even if none was a direct replacement for the departed Jack Grealish.

But, three-quarters of a way into a season, they have outdone him: statistically, anyway, and not only the Manchester City Grealish. As Aston Villa captain, he got six goals and 10 assists in the Premier League last season.

The trio of newcomers have eight goals and 11 assists. There are fundamental differences, of course, including the reality that Ings is a striker and that Grealish only occupied one spot in the side: others, like Anwar El Ghazi (10 goals) and Bertrand Traore (seven goals and six assists) could join him on the pitch then.

In comparison, the Grealish three can be seen as degrees of disappointments. Ings has perhaps been the best, scoring a spectacular overhead kick on his debut at Watford and contributing either a goal or an assist every 152 minutes, but having a stop-start season with injuries, struggling to form a partnership with Ollie Watkins and not replicating his Southampton form. Buendia flattered to deceive initially and at least delivered a winner away at Everton, but the outstanding creator in last season’s Championship has not proved anything like as inventive at a higher level. Bailey had his remarkable cameo at home to Everton, contriving to score and make a goal and get injured in an eventful 21 minutes. Otherwise, he has often been injured or a substitute. His campaign is shaping up as a wasted year. 

Summer signings can be bracketed with one another; each was part of succession planning, a very different recruit with pedigree and statistics to suggest they could contribute to life after Jack. Yet Villa’s plans have not been realised. Ings and Bailey have never started together. Bailey and Buendia have only begun three games alongside one another. Ings and Buendia have been in the same on 11 occasions. Villa lost seven of them.

Two managers have wrestled with the question of if there is a shape to suit all, plus the remaining attacking talent. Both have failed to find a way to get the best out of two, let along all three: Dean Smith switched to 3-5-2 to pair Ings and Watkins, but Buendia was unconvincing as a No. 10 and it left no room for a winger, in Bailey. The presence of two box-to-box midfielders, in John McGinn and the fast-emerging Jacob Ramsey, has left 4-3-3 as the logical shape.

And if four into three won’t go, five definitely won’t. Steven Gerrard’s flagship signing is Philippe Coutinho. He is a sign Villa’s ambitions accelerated in the few months between buying Buendia from Norwich and borrowing the Brazilian from Barcelona. Coutinho’s future is uncertain, but Gerrard’s desire to keep him is evident.

And Coutinho means two of the Grealish three tend to be spectators at any given point. Watkins has established himself as the first-choice striker. The manager’s Rangers formation, a narrow 4-3-3 with two No. 10s, lent itself to Buendia, who could operate as an inside-right. A more recent switch to a midfield diamond, with Coutinho at the tip, put Ings alongside Watkins for wins over Brighton, Southampton and Leeds.

But it meant that Ings came in for Buendia against Brighton. In a less successful switch, the Argentinian returned in place of the Englishman against Arsenal on Saturday. As a natural wide player, Bailey seems to suit neither the system nor the manager. Gerrard has only given him one start so far; it is hard to escape the sense he does not particularly rate one of the Bundesliga’s most productive attacking midfielders.

Yet each, in his own way, has suffered from a situation where Villa had a new manager who identified a huge upgrade that was immediately available; they are good players competing for one position now Gerrard has his Galactico.

If it can suggest a failure of strategy by Villa last summer, it is worth remembering the theory that windfalls for sales of special players are often squandered. The names of Luis Suarez and Gareth Bale tend to be cited. The reality can be more complex: Christian Eriksen joined Tottenham as Bale left and proved an inspired addition while Liverpool spent some of the Suarez millions on Divock Origi, Dejan Lovren, Emre Can and Adam Lallana, who all contributed to Jurgen Klopp’s exploits later down the line. 

It is nevertheless undeniable that certain signings failed; Smith, like Andre Villas-Boas and Brendan Rodgers, ultimately lost his job amid a difficulty to readjust to the loss of a talisman. Plans were rapidly redrawn and some big-money buys became fringe figures. Villa’s 2021 recruits may know how that feels. If the idea was to replace a Jack with three aces, only one has the chance to be a trump card in Gerrard’s first XI.

[eamonn]

Ings' spectacular overhead kick was his home debut against Newcastle, Mr Jolly!

[Hookeysmith]

I accept McGinn isn't always firing on all cylinders but he can be outstanding and a match winner.

When did this ever happen?

Last 3 managers have all called him the "personality" in the dressing room - He has the odd game where is is a stand out player (and they are becoming fewer and fewer) sorry but that is not enough

[Clark W Griswold]

An ideal midfield though for me, based on how we play is a holding player that tackles well and breaks up the opposition, protecting the back 4, a box to box player that gets around, tackles, gives it simple and generally makes themselves a pain in the arse to the opposition and an attacking player that either creates for the front 3, breaks forward into the box or preferably both. Nakamba is the first one although I think we all agree we need a better player with Nakamba as back up and then McGinn is the second one with Sanson as back up/competition and Ramsey is the third one. We could do with a player to compete with Ramsey in addition to the defensive mid.
I think McGinn would improve as the box to box player if he had someone better in the defensive role. I think you’d see the player we saw in the championship but doing it at premier league level.

[boozey182]

I don't think it's a coincidence that all of our midfielders looked a lot better under Gerrard when Nakamba was fit. That injury, and the failure to replace him in January, really stopped that initial progress in its tracks. Doug was playing further forward (I seem to remember that he had a great game at home to Man City), and McGinn did put in a genuinely match-winning performance against Palace.

Personally, most of my hope for next season, and Gerrard's tenure in general, rests on the fact that we are a DM away from looking a much better team.

Without a recognised DM there, the management clearly feel that they can't give the rest of the midfield a proper license to get forward, which is inhibiting their individual performances as well as the team's. Hopefully when Marv gets fit again, we will see a bit more from them all, and a bit more positivity from the management.

[algy]

I think the "out" list for the summer writes itself:

- Guilbert
- Trez
- AEG
- Targett
- Wesley
- Davis
- Young

There's other players who I'd let go for the right offer.  Think it's a real sign of how far we're progressing that the of players who are now not-good-enough, you'd expect a few to end up at Premier League clubs.

I think a few of our players end up being scapegoated, Dougie and SJM in particular.  Luiz is 23 & a Brazilian international.  He's been asked to cover in a critical position that we're chronically short of senior players for (literally just Marv, who's injured).

I'd also say that SJM looks pretty handy for Scotland, and moves have been mooted to teams higher up the league than us (Manc Reds and Liverpool?).  Maybe he's only a squad player when you get up to top 4 standard - maybe we're just not seeing the best of him because he's being asked to play in a more defensive role than he's suited to - but I'd have him over not.

--

Don't think the gulf between ourselves and the upper echelons is that big.  West Ham weren't much better than us in the promotion season, and you'd not say that their recruitment has been massively better than ours.  The squad will need a bit of reshaping to fit in to Gerrard's way of playing - don't think it's massive, just cutting down the number of wide attacking players, and replacing them with a couple of more combative central midfielders. 

[Mister E]

Based on no particular information, I think Watkins will force a move this summer. I hope not, but I think it will happen.
This, along with a proper CMF, will become the key focus of our recruitment.
Whether we can keep Luiz contented at the club, given that he may become interchangeable with McGinn, is a question, too.

[Clark W Griswold]

He has looked quite cheesed off for large parts of the season, and hasn't been as good as last. I think he'd be wise to stick around for at least another year, he'll need to find the form he showed last season to interest teams in europe. I hope he does as i rate him personally.

[N'ZMAV]

As long as Martinez stays then I’m a bit meh about most of the rest.

[N'ZMAV]

Based on no particular information, I think Watkins will force a move this summer. I hope not, but I think it will happen.
This, along with a proper CMF, will become the key focus of our recruitment.
Whether we can keep Luiz contented at the club, given that he may become interchangeable with McGinn, is a question, too.

Watkins isn’t good enough for a better and bigger club than Villa. If he wants to move then more fool him.

[ldavfc4eva]

Agree with Algys list, although I think Young will stay for another year as backup to Digne.

It does feel we are that elusive quality defensive midfielder away from pushing for top 7 though, when we had Nakamba in there it allowed Doug and SJM the freedom to push on.

If we signed Phillips (and I doubt we will) and got Coutinho then the first 11 looks pretty strong, I still think Ings is the better finisher out of him and Watkins, but Olly offers more legs and chasing down in the final third.

Emi

Digne
Mings
Konsa
Cash

Phillips
SJM
Ramsey

Coutinho
Buendia

Watkins

If a left footed upgrade to Tyrone comes up then I wouldn’t say no, otherwise I think Chambers esq upgrades to other areas would be welcome.

Under Gerrard the day of the out and out winger is gone, so can see Bailey going too

[Nelly]

If we're going to persist with punting it long to Watkins, we may as well let him go. The only players who I know fit whichever system we play are Cash and Martinez. The midfield doesn't really work anymore and we sometimes seem to have no attacking threat or intent so I guess the rest are expendable, if we are truly re-building into what Gerrard wants.

[LeonW]

If we were looking at a new striker I think Patrick Schick would be quite useful both in a 2 up top or on his own (have moved this to the summer 2022 transfer thread).

[ChicagoLion]

So after what is looking like a second successive season of a mid-table finish, which players would you keep, and who do you think needs replacing? I'm really talking about the senior players but include the kids if you like.


For me in the "keep" column:


Martinez
Cash
Digne
Mings
Konsa
Chambers
Ramsey
Coutinho
Buendia
Nakamba
Ings


Let go/replace:


Young- probably has one more move down the leagues
McGinn- I think we will keep unless a silly offer comes in but should be a squad player not regular starter
Luiz- contract situation means he should be sold
Bailey- we really lack pace and if we get him fit and focused he could be useful,
Sanson- pretty obvious Gerrard does not want him, if he can’t get a game in this midfield he never will
Traore - not a Gerrard type player but might be difficult to shift
Watkins- I think he will stay as I don’t see decent money for him based on this seasons form.

I agree with most of this but do not think the pruning will be this severe, it would not surprise me to see Ings go.