Summer 2022 Transfer Thread

[john e]

I don't think Ings or Watkins will go.

I do

I think one of them will go defo
Depends on who we get any offers for I suppose
I wouldn’t be that surprised if we started next season without both though unlikely

[OCD]

After what Gerrard said about Watkins recently I would be really surprised if we sold him.

He's talked about not needing lots of players in and just adding quality to the spine of the team.

I think he'll want 3 proven strikers because there are some games where playing 2 up front is a good option. That would mean keeping Ings and he would look pretty stupid if he let Ings go and started banging in goals for someone else. I think he'll wait until he thinks Archer is ready before moving Ings on.

[algy]

After what Gerrard said about Watkins recently I would be really surprised if we sold him.

He's talked about not needing lots of players in and just adding quality to the spine of the team.

I think he'll want 3 proven strikers because there are some games where playing 2 up front is a good option. That would mean keeping Ings and he would look pretty stupid if he let Ings go and started banging in goals for someone else. I think he'll wait until he thinks Archer is ready before moving Ings on.

I agree. If we're likely to be playing 2 up front as often as not, the squad can easily support 3 strikers plus a 4th choice player from the u23s. Don't think Ollie is likely to go, and selling Ings so soon after buying him would seem very odd, especially if he starts banging them in elsewhere.

[ChicagoLion]

This season has proved that Ings and Watkins as our 2 main strikers are not up to it.
If we are serious about challenging for Europe then something has got to change.

[N'ZMAV]

This season has proved that Ings and Watkins as our 2 main strikers are not up to it.
If we are serious about challenging for Europe then something has got to change.

I agree - but we do need to create more chances - some games they're feeding off scraps.

[Holy Trinity]

This season has proved that Ings and Watkins as our 2 main strikers are not up to it.
If we are serious about challenging for Europe then something has got to change.

I agree - but we do need to create more chances - some games they're feeding off scraps.

Agreed with a massive BUT!!!

The best strikers in the world make their own chances and even when feeding off scraps score goals. I saw a stat a while back on xg vs goals scored and walking and ings scored highly and were shown to not be missing sitters. The problem with xg is its massively flawed as its raw data is taken from incudes absolute shitters like Ashley Barnes and talented but goal shy timo werner. Which skews the results.

Whilst Lukaku, Sara, Kane, Son, Mane, Jota, KDB & Ronaldo Bury half and even quarter chances that would show as a meer 0.2 or 0.1 on the XG scale players like Watlins (who I'm very fond of and in no way want to hound out the club) miss 1 on 1s with shocking regularity.
When was the last time you saw a villa player 1 on 1 and thought this is in and it actually went it?

We need that striker who scores half and quarter chances or can make there own. I really would love us to go for David this summer because he's quick! He will scare the living daylights out of defenders like Gabby used to and that pace will create chances either for himself or lay offs to the other strikers to score but David himself is wasteful but young enough to possibly coach the killer instinct into where as I fear Watkin is to old for that now.

As mentioned above Watkins stock is fairly high and we would get good money for him. Ings has virtually no resale value and will be happy to be a squad player its a coin flip for me but I would lean towards keeping Ollie and selling ings with a more clinical player or a young raw talent coming in to be moulded into the striker we have needed since Dwight f'd off to united.
Don't write off Bailey either he is a fantastic player and was rushed back for an injury early in the season which has lead to him suffering all season as a result. A solid pre season and he will be like the fabled new player.

My short list for striker supreme would be

David as a project
Ben Yedder as a stop gap for a few seasons
Lewandowski (dreaming)
Nkunku plays a little deeper as more of a 10 but has everything in his game to play virtually anywhere.
Tammy but he would cost to much
Finally angel correa from athletico.

[N'ZMAV]

spot on, but do you have any realistic signings?

[ChicagoLion]

Agree HT, we bought Ings to score the chances that he has regularly been spurning.
Watkins is not a natural finisher and his first touch, vision and passing is severely lacking.

[Holy Trinity]

spot on, but do you have any realistic signings?

Some are very hopeful but David, correct and yedder would all come if the money was right I'm sure. What I dont want to see is 45 million on Calverton lewen or a player of that ilk

[pauliewalnuts]

If we signed Calvert-Lewin, I think I would vomit up most of my digestive system.

[ChicagoLion]

If we signed Calvert-Lewin, I think I would vomit up most of my digestive system.

Rudy Gestede with a bad taste in clothes.

[AV82EC]

If we signed Calvert-Lewin, I think I would vomit up most of my digestive system.

Rudy Gestede with a bad taste in clothes.

I snorted and now have a nice Rose over my T shirt. Thanks…

[Big Ming]

Chamber's has looked better and more reliable than Konsa on recent form.
May save us a shed load of money to spend on reinforcements elsewhere.

[algy]

This season has proved that Ings and Watkins as our 2 main strikers are not up to it.
If we are serious about challenging for Europe then something has got to change.

I agree - but we do need to create more chances - some games they're feeding off scraps.

Agreed with a massive BUT!!!

The best strikers in the world make their own chances and even when feeding off scraps score goals. I saw a stat a while back on xg vs goals scored and walking and ings scored highly and were shown to not be missing sitters. The problem with xg is its massively flawed as its raw data is taken from incudes absolute shitters like Ashley Barnes and talented but goal shy timo werner. Which skews the results.

Whilst Lukaku, Sara, Kane, Son, Mane, Jota, KDB & Ronaldo Bury half and even quarter chances that would show as a meer 0.2 or 0.1 on the XG scale players like Watlins (who I'm very fond of and in no way want to hound out the club) miss 1 on 1s with shocking regularity.
When was the last time you saw a villa player 1 on 1 and thought this is in and it actually went it?

We need that striker who scores half and quarter chances or can make there own. I really would love us to go for David this summer because he's quick! He will scare the living daylights out of defenders like Gabby used to and that pace will create chances either for himself or lay offs to the other strikers to score but David himself is wasteful but young enough to possibly coach the killer instinct into where as I fear Watkin is to old for that now.

As mentioned above Watkins stock is fairly high and we would get good money for him. Ings has virtually no resale value and will be happy to be a squad player its a coin flip for me but I would lean towards keeping Ollie and selling ings with a more clinical player or a young raw talent coming in to be moulded into the striker we have needed since Dwight f'd off to united.
Don't write off Bailey either he is a fantastic player and was rushed back for an injury early in the season which has lead to him suffering all season as a result. A solid pre season and he will be like the fabled new player.

My short list for striker supreme would be

David as a project
Ben Yedder as a stop gap for a few seasons
Lewandowski (dreaming)
Nkunku plays a little deeper as more of a 10 but has everything in his game to play virtually anywhere.
Tammy but he would cost to much
Finally angel correa from athletico.

I'm certainly no expert on xG, and don't really have skin in the game as it were, but I'd understood it as being a measure of the quality of chances created. So it's more a measure of how effective a team is as a creative (xG for) and defensive (xG against) force - so in the case you mentioned having a high xG for but not putting chances away suggests exactly what you've described, wasteful strikers. Having a low xG against, conversely, probably means your defensive midfielder & defenders are effective at limiting the chances the opposition create.

It just feels to me like it actually supports what your saying pretty well. Though it might be that I've not understood it properly too 😜

[Drummond]

Watkins and Ings have had an off season, yet Watkins still has double figures and Ings is doing well in the assists column. They will both do better next season.