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Author Topic: Expected goals  (Read 4192 times)

Offline alanclare

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Expected goals
« on: December 02, 2020, 08:02:23 AM »
Has the performance metric “performance goals” been discussed in the forum? If so, within what thread, please?

Offline paul_e

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #1 on: December 02, 2020, 10:04:30 AM »
It's been mentioned a few times on various threads.

Offline Footy-Vill

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #2 on: December 06, 2020, 12:45:51 PM »
Has the performance metric “performance goals” been discussed in the forum? If so, within what thread, please?

If this is to be the XG and stats thread then would add this 

https://understat.com/team/Aston_Villa/2020

Has plenty on players and great to study if , like me, you're into such data.

Up the Villa

Offline alanclare

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #3 on: December 07, 2020, 07:41:55 AM »
Has the performance metric “performance goals” been discussed in the forum? If so, within what thread, please?

If this is to be the XG and stats thread then would add this 

https://understat.com/team/Aston_Villa/2020

Has plenty on players and great to study if , like me, you're into such data.

Up the Villa

Thanks. That’s a big help.

Notice how there have only been two games this season where we've been beaten in terms of xG: Sheffield United (because they had a penalty) and Leeds (where the xG difference was nowhere near the final 3-0 scoreline). This shows that we've been unlucky in our last couple of games, as we should have scored more. That being said, you could also describe this lack of luck as a lack of being clinical in front of goal.
« Last Edit: December 07, 2020, 09:48:25 AM by alanclare »

Offline itbrvilla

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #4 on: December 08, 2020, 01:46:43 PM »
Not sure where else to post this but it is quite interesting.



More info here:

https://twitter.com/utdarena/status/1336063821153259525?s=19

Offline Footy-Vill

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #5 on: December 17, 2020, 10:09:56 AM »
Expected goals in some way... I'll leave this here

Since the start of last season with Villa back in the prem . We have scored more winning goals in the 90th minute or later than any other Premier League side.
AEG goal against Wolverhampton Wanderers was the 4th time won a game 90 plus minute.

Think shows Dean Smith aptitude to keep the team going better than any other manager or team since we ve been back where we belong

Up the Villa !

Offline exigo

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #6 on: December 17, 2020, 10:54:40 AM »
We've gone up up from 2 to 3 out of 5 for difficulty to play against in Fantasy Premier League. The stats are rising.

Offline Footy-Vill

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #7 on: December 22, 2020, 10:16:25 AM »
4th for XG behind only Liverpool , Man City and Chelsea
3rd for XG conceded behind only Chelsea and Man City

Circumstances of course had kinder fixtures for most of season and played less matches than every other team but clearly Villa are a top performing team

It's great reading


Offline Jockey Randall

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #8 on: December 27, 2020, 08:28:48 AM »
On all the models I can find we racked up nearly 5 expected goals yesterday which is the most by any side this season in a single game. Unbelievable considering we played for over 45 minutes with 10 men. This team is playing some outstanding football at the moment.

Offline Footy-Vill

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #9 on: December 27, 2020, 08:33:43 AM »
Every time Villa have scored first this season we have gone on to win the match.
And everytime we've conceded first we've lost the match

Offline Lastfootstamper

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #10 on: December 27, 2020, 10:27:24 PM »
On all the models I can find we racked up nearly 5 expected goals yesterday which is the most by any side this season in a single game. Unbelievable considering we played for over 45 minutes with 10 men. This team is playing some outstanding football at the moment.

These folks https://twitter.com/xGPhilosophy?s=09
had us >5 for yesterday. They've been doing these stats since 2014, and we became the first team other than citeh to ever register a score that high. 
And just for balance, they also have this meme
https://twitter.com/Mufcarch1/status/1343226879944306690?s=09

Offline eamonn

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #11 on: December 28, 2020, 12:05:08 AM »
Anyone know what our expected goals was first half v second half?

Also, given the amount of tight VAR offsides generally, ExGs seems a little inaccurate/incomplete if they're not captured somehow.

Offline Brazilian Villain

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #12 on: December 28, 2020, 12:21:46 AM »
This is the metric I rely on. https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/tables

Online olaftab

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #13 on: December 28, 2020, 12:29:08 AM »
I tend to trust Villa 3 opposition 0 as the best indicator of how well we are doing.

Offline Jockey Randall

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Re: Expected goals
« Reply #14 on: December 28, 2020, 09:43:57 PM »
Anyone know what our expected goals was first half v second half?

Also, given the amount of tight VAR offsides generally, ExGs seems a little inaccurate/incomplete if they're not captured somehow.

For the Palace game Understat had first half: Villa 2.28 Palace 0.41. The overall totals were: Villa 4.58 Palace 0.85.

 


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