Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine

Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: alanclare on December 02, 2020, 08:02:23 AM

Title: Expected goals
Post by: alanclare on December 02, 2020, 08:02:23 AM
Has the performance metric “performance goals” been discussed in the forum? If so, within what thread, please?
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: paul_e on December 02, 2020, 10:04:30 AM
It's been mentioned a few times on various threads.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Footy-Vill on December 06, 2020, 12:45:51 PM
Has the performance metric “performance goals” been discussed in the forum? If so, within what thread, please?

If this is to be the XG and stats thread then would add this 

https://understat.com/team/Aston_Villa/2020

Has plenty on players and great to study if , like me, you're into such data.

Up the Villa
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: alanclare on December 07, 2020, 07:41:55 AM
Has the performance metric “performance goals” been discussed in the forum? If so, within what thread, please?

If this is to be the XG and stats thread then would add this 

https://understat.com/team/Aston_Villa/2020

Has plenty on players and great to study if , like me, you're into such data.

Up the Villa

Thanks. That’s a big help.

Notice how there have only been two games this season where we've been beaten in terms of xG: Sheffield United (because they had a penalty) and Leeds (where the xG difference was nowhere near the final 3-0 scoreline). This shows that we've been unlucky in our last couple of games, as we should have scored more. That being said, you could also describe this lack of luck as a lack of being clinical in front of goal.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: itbrvilla on December 08, 2020, 01:46:43 PM
Not sure where else to post this but it is quite interesting.

(https://external-preview.redd.it/ZMXOpqC2jqCVXrQoqA5IPv-Lb-xvi-hN3l2t6JIDsX8.jpg?width=640&crop=smart&auto=webp&s=ee8cf6fe94e081ade265dd5e8bffe8b5ee697aad)

More info here:

https://twitter.com/utdarena/status/1336063821153259525?s=19
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Footy-Vill on December 17, 2020, 10:09:56 AM
Expected goals in some way... I'll leave this here

Since the start of last season with Villa back in the prem . We have scored more winning goals in the 90th minute or later than any other Premier League side.
AEG goal against Wolverhampton Wanderers was the 4th time won a game 90 plus minute.

Think shows Dean Smith aptitude to keep the team going better than any other manager or team since we ve been back where we belong

Up the Villa !
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: exigo on December 17, 2020, 10:54:40 AM
We've gone up up from 2 to 3 out of 5 for difficulty to play against in Fantasy Premier League. The stats are rising.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Footy-Vill on December 22, 2020, 10:16:25 AM
4th for XG behind only Liverpool , Man City and Chelsea
3rd for XG conceded behind only Chelsea and Man City

Circumstances of course had kinder fixtures for most of season and played less matches than every other team but clearly Villa are a top performing team

It's great reading

Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Jockey Randall on December 27, 2020, 08:28:48 AM
On all the models I can find we racked up nearly 5 expected goals yesterday which is the most by any side this season in a single game. Unbelievable considering we played for over 45 minutes with 10 men. This team is playing some outstanding football at the moment.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Footy-Vill on December 27, 2020, 08:33:43 AM
Every time Villa have scored first this season we have gone on to win the match.
And everytime we've conceded first we've lost the match
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Lastfootstamper on December 27, 2020, 10:27:24 PM
On all the models I can find we racked up nearly 5 expected goals yesterday which is the most by any side this season in a single game. Unbelievable considering we played for over 45 minutes with 10 men. This team is playing some outstanding football at the moment.

These folks https://twitter.com/xGPhilosophy?s=09
had us >5 for yesterday. They've been doing these stats since 2014, and we became the first team other than citeh to ever register a score that high. 
And just for balance, they also have this meme
https://twitter.com/Mufcarch1/status/1343226879944306690?s=09
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: eamonn on December 28, 2020, 12:05:08 AM
Anyone know what our expected goals was first half v second half?

Also, given the amount of tight VAR offsides generally, ExGs seems a little inaccurate/incomplete if they're not captured somehow.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Brazilian Villain on December 28, 2020, 12:21:46 AM
This is the metric I rely on. https://www.bbc.com/sport/football/tables
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: olaftab on December 28, 2020, 12:29:08 AM
I tend to trust Villa 3 opposition 0 as the best indicator of how well we are doing.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Jockey Randall on December 28, 2020, 09:43:57 PM
Anyone know what our expected goals was first half v second half?

Also, given the amount of tight VAR offsides generally, ExGs seems a little inaccurate/incomplete if they're not captured somehow.

For the Palace game Understat had first half: Villa 2.28 Palace 0.41. The overall totals were: Villa 4.58 Palace 0.85.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: paul_e on December 31, 2020, 01:03:02 PM
This isn't quite expected goals but this feels like a good thread for it...

A big change i've noticed this season is where we're playing. On whoscored that have an 'action zones' which splits the pitch into 3rds and then breaks down the teams possession in each zone. This season we're level at the top with Liverpool and Man City as spend 1/3rd of our possession in the opposition third. I suspect that and the fact that we have more shots at goal than any other team in the league are the key stats to why we're doing so well, we're playing in the right areas and forcing the opposition to work hard in defence.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Hookeysmith on December 31, 2020, 03:04:59 PM
Can someone please explain wtf is expected goals

For someone who has played and watched football for over 50 years who does not have any idea why we need so many statistics or analysis of the game
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Lastfootstamper on December 31, 2020, 03:16:50 PM
Can someone please explain wtf is expected goals

For someone who has played and watched football for over 50 years who does not have any idea why we need so many statistics or analysis of the game

Other than aG (actual Goals, just made that up), it's the only one that matters. Everything else is bollocks. It crunches years upon years of every aspect of goalscoring data to prove that we're battering the shit out of everyone that dares to step onto the same pitch as us.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Lastfootstamper on December 31, 2020, 03:39:00 PM
Seriously though, it uses the aforementioned years of data that account for multiple factors such as which foot, head, angle, distance, who's shot, quality of opponent, even importance of game, to calculate the historical likelihood of an effort on goal actually hitting the back of the net.

The most glaring demonstration of how it can highlight a freak result compared to actual performance is our loss to Southampton. All things considered, were it an average game played in years past by similar teams, less than one of their four goalscoring efforts would have gone in. We scored our 'expected' three.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Hookeysmith on December 31, 2020, 03:43:20 PM
Err thanks - i think

Can now someone explain what he just said as well ::)
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: LeeB on December 31, 2020, 03:47:39 PM
Err thanks - i think

Can now someone explain what he just said as well ::)

It rates your chances. You can say "We had 20 shots" but if they're all by Ashley Westwood from 25 yards it counts for shit, whereas if you'd Ronnie Rosentahl-ed 20, you've had the better of the game but just shit the bed in front of goal.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: paul_e on December 31, 2020, 05:11:02 PM
yep, xG is a measure of the quality of chances you've had rather than just a count of them. The judgement of the quality is based on analysis of a LOT of data from all over the world. It takes loads of things in to account so, for example, Traore unmarked 15 yards out with the keeper on his line would get a high score on his left foot but a low score on his right (all scores are between 0 and 1). The overall xG for a team is all of those individual scores added together.

If you don't care about stats it will mean nothing to you but for people who like them it's a very good way to measure performance and can be used to highlight training needs, etc.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: JD on December 31, 2020, 08:13:10 PM
Expected goals is what I expect Villa to score every game, that number being 7.

Apart from that it doesn't mean anything to me.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: algy on January 01, 2021, 12:32:09 AM
Err thanks - i think

Can now someone explain what he just said as well ::)

It rates your chances. You can say "We had 20 shots" but if they're all by Ashley Westwood from 25 yards it counts for shit, whereas if you'd Ronnie Rosentahl-ed 20, you've had the better of the game but just shit the bed in front of goal.
This is the best description.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: villabear on January 01, 2021, 02:06:18 AM
I’ve heard expected goals or even worse ‘XG’ tried to be explained before. It’s laughable. Another ‘new football’ term. Surely there’s goals or no goals. There I’ve sorted it.

We’re fifth in the league on the 1st January 2021. Surely that’s worth more time talking about than this bunk?
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Jockey Randall on January 01, 2021, 02:30:19 PM
It's certainly not an exact science as some of the percentages given to certain chances on some models is way off imo. I do however think it can be a good indicator for possible future performance and highlight teams that are maybe stronger/weaker than a lot of people think.

For anyone that doesn't know much about it I think the article below regarding Reading a few seasons back is a good one, it highlights how their fall from 3rd in 16/17 to 20th the following season wasn't that much of a surprise when you looked at the underlying numbers.

https://www.infogol.net/en/blog/analysis/ups-and-downs-of-reading-fc

Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: algy on January 01, 2021, 02:52:47 PM
It's certainly not an exact science as some of the percentages given to certain chances on some models is way off imo. I do however think it can be a good indicator for possible future performance and highlight teams that are maybe stronger/weaker than a lot of people think.

For anyone that doesn't know much about it I think the article below regarding Reading a few seasons back is a good one, it highlights how their fall from 3rd in 16/17 to 20th the following season wasn't that much of a surprise when you looked at the underlying numbers.

https://www.infogol.net/en/blog/analysis/ups-and-downs-of-reading-fc
Yeah, I think it's probably a useful measure of how effective training/coaching is, and where to focus efforts. Is a lack of goals down to the midfield not creating enough (good) chances, or the strikers not putting them away?

The performance on the pitch, on the day can only really be measured by actual goals scored / conceded, but it doesn't make goals scored the only useful measure of how we the coaching team's doing.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Footy-Vill on January 28, 2021, 02:45:45 PM
 XG in 3-2 Burnley v Villa
Burnley 0.77 Aston Villa 2.94
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: eamonn on January 28, 2021, 02:52:06 PM
How are we doing in the xG table? Better than Lawro's Predictions I hope.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Footy-Vill on January 28, 2021, 02:58:29 PM
How are we doing in the xG table? Better than Lawro's Predictions I hope.
Progressed the ball in dangerous way but attack has been short on effectiveness to XG  as 2 less

Under stat XG
1.Man City 38
2.Liverpool 36
3.Villa 35  (actual 33)
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Lastfootstamper on January 28, 2021, 10:06:00 PM
Always love anything that means I can have a pop at spuds. Their xG at half time was 0.09, and by full time against a side who aren't quite at full strength they'd increased that to an awesome 0.14
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Jockey Randall on January 28, 2021, 11:26:17 PM
How are we doing in the xG table? Better than Lawro's Predictions I hope.
Progressed the ball in dangerous way but attack has been short on effectiveness to XG  as 2 less

Under stat XG
1.Man City 38
2.Liverpool 36
3.Villa 35  (actual 33)

Notice on expected points we're also up there in 4th behind Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea.

Looking at the other sides and their totals it suggests maybe Southampton, Everton and Man Utd all have a decent chuck of points that maybe their performances haven't warranted.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Footy-Vill on February 01, 2021, 01:11:13 PM
Source is  The XG philosophy from Twitter.

XG in Southampton 0-1  Aston Villa
Southampton 2.51 Aston Villa 0.86

(And for reference in the Villa 3-4  Southampton
XG was Aston Villa 2.67 Southampton 0.80)

Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: paul_e on February 01, 2021, 02:11:42 PM
Source is  The XG philosophy from Twitter.

XG in Southampton 0-1  Aston Villa
Southampton 2.51 Aston Villa 0.86

(And for reference in the Villa 3-4  Southampton
XG was Aston Villa 2.67 Southampton 0.80)

Sounds about right, we got our own back for their freak result of having 4 shots and scoring all of them. I still think if that game had gone for another 10 minutes we'd have won, the last 15-20minutes was  amongst the most one-sided spells of play I've seen all year.
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Footy-Vill on February 04, 2021, 10:57:05 AM
Aston Villa 1-3 West Ham
XG Aston Villa 0.86 West Ham 1.69
Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: Footy-Vill on February 08, 2021, 10:24:35 AM
Aston Villa 1-0 Arsenal
XG Aston Villa 1.30 Arsenal 0.93

Title: Re: Expected goals
Post by: aj2k77 on February 08, 2021, 03:58:42 PM
Source is  The XG philosophy from Twitter.

XG in Southampton 0-1  Aston Villa
Southampton 2.51 Aston Villa 0.86

(And for reference in the Villa 3-4  Southampton
XG was Aston Villa 2.67 Southampton 0.80)



So we beat them 3.53 - 3.31 on aggregate.
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