Final League Position

[rob_bridge]

The lowest that a team has finished after beginning a top-flight English league season with 4 wins from 4 games is 15th. This has been done three times, including by Aston Villa in 1900/01.

If we beat Leeds we'll be one of only 12 sides to have won five (or more) of their first Premier League games. Of the other eight, Newcastle finished sixth (94/95), all the others top four.

Yeah that was Newcastle being the real original pretenders until they turned up at Old Trafford and got totally spanked

[mike]

I think, especially with Dean Smith as manager, we might have to get used to the idea that Villa are going to be a bit 'streaky', and so we can probably "look forward" to a long run of defeats later in the season.

As of such, I'm keeping my hopes from the start of the season:

Satisfied with: 13th-16th, finishing 6pts+ above 18th
Pretty good season: 9th-12th
Very good season:: 6th-8th -- I think we'd need to get lucky with (a lack of) injuries, but challenging for a Europa League spot, having been in a relegation battle for half of last season, would be an incredible achievement.

Anything above 6th ... that'd be dreamland.

Couldn't give a shit what Wolves or Albion do, they're irrelevant.

Agree with this. Except I'd like to be more than six points ahead of 18th so we can enjoy the end of the season.

[WassallVillain]

Sending off of Egan
Allison and Mane being out for Liverpool
Vardy injured for Leicester

We’ve had a fair bit of luck so far, long May it continue!!

And to add:

Man City: match postponed !!

Sheff Utd : Extra weeks prep/rest. Martinez penalty save no Targett sending off

Fulham: Bobby Decordova-Reid goal disallowed after a VAR mitrovic foul. Martinez only Blunder this season!

Liverpool: No Thiago to run the midfield and no penalty Vs McGinn on Salah

Leicester: No Vardy , Söyüncü, Ndidi.

Leeds: shorter turnaround for match having played Monday night and No Phillips. Defender to play out of position as midfieder.

And a fantastic run of fixtures till after boxing day.

Villa are 16/1 to be top at Xmas

No Soyuncu probably did them a favour. He looked very slow against WHU. I was looking forward to Watkins being up against him.

[SaddVillan]

Have a listen to this. It makes a lot of sense when you look at last season,  substitute Sheff Utd for Newcastle and then compare last year and this year.

https://url6.mailanyone.net/v1/?m=1kVXip-0006KJ-4n&i=57e1b682&c=bM9rasQklnM-qveksUPaXdABTfGnU9kAIhuv1fGLCAUoYhBGq1rXa5MS7euvsyNmT4EdkwsEnJsS0LyNRxSn74mGbXH3p67k_S-Y5U2V4mUCXa-jpgyNl0X8ymziL16dLTf0XJ8SDypZlJFJr3ulXxKWy9LXvz3D4-Hpjm-trPsWtM6aIm1SaQI0BDZIgQ6uGYPPs3POkqz0XtsYMtry6OEs-2F23dLbYCg-YXBwz4s

Looking at last season:
Club........ W    D   L GF GA Pts
Sheff U     14 12 12 39 39  54
A Villa         9   8  21 42 67  35

Looking at the two clubs and taking into account what the bloke says about Newcastle, you can see that Sheff Utd last season were almost a mirror image of Newcastle:
 Their super tight defence compensated for being shot shy and consequently they over achieved.

This season (so far), their goals have dried up a bit, but the defence is struggling - hence wins become draws and draws turn into losses

In comparison, our defence is much improved and we're more varied and effective up front, so in terms of numbers, we've picked up at both ends of the pitch, resulting in extra points.

Early days yet, but the numbers are looking good.

Onwards and upwards!

[Toronto Villa]

Cheers that’s a really good watch. Is it any wonder why Brentford continue to over perform whoever is the manager. And it feels like the hiring of Lange is very much in line with that analytical thinking.

[ADVILLAFAN]

I hope Damo watched that video

[SoccerHQ]

We'll be top ten at least, but we'll have a Gregory-style (1998?) collapse at some point and finish lower than we're promising right now.

That was some collapse btw. Pretty sure we were top of the league still into early February. By final game we finished 6th and behind West Ham which was a bit embarrassing. 12 points off Leeds in 4th although think it was only top 3 who went into CL in those days.

08/09 next worst given how strong we were looking at the time. 3 wins from our final 15 league games.

Think 4 teams did qualify for the Champions League then, as I have a feeling that Villa were the last team to finish 4th (in 1996) and not qualify for it.

We were also the last Runner-up not to qualify for it 🙄

Leeds were in Uefa cup the following season.

Just checked and 4 teams go into CL from 2001/02 season.

Good point on the FA cup though, we were unlucky in that respect although can you imagine our 2015/16 vintage in europe?! Would've probably lost to Total Network Solutions over two legs.

[cdbullyweefan]

Thanks goodness we never qualified. It might have affected our league form.

[maidstonevillain]

Thanks goodness we never qualified. It might have affected our league form.

Joking aside. There were actually some decent players in that team. They may have gelled for a cup run, and carried the form into the league.
And maybe not.

[LeeB]

Thanks goodness we never qualified. It might have affected our league form.

Joking aside. There were actually some decent players in that team. They may have gelled for a cup run, and carried the form into the league.
And maybe not.

Not with that bellend in charge. Take your pick as to which of the three I'm referring to.

[Mister E]

Have a listen to this. It makes a lot of sense when you look at last season,  substitute Sheff Utd for Newcastle and then compare last year and this year.

https://url6.mailanyone.net/v1/?m=1kVXip-0006KJ-4n&i=57e1b682&c=bM9rasQklnM-qveksUPaXdABTfGnU9kAIhuv1fGLCAUoYhBGq1rXa5MS7euvsyNmT4EdkwsEnJsS0LyNRxSn74mGbXH3p67k_S-Y5U2V4mUCXa-jpgyNl0X8ymziL16dLTf0XJ8SDypZlJFJr3ulXxKWy9LXvz3D4-Hpjm-trPsWtM6aIm1SaQI0BDZIgQ6uGYPPs3POkqz0XtsYMtry6OEs-2F23dLbYCg-YXBwz4s

...

Thanks for sharing - really good.
Question is: how is scoring differential (as opposed to goal difference) calculated?

[darren woolley]

I reckon we will finish 13th or 14th but  hope we keep our good run going and finish higher.

[Cleybrooke]

Have a listen to this. It makes a lot of sense when you look at last season,  substitute Sheff Utd for Newcastle and then compare last year and this year.

https://url6.mailanyone.net/v1/?m=1kVXip-0006KJ-4n&i=57e1b682&c=bM9rasQklnM-qveksUPaXdABTfGnU9kAIhuv1fGLCAUoYhBGq1rXa5MS7euvsyNmT4EdkwsEnJsS0LyNRxSn74mGbXH3p67k_S-Y5U2V4mUCXa-jpgyNl0X8ymziL16dLTf0XJ8SDypZlJFJr3ulXxKWy9LXvz3D4-Hpjm-trPsWtM6aIm1SaQI0BDZIgQ6uGYPPs3POkqz0XtsYMtry6OEs-2F23dLbYCg-YXBwz4s

...

Thanks for sharing - really good.
Question is: how is scoring differential (as opposed to goal difference) calculated?

Could some one clever do the sums for Aston Villa over the past two years and prove we really are on the up and that this is nothing to do with luck?

[ADVILLAFAN]

I do remember Deano talking about the number of shots we had created compared to the opposition last season. Think it was after the Chelsea game.

He was saying that our chances of winning had gone up, as we had a higher differential, or something like that. So we must be looking at statistics like this

[Toronto Villa]

The point in the Ted talk was that Newcastle were fucking jammy as shit in their wins over the course of the season and their GD after 38 games was only +5 whereas everyone else was +20 or more. And that Cisse converted 33% of his shots which never happens and even Messi was only 20%. And as it turned out Cisse turned into Scott Hogan the next season. They essentially tried to point out that the best bookies correlate what behaviour is repeatable and sustainable and what isn't. And that what Newcastle did over a full season (which they referred to as a small sample size) was lucky more than talent. So far I would say given our GD, efficiency, defensive stability, conversion rate of chances that ours is more sustainable than luck. But it's only 4 games