Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine

Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: Legion on September 20, 2020, 08:37:33 PM

Title: Final League Position
Post by: Legion on September 20, 2020, 08:37:33 PM
Hoping for 12th but would settle for 16th.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: nigel on September 20, 2020, 08:44:49 PM
Hoping for top 4, but will settle for a relaxing 16th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Steve67 on September 20, 2020, 08:50:03 PM
I reckon around 15th with some green shoots for the season after. I think we will still concede too many silly goals.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ez on September 20, 2020, 08:52:21 PM
13th. That would be acceptable progress for me.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: TelfordVilla on September 20, 2020, 08:57:41 PM
10th I reckon
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Andy Poole on September 20, 2020, 09:04:03 PM
Really? We haven't finished arguing about transfers yet!

Any way. In true Glenn McGrath style. First.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Villan82 on September 20, 2020, 09:27:20 PM
14th.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: WilliamStanding on September 20, 2020, 09:29:01 PM
12th

Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: TelfordVilla on September 20, 2020, 09:29:28 PM
Villa should always expect to finish above Albion, Fulham, Wet spam, Brighton, Sheff Utd, Leeds, Palace, Southampton, Newcastle, Wolves, Leicester and the rest of them next season.[/s]
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: West Derby Villan on September 20, 2020, 09:29:55 PM
14th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: hilts_coolerking on September 20, 2020, 09:31:20 PM
14th or 15th.  Progress is going to be incremental I think.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Legion on September 20, 2020, 09:41:14 PM
Really? We haven't finished arguing about transfers yet!

Any way. In true Glenn McGrath style. First.

Yes, really.

Optimism admired.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Footy-Vill on September 20, 2020, 10:00:57 PM
7-11
Which means 9-10th
Could be higher if we get the right mix of final pieces players
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: AV82EC on September 20, 2020, 10:01:03 PM
12th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: gpbarr on September 20, 2020, 10:21:41 PM
15th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: mallo on September 20, 2020, 10:36:39 PM
15th - were a bit better, but not that much.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: dave.woodhall on September 20, 2020, 10:38:47 PM
If we can't finish above half a dozen of the showers we've seen so far we don't deserve to finish above any of them.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ozzjim on September 20, 2020, 10:43:03 PM
If we can't finish above half a dozen of the showers we've seen sop far we don't deserve to finish above any of them.

Agreed. Some of the defending has been woeful, and adding a bit of pace up top should, if kept fit, see us 14th ish.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: exigo on September 20, 2020, 10:52:10 PM
We're already twelfth, and we've given most of the rest a two game head start. Be nice to stay somewhere around there.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: SoccerHQ on September 20, 2020, 11:22:44 PM
Would be nice to have a season for once where we massively outperform our XG  or whatever the kids on twitter use for football analysis now. Even then it would probably still only be 9th or 10th which would've been underwhelming a decade ago.

Will go for 13th and 10 points clear of 18th.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: maidstonevillain on September 21, 2020, 01:03:38 AM
10th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Axl Rose on September 21, 2020, 01:05:49 AM
16th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: aldridgeboy on September 21, 2020, 03:16:20 AM
Id love to think we can finish bottom of the top half

But would settle for top of the bottom half.


I also cant believe I think this, but it is what it is. Slow progress , looking forward to the return of the good old days.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: CT Villan on September 21, 2020, 03:23:45 AM
Another vote for 14th.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: rob_bridge on September 21, 2020, 06:39:31 AM
15th - still gonna be hard slog in some respects. LB and CM are both problem areas and need Watkins and Wes to score a fair few. Also lot of stock on new GK being a worldie and he has played 100 games in total at age of 28.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: sid1964 on September 21, 2020, 07:37:33 AM
16th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: enigma on September 21, 2020, 07:41:41 AM
14th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ldavfc4eva on September 21, 2020, 07:43:49 AM
I would take 17th again if offered it now, but I think that if the new players gel and the defence is as tight as the last 10 games we will be better than that.

15th place, but only 6 points clear of the drop.

We will be better than last season but not that much better.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Three Spires Villa on September 21, 2020, 08:00:19 AM
14th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: manic-road on September 21, 2020, 08:23:16 AM
14th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Sexual Ealing on September 21, 2020, 08:41:33 AM
1st
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Russ aka Big Nose on September 21, 2020, 08:48:45 AM
1st. I've had a bet at 1,000/1, though I did back us E/W as 2nd would be decent progress. ;)
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: fbriai on September 21, 2020, 08:51:42 AM
10th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: algy on September 21, 2020, 09:10:39 AM
14th, which i'd judge as good progress from last season. That said, i think the measure of success will be the point if/when we reach 38pts.

I'd like to think we'd have a shot at one of the cups, maybe the league cup. Can see a few teams putting it on lower priority this season with the fixture congestion, so it might provide a route in to Europe to fast-track our progress.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Duncan Shaw on September 21, 2020, 09:17:22 AM
I'm hoping 12-14th but without ever really feeling threatened by a relegation battle - that would be real progress for me.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: chrisw1 on September 21, 2020, 09:25:52 AM
Other than Watkins I still don't feel we've improved the starting 11 that much from the start of last season.  The key differences will be him and the new improved Luiz.  I'm still leaning towards 15-18 at the moment.  That may sound negative, but it's a competitive league.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Sexual Ealing on September 21, 2020, 09:29:48 AM
1st. I've had a bet at 1,000/1, though I did back us E/W as 2nd would be decent progress. ;)

EACH WAY?! Bluenose!
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air on September 21, 2020, 09:45:10 AM
Assuming we don't go into full covid lockdown again, and assuming Trump doesn't impose marshall law declaring the US presidential election null and void which coupled with total breakdown in Europe as a result of no deal brexit leading to world war 3 and the abandonment of the season altogether then I really think we have an excellent chance of making top half as I'm by nature an optimist.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: LeeB on September 21, 2020, 10:36:44 AM
Assuming we don't go into full covid lockdown again, and assuming Trump doesn't impose marshall law declaring the US presidential election null and void which coupled with total breakdown in Europe as a result of no deal brexit leading to world war 3 and the abandonment of the season altogether then I really think we have an excellent chance of making top half as I'm by nature an optimist.

Don't forget the rise of the machines, could lose Jack for months thanks to a vengeful cross training machine. 11th to 17th would be acceptable on that outcome.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ez on September 21, 2020, 11:33:52 AM
Theres not been many seasons of late where we haven't gone into the last few games without our fate hanging in the balance one way or another. We're due one of those.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Drummond on September 21, 2020, 12:06:17 PM
1-6 Want
7-11 Hope
12-17 Think
18-20 Don't want to contemplate.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: sickbeggar on September 21, 2020, 12:11:31 PM
Think we'll stay up. May have stayed up anyway without any transfers. Will be in 12th-17th area whether our signings come off or not. 12th-14th if they do. If they don't then 15th-17th with the club dumping Smith in November. That's the main question for me this season - whether Smith survives
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: LeeB on September 21, 2020, 12:22:58 PM
Think we'll stay up. May have stayed up anyway without any transfers. Will be in 12th-17th area whether our signings come off or not. 12th-14th if they do. If they don't then 15th-17th with the club dumping Smith in November. That's the main question for me this season - whether Smith survives

Nah, it's whether England come in for him with us top of the league, when they boot Southgate for defying Covid restrictions and going on a 4 day bender in Alicante.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: sickbeggar on September 21, 2020, 12:28:55 PM
Think we'll stay up. May have stayed up anyway without any transfers. Will be in 12th-17th area whether our signings come off or not. 12th-14th if they do. If they don't then 15th-17th with the club dumping Smith in November. That's the main question for me this season - whether Smith survives

Nah, it's whether England come in for him with us top of the league, when they boot Southgate for defying Covid restrictions and going on a 4 day bender in Alicante.

nah Smith has already been too successful to replace Southgate. The FA will be looking at some guy with one season's experience in the premiership before getting relegated.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: LeeB on September 21, 2020, 12:36:37 PM
Think we'll stay up. May have stayed up anyway without any transfers. Will be in 12th-17th area whether our signings come off or not. 12th-14th if they do. If they don't then 15th-17th with the club dumping Smith in November. That's the main question for me this season - whether Smith survives

Nah, it's whether England come in for him with us top of the league, when they boot Southgate for defying Covid restrictions and going on a 4 day bender in Alicante.

nah Smith has already been too successful to replace Southgate. The FA will be looking at some guy with one season's experience in the premiership before getting relegated.

They'll promote someone from within the 'system' at Burton, so Phil in catering is next in line. That's if he's not called into the playing squad before Jack.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Footy-Vill on September 21, 2020, 12:39:15 PM
Assuming we don't go into full covid lockdown again, and assuming Trump doesn't impose marshall law declaring the US presidential election null and void which coupled with total breakdown in Europe as a result of no deal brexit leading to world war 3 and the abandonment of the season altogether then I really think we have an excellent chance of making top half as I'm by nature an optimist.

This is so brilliant posting !! Bravo! I most hope for last bit though!
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: sickbeggar on September 21, 2020, 12:40:13 PM
I'm trying to think of an ex-England international with no visible ability as a manager apart from failure....Gary Nev?
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Drummond on September 21, 2020, 12:54:01 PM
Aidy Boothroyd surely....
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: LeeB on September 21, 2020, 12:55:42 PM
Aidy Boothroyd surely....

Winner.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on September 21, 2020, 01:14:58 PM
Anything below 12th and I'll be disappointed as I expect would be the owners having ploughed in close to a quarter of a billion quid just on transfers in the last 12 or so months.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: 260475 on September 21, 2020, 01:30:50 PM
Had a Ladbrokes bet on 10th about 4 weeks ago at (rather poor) odds of 7/1, so 10th it is, but no higher.

UTV
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ASHTONVILLA on September 21, 2020, 01:44:23 PM
Mings and Konsa are a bottom half defence based on most of last season, and we have little in reserve there if either get injured. Add in terrible left backs, a rookie right back and a very lightweight midfield and I think we will ship a lot of goals.

Up front we look better, but are still starting the season with one inexperienced striker and hoping they stay fit and hit the ground running. Fortunately I think Watkins will do.

If everything clicks, we have better luck with injuries and sign a couple more I think we are capable of surprising a few and finishing at the top end of the table. This is Villa though so predicting 14th but comfortably away from relegation.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: aev on September 21, 2020, 01:47:14 PM
I can't believe I am the only miserable pessimistic so and so that sees relegation.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: sickbeggar on September 21, 2020, 01:49:04 PM
I can't believe I am the only miserable pessimistic so and so that sees relegation.

Dunno. After seeing Fulham and wba, there's 2 teams we're better than even based on last season's form
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Pat Mustard on September 21, 2020, 01:49:09 PM
I think anywhere between 9th and 14th is likely as cant see more than a handful of points covering the mid table teams this year, who I think we will join. Can see West Brom and Fulham being a way behind the rest, then a group including West Ham, Leeds, Newcastle and possibly Burnley fighting to stay up.

We arent good enough to be any higher than mid table yet, but have enough not to struggle this year from what Ive seen of other teams so far. Plus, Ive got a feeling well have another cup final to look forward to this year.

Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ASHTONVILLA on September 21, 2020, 02:22:04 PM
I'm trying to think of an ex-England international with no visible ability as a manager apart from failure....Gary Nev?

Gareth Southgate
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ozzjim on September 21, 2020, 02:40:34 PM
I can't believe I am the only miserable pessimistic so and so that sees relegation.

I still think it will be tight, and we are only a couple of injuries from a full on relegation fight to the last (or worse)
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ASHTONVILLA on September 21, 2020, 02:51:35 PM
I can't believe I am the only miserable pessimistic so and so that sees relegation.

I still think it will be tight, and we are only a couple of injuries from a full on relegation fight to the last (or worse)

That's where we were last season. McGinn, Mings Grealish, Heaton and Wesley all picked up injuries and we just about survived.  If that lot all did the same this season we also have Watkins, Traore, and Martinez so we do have more depth and quality available up front and in goal at least - hence I reckon we will be safer this time around. If we do not strengthen in central defence, and shore up a very lightweight midfield I can't see us doing very well, but do think we will less close to relegation.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Russ aka Big Nose on September 21, 2020, 03:16:43 PM
1st. I've had a bet at 1,000/1, though I did back us E/W as 2nd would be decent progress. ;)

EACH WAY?! Bluenose!
Blimey, what an incredible spot. 54 years and counting and even I hadn't realised! UTV (maybe ...)
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Mister E on September 21, 2020, 03:27:25 PM
Yes, we're potentially frail in defence if we pick up injuries.
Tonight's game is really important: we need to start off where we finished the mini-league and push on from there. Any poor performance tonight leading to a loss will not give the squad the confidence it badly needs to push on.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Rudy Can't Fail on September 21, 2020, 03:30:13 PM
I can't believe I am the only miserable pessimistic so and so that sees relegation.

Give it 5 hours..
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: supertom on September 21, 2020, 04:27:17 PM
I think we'll hit the low 40 points mark. That'll put us probably 13-16th. We'll make a little progress because we've made good signings but to an extent, you have to make signings to stay still in the Premier League. A lot of the clubs around us are having a bit of a go. If we can continue defending a bit more resolutely as we did after project restart, then I fancy that we'll score enough to win more games. If you look at the promoted clubs coming up, they're all very suspect defensively. A lot of the other bottom half clubs are too (Newcastle have issues). So I do think a lot of games will boil down to who can score 3-4 to win. In all honesty I don't think any side in this division is much cop defensively and even Liverpool look shaky by the standards the set earlier last season.

Keeping Grealish, signing Watkins, McGinn back, and Traore to compete with AEG and Trezeguet, Wesley when he's back. There should be goals in our side. Hourihane will hopefully maintain his end of season form too, because he's always a threat.

So yeah, we'll score more and we'll concede less. I don't think we've got enough to push top 10, but maybe next year. Comfort is the key for this season. In particular, we've got to be winning more against top 10 sides. Is there a side in this league we shouldn't fancy beating on a given day? I don't think so, particularly anyone outside of Liverpool. Spurs, Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea all look beatable, so getting some points off that lot here and there will be key. From around 8th and below anyone can beat anyone. Again though, we have Grealish and he's the class of player who can turn a game. Not every side around us is that fortunate.
Sheffield Utd did exceptionally well last season but I suspect they'll struggle this time. Expect Brighton and Burnley to be scrapping with us too. Southampton will have difficulties as well. The promoted sides will be in a battle. I can't really see any of them being a surprise package. At least two of the three go down for me.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Dr Butler on September 21, 2020, 04:39:25 PM
I would take 14th right now

UTV
The Doc
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Mister E on September 21, 2020, 04:52:18 PM
I think we'll hit the low 40 points mark. That'll put us probably 13-16th. We'll make a little progress because we've made good signings but to an extent, you have to make signings to stay still in the Premier League. A lot of the clubs around us are having a bit of a go. If we can continue defending a bit more resolutely as we did after project restart, then I fancy that we'll score enough to win more games. If you look at the promoted clubs coming up, they're all very suspect defensively. A lot of the other bottom half clubs are too (Newcastle have issues). So I do think a lot of games will boil down to who can score 3-4 to win. In all honesty I don't think any side in this division is much cop defensively and even Liverpool look shaky by the standards the set earlier last season.

Keeping Grealish, signing Watkins, McGinn back, and Traore to compete with AEG and Trezeguet, Wesley when he's back. There should be goals in our side. Hourihane will hopefully maintain his end of season form too, because he's always a threat.

So yeah, we'll score more and we'll concede less. I don't think we've got enough to push top 10, but maybe next year. Comfort is the key for this season. In particular, we've got to be winning more against top 10 sides. Is there a side in this league we shouldn't fancy beating on a given day? I don't think so, particularly anyone outside of Liverpool. Spurs, Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea all look beatable, so getting some points off that lot here and there will be key. From around 8th and below anyone can beat anyone. Again though, we have Grealish and he's the class of player who can turn a game. Not every side around us is that fortunate.
Sheffield Utd did exceptionally well last season but I suspect they'll struggle this time. Expect Brighton and Burnley to be scrapping with us too. Southampton will have difficulties as well. The promoted sides will be in a battle. I can't really see any of them being a surprise package. At least two of the three go down for me.
Win 9-10 games against the clubs we believe will be around us in the table, and take more draws than last season and we should be okay.
Avoid the drubbings we got from Citeh and Leicester last time out.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Footy-Vill on September 23, 2020, 10:44:42 AM




Research and historical data says : As unpredictable as the relegation battle is, it is possible to ensure your Premier League status inside the first 10 matches.

No team with 15 or more points after 10 games has ever gone down, while teams with between 12 and 14 points have a better than 90 per cent chance of survival.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: MalcolmP on September 23, 2020, 01:11:22 PM
11th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Richard E on September 23, 2020, 01:29:34 PM
At the absolute minimum well finish top.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Baldy on October 01, 2020, 03:55:58 PM
52 points at least. Enough to finish 11th.  :)
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Brazilian Villain on October 01, 2020, 04:09:02 PM
Optimism abounds, changed vote to 7-11th.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: chrisf on October 01, 2020, 04:22:35 PM
Sorry if you've all seen this but it made me laugh.

https://twitter.com/AHC_Vlogs/status/1306190296447889411 (https://twitter.com/AHC_Vlogs/status/1306190296447889411)
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: dcdavecollett on October 02, 2020, 01:19:23 AM
12th, for some reason.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Matt C on October 02, 2020, 02:23:08 AM
14th.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Brazilian Villain on October 02, 2020, 09:36:44 AM
Optimism abounds, changed vote to 7-11th.

Pessimism abounds, changed vote to 12-17th.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: PaulTheVillan on October 02, 2020, 11:19:46 AM
13th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Brazilian Villain on October 05, 2020, 12:30:51 PM
The last time we won our first 3 games was 1962/63 when Everton won their first 4 that season as well. They won the league (as they did when they replicated that feat in 1969/70), we finished 15th.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Villa Lew on October 05, 2020, 12:48:59 PM
Yeah I remember it, the 2nd half of that season we had a spell of losing 11 on the bounce.

Back to this season after yesterdays performance looking at a top 4 position, but trying to be realistic feel we can certainly make top half, will have a much better idea after the end of this month, after we've played Leicester, Leeds and Southampton.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Smirker on October 05, 2020, 02:27:01 PM
Yep, next three will be telling.

A draw and a win from the next two and I'd be happy and confident going into the Southampton game.

Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Iamkmkm on October 05, 2020, 02:30:36 PM
If we can beat Liverpool 7-2 then we can win the league.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Risso on October 05, 2020, 02:57:37 PM
Yeah I remember it, the 2nd half of that season we had a spell of losing 11 on the bounce.

Back to this season after yesterdays performance looking at a top 4 position, but trying to be realistic feel we can certainly make top half, will have a much better idea after the end of this month, after we've played Leicester, Leeds and Southampton.

We've got to be looking at a minimum of 9 points from those 3 games.  Minimum.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Brazilian Villain on October 05, 2020, 03:03:54 PM
Yeah I remember it, the 2nd half of that season we had a spell of losing 11 on the bounce.

Back to this season after yesterdays performance looking at a top 4 position, but trying to be realistic feel we can certainly make top half, will have a much better idea after the end of this month, after we've played Leicester, Leeds and Southampton.

We've got to be looking at a minimum of 9 points from those 3 games.  Minimum.

Totally unrealistic, we should be looking at a minimum of 8 points though.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: exigo on October 05, 2020, 03:20:38 PM
We're already nine points clear of the relegation zone. Long may that continue (at the very least).
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: paul_e on October 05, 2020, 03:24:15 PM
Missed this thread, 9-12 was my prediction before looking at the choices so I've gone 7-11 because that has the most overlap. I think we'll get somewhere around 50 points this year because I think we look a lot fitter and that alone will make a big difference to the amount of points we drop late in games. Add in the bit of extra quality we have now and, hopefully, a bit more luck with injuries and I think we'll get 4-5 more wins and a few more draws to never look in any danger.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Monty on October 05, 2020, 03:26:24 PM
I've gone for 1-6, not because I think it, but because if I can't today then when will I?
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: LeeB on October 05, 2020, 03:37:30 PM
I've gone for 1-6, not because I think it, but because if I can't today then when will I?

I agree with Monty.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: chrisw1 on October 05, 2020, 03:39:49 PM
I'm sticking at 12-17, but very happy so far.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: mike on October 05, 2020, 03:57:19 PM
I'm sticking at 12-17, but very happy so far.

Me too. I'm hoping to be nearer 12th now than when I voted, though.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: PaulWinch again on October 05, 2020, 04:06:20 PM
I reckon 12th-14th myself. Hopefully comfortably clear of any relegation scrap.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Risso on October 05, 2020, 05:36:54 PM
When's the title decider between us and Everton?
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Tayls_7 on October 05, 2020, 05:40:29 PM
When's the title decider between us and Everton?

It never takes place. Sky don't allow it and the season is abandoned saving Manchester United from relegation.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: itbrvilla on October 05, 2020, 06:03:28 PM
Think it'll be 7-9 but a few injuries and we could be 11-14.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Baldy on October 17, 2020, 07:02:25 AM
We are 'restricted' in Greece from getting the UK Betting Odds online.

Did I hear correctly that in the last 2/3 weeks Paddy Powers have reduced Villa's odds from 150/1 to 9/1 to finish in the top 6?

Cheers
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Lastfootstamper on October 17, 2020, 07:27:54 AM
The bookie I use has us in to 10/1 for top 6, but that still puts us at 11th favourites in that market. Everton are one of 7 odds-on sides, then there's Leicester, Wolves and Leeds ahead of us. The book on relegation also has us upper bottom half were everyone to finish in odds order, but that's a bit of an improvement from being odds-on a few weeks back. We're still odds-against to finish in the top half.

The missus has a fiver each way on us to win the League, and I know that's come in from 1000/1 when she placed it to 125/1 now. Free money that, I reckon...
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Baldy on October 17, 2020, 08:27:03 AM
Many thanks Lastfootstamper, money in the Bank.  :)

I was listening to some Podcast and a rep from Paddy Powers was highly impressed with Villa's transfer market and recognised McGinn was back on form, Konsa emerging and Jack on fire etc.

Hell of a jump but you don't see many poor bookies!!  :)
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Mister E on October 17, 2020, 09:37:27 AM
Many thanks Lastfootstamper, money in the Bank.  :)
I was listening to some Podcast and a rep from Paddy Powers was highly impressed with Villa's transfer market and recognised McGinn was back on form, Konsa emerging and Jack on fire etc.
Hell of a jump but you don't see many poor bookies!!  :)
still 125/1, tho'
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: JUAN PABLO on October 17, 2020, 12:13:20 PM
12th I had at start of season but 9th I reckon now
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Footy-Vill on October 21, 2020, 09:01:49 AM
The lowest that a team has finished after beginning a top-flight English league season with 4 wins from 4 games is 15th. This has been done three times, including by Aston Villa in 1900/01.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Allan C on October 21, 2020, 09:19:02 AM
I think weve got a top 6 team but, at the moment, a 15th placed squad. Im thinking 12th possibly 10th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Sexual Ealing on October 21, 2020, 09:44:17 AM
UTV indeed, Footy!

As a much more short-term gambler than you, I've got a lucky dip on tonight's lottery and a losing scratchcard. We're on the up!
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on October 21, 2020, 10:49:18 AM
I think we need to have Wolves type luck with injuries, as obviously more of a drop off in quality for us compared to the top teams.

Nice to feel like we can beat anyone on our day though.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: rob_bridge on October 21, 2020, 10:58:21 AM
I said 15th so will edge to the top of the range at 12th

A couple of decent reinforcements in Jan coupled with Wes and Heaton back (assuming both fully recover)

The key is midfield to avoid injuries and suspensions
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Risso on October 21, 2020, 11:03:18 AM
Win tomorrow, and we'll be 6 points clear of dropping out of the top 4, with a massively superior goal difference.  I think we've seen we don't need to fear anybody, my only worry is that we don't really have much in the way of quality replacements for what is a very good first team.  If we keep all the key players fit, I think we'll be top 6 with a realistic chance of top 4.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ChicagoLion on October 21, 2020, 11:16:01 AM
Win tomorrow, and we'll be 6 points clear of dropping out of the top 4, with a massively superior goal difference.  I think we've seen we don't need to fear anybody, my only worry is that we don't really have much in the way of quality replacements for what is a very good first team.  If we keep all the key players fit, I think we'll be top 6 with a realistic chance of top 4.
Injuries and suspensions are inevitable, just hope that the injuries are not too frequent or severe.

Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: robbo1874 on October 21, 2020, 11:26:09 AM
I predicted 13th at the start of the season. Id probably still take it now in all honesty, but it would feel like a disappointment after this start of ours. Weve smashed one of the best teams in the world and edged out a very good Leicester side in what I thought might be our come-uppance match. Dare to dream. A bit.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: brontebilly on October 21, 2020, 12:51:26 PM
Top half....will require about 20 points more than last year but think we are capable. Like most sides, a serious enough injury or two to any of our core players (McGinn, Jack, Luiz, Mings and Watkins) and we could struggle. With the fixture schedule (including internationals), I do think we are going to have to rotate players more.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: rougegorge on October 21, 2020, 12:53:20 PM
Win tomorrow, and we'll be 6 points clear of dropping out of the top 4, with a massively superior goal difference.  I think we've seen we don't need to fear anybody, my only worry is that we don't really have much in the way of quality replacements for what is a very good first team.  If we keep all the key players fit, I think we'll be top 6 with a realistic chance of top 4.
Although you're getting ahead of yourself on the date, I hope you're right about the outcome.

My concerns are exactly the same; maybe I have forgotten how poor we were last season but I was hoping for one or two additional good squad players to back up the great start. I guess January isn't so far away if we can keep it going.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Footy-Vill on October 21, 2020, 04:26:04 PM
Win tomorrow, and we'll be 6 points clear of dropping out of the top 4, with a massively superior goal difference.  I think we've seen we don't need to fear anybody, my only worry is that we don't really have much in the way of quality replacements for what is a very good first team.  If we keep all the key players fit, I think we'll be top 6 with a realistic chance of top 4.
Injuries and suspensions are inevitable, just hope that the injuries are not too frequent or severe.

Villas next 10 matches up to boxing day see no match vs a last year's top 4 and in fact only like of Arsenal and Wolves away considered the toughest of prospects.

There is real opportunity here to be in top to top 4 still by boxing day !
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Sexual Ealing on October 21, 2020, 05:01:02 PM
We'll be top ten at least, but we'll have a Gregory-style (1998?) collapse at some point and finish lower than we're promising right now.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: PeterWithesShin on October 21, 2020, 07:26:41 PM
The lowest that a team has finished after beginning a top-flight English league season with 4 wins from 4 games is 15th. This has been done three times, including by Aston Villa in 1900/01.

Fun fact, Billy Garraty was in that Villa team.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Exeter 77 on October 21, 2020, 07:30:06 PM
The lowest that a team has finished after beginning a top-flight English league season with 4 wins from 4 games is 15th. This has been done three times, including by Aston Villa in 1900/01.

Fun fact, Billy Garraty was in that Villa team.
His great great grandson has a family duty to improve that.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: SoccerHQ on October 21, 2020, 10:00:56 PM
Win tomorrow, and we'll be 6 points clear of dropping out of the top 4, with a massively superior goal difference.  I think we've seen we don't need to fear anybody, my only worry is that we don't really have much in the way of quality replacements for what is a very good first team.  If we keep all the key players fit, I think we'll be top 6 with a realistic chance of top 4.

Get the feeling January is going to be pretty interested if we can keep up this form for another 10 games.

Would imagine the owners will see this season as unique opportunity and sanction money for 2-3 more good players to come in even if one or two are loan deals.

That's something we didn't take full advantage of in some of the MON seasons when we were in top 4 mid season. Little spending in January and then our players who were playing every week due to little on the bench hit the wall physically around March while rivals used their squad far more and the results reflected this.

Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: SoccerHQ on October 21, 2020, 10:03:52 PM
We'll be top ten at least, but we'll have a Gregory-style (1998?) collapse at some point and finish lower than we're promising right now.

That was some collapse btw. Pretty sure we were top of the league still into early February. By final game we finished 6th and behind West Ham which was a bit embarrassing. 12 points off Leeds in 4th although think it was only top 3 who went into CL in those days.

08/09 next worst given how strong we were looking at the time. 3 wins from our final 15 league games.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Footy-Vill on October 21, 2020, 10:56:52 PM
The lowest that a team has finished after beginning a top-flight English league season with 4 wins from 4 games is 15th. This has been done three times, including by Aston Villa in 1900/01.

Fun fact, Billy Garraty was in that Villa team.
His great great grandson has a family duty to improve that.

That's a great fact.
Was Garrity also a forward and skilled player like Jack ? It's hardly ever mentioned in any media coverage of matches just small mention his relative of a villa player
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Exeter 77 on October 21, 2020, 11:02:56 PM
He was in the Villa side which won the FA Cup in 1905 but Jack already has twice as many England  caps.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Garraty?wprov=sfla1
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: purpletrousers on October 22, 2020, 12:05:22 AM
He was in the Villa side which won the FA Cup in 1905 but Jack already has twice as many England  caps.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Billy_Garraty?wprov=sfla1

MOTM in that cup final too. (I had it in my head hed captained us but that was the Prince of Full Backs himself. Not a FairPlay title Matty Cash will be earning after his debagging antics. (Yes, weve been to nice etc, not disagreeing...)
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on October 22, 2020, 07:25:34 AM
We'll be top ten at least, but we'll have a Gregory-style (1998?) collapse at some point and finish lower than we're promising right now.

That was some collapse btw. Pretty sure we were top of the league still into early February. By final game we finished 6th and behind West Ham which was a bit embarrassing. 12 points off Leeds in 4th although think it was only top 3 who went into CL in those days.

08/09 next worst given how strong we were looking at the time. 3 wins from our final 15 league games.

Think 4 teams did qualify for the Champions League then, as I have a feeling that Villa were the last team to finish 4th (in 1996) and not qualify for it.

We were also the last Runner-up not to qualify for it 🙄
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: PaulWinch again on October 22, 2020, 07:42:16 AM
Win tomorrow, and we'll be 6 points clear of dropping out of the top 4, with a massively superior goal difference.  I think we've seen we don't need to fear anybody, my only worry is that we don't really have much in the way of quality replacements for what is a very good first team.  If we keep all the key players fit, I think we'll be top 6 with a realistic chance of top 4.

Yeah I think thats it. The first 11 is really strong, but theres a big drop off to most of the replacements.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Lastfootstamper on October 22, 2020, 08:31:03 AM
We'll be top ten at least, but we'll have a Gregory-style (1998?) collapse at some point and finish lower than we're promising right now.

That was some collapse btw. Pretty sure we were top of the league still into early February. By final game we finished 6th and behind West Ham which was a bit embarrassing. 12 points off Leeds in 4th although think it was only top 3 who went into CL in those days.

08/09 next worst given how strong we were looking at the time. 3 wins from our final 15 league games.

Think 4 teams did qualify for the Champions League then, as I have a feeling that Villa were the last team to finish 4th (in 1996) and not qualify for it.

We were also the last Runner-up not to qualify for it 🙄

A slight tangent, but weren't we also the first team that couldn't qualify for Europe via finishing runners-up in The Cup in 2015?
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: cdbullyweefan on October 22, 2020, 08:32:55 AM
Yeah, Hull qualified in exactly the same circumstances the year before.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Mellin on October 22, 2020, 09:08:52 AM
The lowest that a team has finished after beginning a top-flight English league season with 4 wins from 4 games is 15th. This has been done three times, including by Aston Villa in 1900/01.

If we beat Leeds we'll be one of only 12 sides to have won five (or more) of their first Premier League games. Of the other eight, Newcastle finished sixth (94/95), all the others top four.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: cdbullyweefan on October 22, 2020, 09:31:02 AM
We'll be top ten at least, but we'll have a Gregory-style (1998?) collapse at some point and finish lower than we're promising right now.

That was some collapse btw. Pretty sure we were top of the league still into early February. By final game we finished 6th and behind West Ham which was a bit embarrassing. 12 points off Leeds in 4th although think it was only top 3 who went into CL in those days.

08/09 next worst given how strong we were looking at the time. 3 wins from our final 15 league games.

Think 4 teams did qualify for the Champions League then, as I have a feeling that Villa were the last team to finish 4th (in 1996) and not qualify for it.

We were also the last Runner-up not to qualify for it 🙄

Neither of these facts is true, last fourth placed team not to qualify was Tottenham in 2012, last runner-up not to qualify was Newcastle in 1996.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Moonraker on October 22, 2020, 10:42:57 AM
Two turning points this season which affect our final position. One, not playing Man City first up, gave the newbies another week to settle in and had we lost, say 2-0, which most of us would have expected, suspect we wouldn't have approached the next game with the same attitude or confidence. Two, Martinez saving the pen. What would have happened last season if Heaton had saved that pen 16 seconds in? We will never know, but the save gave us so much confidence to press on.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: stevo_st on October 22, 2020, 10:52:42 AM
Sending off of Egan
Allison and Mane being out for Liverpool
Vardy injured for Leicester

Weve had a fair bit of luck so far, long May it continue!!
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Footy-Vill on October 22, 2020, 10:53:10 AM
The lowest that a team has finished after beginning a top-flight English league season with 4 wins from 4 games is 15th. This has been done three times, including by Aston Villa in 1900/01.

If we beat Leeds we'll be one of only 12 sides to have won five (or more) of their first Premier League games. Of the other eight, Newcastle finished sixth (94/95), all the others top four.

That's a great stat!
I think I'm right in saying no team has won more than first 9 matches at start of a Prem season. Chelsea in 05/06

In Leicester Prem title winning season they had 8pts from first 4 matches and 11pts from first 5 matches

I also have seen that in last 10 season the average  top Four finish: 71.3 points
With the lowest: 66pts Chelsea last season and Manchester City in 2015/16.

Last season Chelsea had 8pts from first 5 matches finishing 4th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on October 22, 2020, 10:58:05 AM
The lowest that a team has finished after beginning a top-flight English league season with 4 wins from 4 games is 15th. This has been done three times, including by Aston Villa in 1900/01.

If we beat Leeds we'll be one of only 12 sides to have won five (or more) of their first Premier League games. Of the other eight, Newcastle finished sixth (94/95), all the others top four.

Would probably settle for finishing 6th this season and then being runners-up next season to be fair
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: N'ZMAV on October 22, 2020, 11:01:10 AM
I'll settle for top ten, as long as it's not a dramatic fall from grace....
I imagine results will bottom out and we'll start dropping points, which is expected obviously.
So a steady season of improvement and a top half finish would be fantastic.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: PGW on October 22, 2020, 11:01:28 AM
Sending off of Egan
Allison and Mane being out for Liverpool
Vardy injured for Leicester

Weve had a fair bit of luck so far, long May it continue!!

Now Calvin Phillips plus their centre half
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Footy-Vill on October 22, 2020, 11:06:28 AM
Sending off of Egan
Allison and Mane being out for Liverpool
Vardy injured for Leicester

Weve had a fair bit of luck so far, long May it continue!!

And to add:

Man City: match postponed !!

Sheff Utd : Extra weeks prep/rest. Martinez penalty save no Targett sending off

Fulham: Bobby Decordova-Reid goal disallowed after a VAR mitrovic foul. Martinez only Blunder this season!

Liverpool: No Thiago to run the midfield and no penalty Vs McGinn on Salah

Leicester: No Vardy , Sync, Ndidi.

Leeds: shorter turnaround for match having played Monday night and No Phillips. Defender to play out of position as midfieder.

And a fantastic run of fixtures till after boxing day.

Villa are 16/1 to be top at Xmas
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Footy-Vill on October 22, 2020, 11:07:35 AM
I'll settle for top ten, as long as it's not a dramatic fall from grace....
I imagine results will bottom out and we'll start dropping points, which is expected obviously.
So a steady season of improvement and a top half finish would be fantastic.

Have you seen the 10 Villa fixtures up to Boxing day though?
6 at home 4 Away
Many winnable , no top 4 opposition. Only Arsenal and Wolves away as the most challenging of matches.
6 home matches all winnable Leeds, Soton, Brighton, Newcastle, Burnley and Palace on boxing Day.
Certainly could remain undefeated at home very least.
Can really consolidate a healthy 1st half season points tally just from home form

Away West Ham , WBA
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: TonyD on October 22, 2020, 11:16:13 AM
I'll settle for top ten, as long as it's not a dramatic fall from grace....
I imagine results will bottom out and we'll start dropping points, which is expected obviously.
So a steady season of improvement and a top half finish would be fantastic.

Have you seen the 10 Villa fixtures up to Boxing day though?
6 at home 4 Away
Many winnable , no top 4 opposition. Only Arsenal and Wolves away as the most challenging of matches.
6 home matches all winnable Leeds, Soton, Brighton, Newcastle, Burnley and Palace on boxing Day.
Certainly could remain undefeated at home very least.
Can really consolidate a healthy 1st half season points tally just from home form

Away West Ham , WBA
Sending off of Egan
Allison and Mane being out for Liverpool
Vardy injured for Leicester

Weve had a fair bit of luck so far, long May it continue!!

And to add:

Man City: match postponed !!

Sheff Utd : Extra weeks prep/rest. Martinez penalty save no Targett sending off

Fulham: Bobby Decordova-Reid goal disallowed after a VAR mitrovic foul. Martinez only Blunder this season!

Liverpool: No Thiago to run the midfield and no penalty Vs McGinn on Salah

Leicester: No Vardy , Sync, Ndidi.

Leeds: shorter turnaround for match having played Monday night and No Phillips. Defender to play out of position as midfieder.

And a fantastic run of fixtures till after boxing day.

Villa are 16/1 to be top at Xmas

16/1 at Xmas.  That has to worth a punt as Covid could also temporarily halt games with up on top....?!
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Clampy on October 22, 2020, 11:35:53 AM
I'll settle for top ten, as long as it's not a dramatic fall from grace....
I imagine results will bottom out and we'll start dropping points, which is expected obviously.
So a steady season of improvement and a top half finish would be fantastic.

Have you seen the 10 Villa fixtures up to Boxing day though?
6 at home 4 Away
Many winnable , no top 4 opposition. Only Arsenal and Wolves away as the most challenging of matches.
6 home matches all winnable Leeds, Soton, Brighton, Newcastle, Burnley and Palace on boxing Day.
Certainly could remain undefeated at home very least.
Can really consolidate a healthy 1st half season points tally just from home form

Away West Ham , WBA

Let's not get carried away.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: maidstonevillain on October 22, 2020, 11:39:34 AM
I'll settle for top ten, as long as it's not a dramatic fall from grace....
I imagine results will bottom out and we'll start dropping points, which is expected obviously.
So a steady season of improvement and a top half finish would be fantastic.

Have you seen the 10 Villa fixtures up to Boxing day though?
6 at home 4 Away
Many winnable , no top 4 opposition. Only Arsenal and Wolves away as the most challenging of matches.
6 home matches all winnable Leeds, Soton, Brighton, Newcastle, Burnley and Palace on boxing Day.
Certainly could remain undefeated at home very least.
Can really consolidate a healthy 1st half season points tally just from home form

Away West Ham , WBA
Sending off of Egan
Allison and Mane being out for Liverpool
Vardy injured for Leicester

Weve had a fair bit of luck so far, long May it continue!!

And to add:

Man City: match postponed !!

Sheff Utd : Extra weeks prep/rest. Martinez penalty save no Targett sending off

Fulham: Bobby Decordova-Reid goal disallowed after a VAR mitrovic foul. Martinez only Blunder this season!

Liverpool: No Thiago to run the midfield and no penalty Vs McGinn on Salah

Leicester: No Vardy , Sync, Ndidi.

Leeds: shorter turnaround for match having played Monday night and No Phillips. Defender to play out of position as midfieder.

And a fantastic run of fixtures till after boxing day.

Villa are 16/1 to be top at Xmas

16/1 at Xmas.  That has to worth a punt as Covid could also temporarily halt games with up on top....?!
That is a very interesting point. I am very tempted.
I am not generally a betting person, although I did try to get some money on Villa to be promoted at 45/1 half wat through the Derby game. ****** internet.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Lastfootstamper on October 22, 2020, 11:39:42 AM
The lowest that a team has finished after beginning a top-flight English league season with 4 wins from 4 games is 15th. This has been done three times, including by Aston Villa in 1900/01.

If we beat Leeds we'll be one of only 12 sides to have won five (or more) of their first Premier League games. Of the other eight, Newcastle finished sixth (94/95), all the others top four.

That's a great stat!
I think I'm right in saying no team has won more than first 9 matches at start of a Prem season. Chelsea in 05/06

In Leicester Prem title winning season they had 8pts from first 4 matches and 11pts from first 5 matches

I also have seen that in last 10 season the average  top Four finish: 71.3 points
With the lowest: 66pts Chelsea last season and Manchester City in 2015/16.

Last season Chelsea had 8pts from first 5 matches finishing 4th
So nothing startling at any point, at 1.6ppg they'd have finished on 61.  Keeping out any one of Leicester's goals against them during the season would have then seen them finish above Leicester anyway.  I think if we can avoid a lengthy barren run this side of Christmas and can add a couple of players in January where we can recruit from a position of strength, who knows what we can achieve.  And I'd fkn love it if we're joined in our storm up the table by at least one of the other upstarts who don't know their place.  I'd bear seeing wolves finish top three as long as it's below us. 
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Risso on October 22, 2020, 11:45:57 AM
Yes,  I'd love to see the panic if it was say, us, Everton and Wolves taking three of the four Champions League spots going into the New Year.  The usual suspects would be holding all night Covid parties.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: DennisHodgetts on October 22, 2020, 11:50:14 AM
The Big Three  ;D
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: algy on October 22, 2020, 11:52:06 AM
I think, especially with Dean Smith as manager, we might have to get used to the idea that Villa are going to be a bit 'streaky', and so we can probably "look forward" to a long run of defeats later in the season.

As of such, I'm keeping my hopes from the start of the season:

Satisfied with: 13th-16th, finishing 6pts+ above 18th
Pretty good season: 9th-12th
Very good season:: 6th-8th -- I think we'd need to get lucky with (a lack of) injuries, but challenging for a Europa League spot, having been in a relegation battle for half of last season, would be an incredible achievement.

Anything above 6th ... that'd be dreamland.

Couldn't give a shit what Wolves or Albion do, they're irrelevant.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: rob_bridge on October 22, 2020, 12:21:43 PM
The lowest that a team has finished after beginning a top-flight English league season with 4 wins from 4 games is 15th. This has been done three times, including by Aston Villa in 1900/01.

If we beat Leeds we'll be one of only 12 sides to have won five (or more) of their first Premier League games. Of the other eight, Newcastle finished sixth (94/95), all the others top four.

Yeah that was Newcastle being the real original pretenders until they turned up at Old Trafford and got totally spanked
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: mike on October 22, 2020, 01:55:37 PM
I think, especially with Dean Smith as manager, we might have to get used to the idea that Villa are going to be a bit 'streaky', and so we can probably "look forward" to a long run of defeats later in the season.

As of such, I'm keeping my hopes from the start of the season:

Satisfied with: 13th-16th, finishing 6pts+ above 18th
Pretty good season: 9th-12th
Very good season:: 6th-8th -- I think we'd need to get lucky with (a lack of) injuries, but challenging for a Europa League spot, having been in a relegation battle for half of last season, would be an incredible achievement.

Anything above 6th ... that'd be dreamland.

Couldn't give a shit what Wolves or Albion do, they're irrelevant.


Agree with this. Except I'd like to be more than six points ahead of 18th so we can enjoy the end of the season.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: WassallVillain on October 22, 2020, 04:54:57 PM
Sending off of Egan
Allison and Mane being out for Liverpool
Vardy injured for Leicester

Weve had a fair bit of luck so far, long May it continue!!

And to add:

Man City: match postponed !!

Sheff Utd : Extra weeks prep/rest. Martinez penalty save no Targett sending off

Fulham: Bobby Decordova-Reid goal disallowed after a VAR mitrovic foul. Martinez only Blunder this season!

Liverpool: No Thiago to run the midfield and no penalty Vs McGinn on Salah

Leicester: No Vardy , Sync, Ndidi.

Leeds: shorter turnaround for match having played Monday night and No Phillips. Defender to play out of position as midfieder.

And a fantastic run of fixtures till after boxing day.

Villa are 16/1 to be top at Xmas

No Soyuncu probably did them a favour. He looked very slow against WHU. I was looking forward to Watkins being up against him.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: SaddVillan on October 22, 2020, 07:51:53 PM
Have a listen to this. It makes a lot of sense when you look at last season,  substitute Sheff Utd for Newcastle and then compare last year and this year.

https://url6.mailanyone.net/v1/?m=1kVXip-0006KJ-4n&i=57e1b682&c=bM9rasQklnM-qveksUPaXdABTfGnU9kAIhuv1fGLCAUoYhBGq1rXa5MS7euvsyNmT4EdkwsEnJsS0LyNRxSn74mGbXH3p67k_S-Y5U2V4mUCXa-jpgyNl0X8ymziL16dLTf0XJ8SDypZlJFJr3ulXxKWy9LXvz3D4-Hpjm-trPsWtM6aIm1SaQI0BDZIgQ6uGYPPs3POkqz0XtsYMtry6OEs-2F23dLbYCg-YXBwz4s

Looking at last season:
Club........ W    D   L GF GA Pts
Sheff U     14 12 12 39 39  54
A Villa         9   8  21 42 67  35

Looking at the two clubs and taking into account what the bloke says about Newcastle, you can see that Sheff Utd last season were almost a mirror image of Newcastle:
 Their super tight defence compensated for being shot shy and consequently they over achieved.

This season (so far), their goals have dried up a bit, but the defence is struggling - hence wins become draws and draws turn into losses

In comparison, our defence is much improved and we're more varied and effective up front, so in terms of numbers, we've picked up at both ends of the pitch, resulting in extra points.

Early days yet, but the numbers are looking good.

Onwards and upwards!
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Toronto Villa on October 22, 2020, 09:43:32 PM
Cheers thats a really good watch. Is it any wonder why Brentford continue to over perform whoever is the manager. And it feels like the hiring of Lange is very much in line with that analytical thinking.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on October 22, 2020, 11:01:44 PM
I hope Damo watched that video
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: SoccerHQ on October 23, 2020, 12:30:27 AM
We'll be top ten at least, but we'll have a Gregory-style (1998?) collapse at some point and finish lower than we're promising right now.

That was some collapse btw. Pretty sure we were top of the league still into early February. By final game we finished 6th and behind West Ham which was a bit embarrassing. 12 points off Leeds in 4th although think it was only top 3 who went into CL in those days.

08/09 next worst given how strong we were looking at the time. 3 wins from our final 15 league games.

Think 4 teams did qualify for the Champions League then, as I have a feeling that Villa were the last team to finish 4th (in 1996) and not qualify for it.

We were also the last Runner-up not to qualify for it 🙄

Leeds were in Uefa cup the following season.

Just checked and 4 teams go into CL from 2001/02 season.

Good point on the FA cup though, we were unlucky in that respect although can you imagine our 2015/16 vintage in europe?! Would've probably lost to Total Network Solutions over two legs.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: cdbullyweefan on October 23, 2020, 01:26:13 PM
Thanks goodness we never qualified. It might have affected our league form.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: maidstonevillain on October 23, 2020, 03:14:06 PM
Thanks goodness we never qualified. It might have affected our league form.

Joking aside. There were actually some decent players in that team. They may have gelled for a cup run, and carried the form into the league.
And maybe not.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: LeeB on October 23, 2020, 03:17:45 PM
Thanks goodness we never qualified. It might have affected our league form.

Joking aside. There were actually some decent players in that team. They may have gelled for a cup run, and carried the form into the league.
And maybe not.

Not with that bellend in charge. Take your pick as to which of the three I'm referring to.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Mister E on October 23, 2020, 04:53:31 PM
Have a listen to this. It makes a lot of sense when you look at last season,  substitute Sheff Utd for Newcastle and then compare last year and this year.

https://url6.mailanyone.net/v1/?m=1kVXip-0006KJ-4n&i=57e1b682&c=bM9rasQklnM-qveksUPaXdABTfGnU9kAIhuv1fGLCAUoYhBGq1rXa5MS7euvsyNmT4EdkwsEnJsS0LyNRxSn74mGbXH3p67k_S-Y5U2V4mUCXa-jpgyNl0X8ymziL16dLTf0XJ8SDypZlJFJr3ulXxKWy9LXvz3D4-Hpjm-trPsWtM6aIm1SaQI0BDZIgQ6uGYPPs3POkqz0XtsYMtry6OEs-2F23dLbYCg-YXBwz4s (https://url6.mailanyone.net/v1/?m=1kVXip-0006KJ-4n&i=57e1b682&c=bM9rasQklnM-qveksUPaXdABTfGnU9kAIhuv1fGLCAUoYhBGq1rXa5MS7euvsyNmT4EdkwsEnJsS0LyNRxSn74mGbXH3p67k_S-Y5U2V4mUCXa-jpgyNl0X8ymziL16dLTf0XJ8SDypZlJFJr3ulXxKWy9LXvz3D4-Hpjm-trPsWtM6aIm1SaQI0BDZIgQ6uGYPPs3POkqz0XtsYMtry6OEs-2F23dLbYCg-YXBwz4s)

...
Thanks for sharing - really good.
Question is: how is scoring differential (as opposed to goal difference) calculated?
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: darren woolley on October 23, 2020, 06:01:56 PM
I reckon we will finish 13th or 14th but  hope we keep our good run going and finish higher.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Cleybrooke on October 23, 2020, 06:52:57 PM
Have a listen to this. It makes a lot of sense when you look at last season,  substitute Sheff Utd for Newcastle and then compare last year and this year.

https://url6.mailanyone.net/v1/?m=1kVXip-0006KJ-4n&i=57e1b682&c=bM9rasQklnM-qveksUPaXdABTfGnU9kAIhuv1fGLCAUoYhBGq1rXa5MS7euvsyNmT4EdkwsEnJsS0LyNRxSn74mGbXH3p67k_S-Y5U2V4mUCXa-jpgyNl0X8ymziL16dLTf0XJ8SDypZlJFJr3ulXxKWy9LXvz3D4-Hpjm-trPsWtM6aIm1SaQI0BDZIgQ6uGYPPs3POkqz0XtsYMtry6OEs-2F23dLbYCg-YXBwz4s (https://url6.mailanyone.net/v1/?m=1kVXip-0006KJ-4n&i=57e1b682&c=bM9rasQklnM-qveksUPaXdABTfGnU9kAIhuv1fGLCAUoYhBGq1rXa5MS7euvsyNmT4EdkwsEnJsS0LyNRxSn74mGbXH3p67k_S-Y5U2V4mUCXa-jpgyNl0X8ymziL16dLTf0XJ8SDypZlJFJr3ulXxKWy9LXvz3D4-Hpjm-trPsWtM6aIm1SaQI0BDZIgQ6uGYPPs3POkqz0XtsYMtry6OEs-2F23dLbYCg-YXBwz4s)

...
Thanks for sharing - really good.
Question is: how is scoring differential (as opposed to goal difference) calculated?

Could some one clever do the sums for Aston Villa over the past two years and prove we really are on the up and that this is nothing to do with luck?
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: ADVILLAFAN on October 23, 2020, 07:12:31 PM
I do remember Deano talking about the number of shots we had created compared to the opposition last season. Think it was after the Chelsea game.

He was saying that our chances of winning had gone up, as we had a higher differential, or something like that. So we must be looking at statistics like this
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Toronto Villa on October 23, 2020, 07:17:24 PM
The point in the Ted talk was that Newcastle were fucking jammy as shit in their wins over the course of the season and their GD after 38 games was only +5 whereas everyone else was +20 or more. And that Cisse converted 33% of his shots which never happens and even Messi was only 20%. And as it turned out Cisse turned into Scott Hogan the next season. They essentially tried to point out that the best bookies correlate what behaviour is repeatable and sustainable and what isn't. And that what Newcastle did over a full season (which they referred to as a small sample size) was lucky more than talent. So far I would say given our GD, efficiency, defensive stability, conversion rate of chances that ours is more sustainable than luck. But it's only 4 games
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: maidstonevillain on October 23, 2020, 08:03:02 PM
Have a listen to this. It makes a lot of sense when you look at last season,  substitute Sheff Utd for Newcastle and then compare last year and this year.

https://url6.mailanyone.net/v1/?m=1kVXip-0006KJ-4n&i=57e1b682&c=bM9rasQklnM-qveksUPaXdABTfGnU9kAIhuv1fGLCAUoYhBGq1rXa5MS7euvsyNmT4EdkwsEnJsS0LyNRxSn74mGbXH3p67k_S-Y5U2V4mUCXa-jpgyNl0X8ymziL16dLTf0XJ8SDypZlJFJr3ulXxKWy9LXvz3D4-Hpjm-trPsWtM6aIm1SaQI0BDZIgQ6uGYPPs3POkqz0XtsYMtry6OEs-2F23dLbYCg-YXBwz4s (https://url6.mailanyone.net/v1/?m=1kVXip-0006KJ-4n&i=57e1b682&c=bM9rasQklnM-qveksUPaXdABTfGnU9kAIhuv1fGLCAUoYhBGq1rXa5MS7euvsyNmT4EdkwsEnJsS0LyNRxSn74mGbXH3p67k_S-Y5U2V4mUCXa-jpgyNl0X8ymziL16dLTf0XJ8SDypZlJFJr3ulXxKWy9LXvz3D4-Hpjm-trPsWtM6aIm1SaQI0BDZIgQ6uGYPPs3POkqz0XtsYMtry6OEs-2F23dLbYCg-YXBwz4s)

...
Thanks for sharing - really good.
Question is: how is scoring differential (as opposed to goal difference) calculated?

Could some one clever do the sums for Aston Villa over the past two years and prove we really are on the up and that this is nothing to do with luck?

On the basis of last season, WBA and Fulham, and either us or Newcastle are going to be relegated.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: TaxDodger on October 23, 2020, 09:54:25 PM
After tonight I think we might have to settle for 4th
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: SoccerHQ on October 23, 2020, 09:55:21 PM
Finishing above Leeds will be a good season given what we saw tonight. They certainly aren't finishing in the bottom 6.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: PaulWinch again on October 23, 2020, 09:56:15 PM
14th.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: SoccerHQ on October 23, 2020, 09:59:09 PM
14th.

Bit harsh.

It's one bad game and premier league has shown already every single team is capable of this sort of defeat.

It's how you react that's the key. Wolves lost 4-0 at West Ham and have won the next two 1-0 so that's the sort of mentality you need to be a proper top half team in premier league.

Next week will tell us plenty if we're capable of that yet.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Risso on October 24, 2020, 12:18:30 AM
Danny Ings will have watched that tonight and will be rubbing his hands.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: SoccerHQ on October 24, 2020, 12:20:48 AM
We've just got to show some bottle and grind up an ugly 1-0. Wolves actually done that, were abysmal at West Ham losing 4 nil and plenty thought they were in crisis and two 1-0 wins later they're right behind us again.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Richard E on October 24, 2020, 07:10:50 AM
After last night we might have to settle for only winning the title by 10-15 points rather than 20+.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on October 25, 2020, 12:36:26 PM
When did Leicester lose their first game in their PL winning season?  Thats the barometer. 
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: stubbsyandy on October 25, 2020, 12:45:49 PM
Lost their seventh game 2-5 to Arsenal at home. Three draws and three wins
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on October 25, 2020, 12:49:56 PM
Blimey weve got our work cut out then!  The alternative way to look at it is we are probably only 25 points away from safety with 33 to okay.  Less than a point a game.  I wouldve taken that after five.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: SoccerHQ on October 25, 2020, 01:42:46 PM
Lost their seventh game 2-5 to Arsenal at home. Three draws and three wins

They actually didn't have that great a start to a season (for a title winning team). Even after beating us they only won 1 of their next 4 and overall 4 wins from their first 9 games so barring a disaster over next month we should do better than their start.

They then went on mass winning run from November onwards and didn't really stop.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: CT on October 25, 2020, 02:06:53 PM
Ive gone for 7-11 which Id take gladly now, but just feel were an injury to Watkins&Grealish away from easily being the level below.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Toronto Villa on October 25, 2020, 02:25:15 PM
Watching Everton's movement right now vs Southampton you can see that they are a few very signings ahead of us. And that over the course of ther season will apply to a number of sides who over a number of years have been buying just overall better players. I think as superb as our start has been it's inevitable we will fall back into mid table. We need to find a way to overcome defeats quickly, turn losing positions into points, maintain winning positions are at minimum not lose all 3. Things that we triggled to do last season. That would be progress. And then next summer build with 2 or 3 more Barkley level players, maybe even one Jack level to just improve the first XI and strengthen/deepen the options off the bench. So for me after 5 games I can see us finishing worst 11th, at best 7th, so I'll go for 9th this season.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Vegas on October 25, 2020, 02:40:28 PM
Watching Everton's movement right now vs Southampton you can see that they are a few very signings ahead of us. And that over the course of ther season will apply to a number of sides who over a number of years have been buying just overall better players. I think as superb as our start has been it's inevitable we will fall back into mid table. We need to find a way to overcome defeats quickly, turn losing positions into points, maintain winning positions are at minimum not lose all 3. Things that we triggled to do last season. That would be progress. And then next summer build with 2 or 3 more Barkley level players, maybe even one Jack level to just improve the first XI and strengthen/deepen the options off the bench. So for me after 5 games I can see us finishing worst 11th, at best 7th, so I'll go for 9th this season.

I agree with pretty much all of that, but would be a bit more pessimistic on finishing position. I would say most likely is 10th-12th or so. Think the self-styled big 6, Everton, Leicester, Wolves, possibly West Ham, possibly Southampton and annoyingly possibly Leeds have a bit more depth than us. With a favourable run of form and injuries we could get top 8 maybe but that would be a very good outcome.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: SoccerHQ on October 25, 2020, 02:48:42 PM
Watching Everton's movement right now vs Southampton you can see that they are a few very signings ahead of us. And that over the course of ther season will apply to a number of sides who over a number of years have been buying just overall better players. I think as superb as our start has been it's inevitable we will fall back into mid table. We need to find a way to overcome defeats quickly, turn losing positions into points, maintain winning positions are at minimum not lose all 3. Things that we triggled to do last season. That would be progress. And then next summer build with 2 or 3 more Barkley level players, maybe even one Jack level to just improve the first XI and strengthen/deepen the options off the bench. So for me after 5 games I can see us finishing worst 11th, at best 7th, so I'll go for 9th this season.

Even a squad stacked like Everton struggles when they get injuries, the young kid at RB has been mullered this half with Coleman out.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Toronto Villa on October 25, 2020, 02:48:49 PM
I think Leeds will slip back as they usually do in the second half of the season. But going forward they also will become stronger and deeper and buy players for the entire campaign that allow them to keep their energy level high and maintain that style. And they need to keep Bielsa obviously who I can see ending up at Barcelona. I reckon they will finish just behind us.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: Toronto Villa on October 25, 2020, 02:52:26 PM
Watching Everton's movement right now vs Southampton you can see that they are a few very signings ahead of us. And that over the course of ther season will apply to a number of sides who over a number of years have been buying just overall better players. I think as superb as our start has been it's inevitable we will fall back into mid table. We need to find a way to overcome defeats quickly, turn losing positions into points, maintain winning positions are at minimum not lose all 3. Things that we triggled to do last season. That would be progress. And then next summer build with 2 or 3 more Barkley level players, maybe even one Jack level to just improve the first XI and strengthen/deepen the options off the bench. So for me after 5 games I can see us finishing worst 11th, at best 7th, so I'll go for 9th this season.

Even a squad stacked like Everton struggles when they get injuries, the young kid at RB has been mullered this half with Coleman out.

No doubt. That why I think the much deeper squads will prevail. What is also very different this season is just how compressed and taxing cup competitions will be especially for those in Europe. Even the big squads will be tested so it might allow for a more even league campaign or as we have seen a number of very unlikely results every week.
Title: Re: Final League Position
Post by: kippaxvilla2 on October 25, 2020, 07:27:57 PM
Well Ive plotted our way to 46 points from our current position which I would be very happy with.
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