Relegation Watch

[Jockey Randall]

It bothers me that unlike Villa (or Watford), Bournemouth will go into their game on Sunday with one big advantage over the others, ie Bournemouth know absolutely what they need to do - they simply need to win.  For them, nothing less than a win will be of any use.  Not only that, Bournemouth will also know that a win for them by a single goal will be as good as a win by 2,3, 4 or however many goals, regardless of what Villa or Watford are doing.  So nothing that happens elsewhere should deflect them from that one single, simple objective - to win their game, by means of any score.

Villa and Watford on the other hand will go into their games knowing that the results or indeed the scores that they need may change however many times, as games elsewhere twist and turn as the afternoon unfolds, including of course what's happening with Bournemouth.

I don't like it.

On the positive side if you're Everton it's a slight advantage as if you give nothing away first half, you can then hit them on the break when they have to commit more and more forward towards the end. They could end up with a 3-0 win they barely deserve. Hopefully they will be 2-0 up at half time and it ends 5-0 so we don't have to go through it all being tight but it's still not a great position for Bournemouth to be in.

[paul_e]

Nice piece today in the Express and Star telling us that we were writing Dean off when we were seven points behind and seemingly down.  Worth a read but I wish he'd written it after this Sunday and after we are absolutely staying up!

Its funny how we always seem to get  more favourable journalism  from the Wolverhampton E&S than the Birmingham Mail.

They don't have to chase hits and their Villa writer is an absolute top man.

Yep, they're just a better newspaper all-round, from my experience.

I wouldn't go that far. They're horribly right-wing.

right wing papers generally have better sports coverage to be fair.

[chrisw1]

Well I for one would rather be in our position than Bournemouths.  And a 1 goal win would all but guarantee survival for us, so we can have the same attitude as Bournemouth if we feel it helps.

With that said, I do think they are a dangerous outsider.  I can certainly see them beating Everton.

[paul_e]

It bothers me that unlike Villa (or Watford), Bournemouth will go into their game on Sunday with one big advantage over the others, ie Bournemouth know absolutely what they need to do - they simply need to win.  For them, nothing less than a win will be of any use.  Not only that, Bournemouth will also know that a win for them by a single goal will be as good as a win by 2,3, 4 or however many goals, regardless of what Villa or Watford are doing.  So nothing that happens elsewhere should deflect them from that one single, simple objective - to win their game, by means of any score.

Villa and Watford on the other hand will go into their games knowing that the results or indeed the scores that they need may change however many times, as games elsewhere twist and turn as the afternoon unfolds, including of course what's happening with Bournemouth.

I don't like it.

This doesn't really make any sense. Bournemouth could win by 10 and know they're relying on us and Watford both losing. They don't have the same pressure because they only have any influence on a 3rd of the games that matter to them. Our situation is far more controlled, don't lose and match the Watford result or better, we're in full control of our fate.

The 'what if...' scenarios are stacked in our favour and the bookies clearly reflect that. If we win 1-0 then Watford need to either beat Arsenal by 3 or by 1 in a 7-6 victory.  Odds for Watford to win 3-0 are 40/1 (I'm averaging out on oddschecker) and to win 4-1 is 66/1, the 7-6 option isn't even listed as a fringe bet (but 10-0 Arsenal is). Us to win is 6/5 or 5/4 on almost all the bookies listed.

Just to round out the odds you can get, at best, 1/25 on Bournemouth staying up.

[PeterWithe]

Nice piece today in the Express and Star telling us that we were writing Dean off when we were seven points behind and seemingly down.  Worth a read but I wish he'd written it after this Sunday and after we are absolutely staying up!

Its funny how we always seem to get  more favourable journalism  from the Wolverhampton E&S than the Birmingham Mail.

They don't have to chase hits and their Villa writer is an absolute top man.

Yep, they're just a better newspaper all-round, from my experience.

I wouldn't go that far. They're horribly right-wing.

right wing papers generally have better sports coverage to be fair.

Der Sturmer had a very imformative wallchart for the 1936 Olympics.

[PeterWithesShin]

It bothers me that unlike Villa (or Watford), Bournemouth will go into their game on Sunday with one big advantage over the others, ie Bournemouth know absolutely what they need to do - they simply need to win.  For them, nothing less than a win will be of any use.  Not only that, Bournemouth will also know that a win for them by a single goal will be as good as a win by 2,3, 4 or however many goals, regardless of what Villa or Watford are doing.  So nothing that happens elsewhere should deflect them from that one single, simple objective - to win their game, by means of any score.

Villa and Watford on the other hand will go into their games knowing that the results or indeed the scores that they need may change however many times, as games elsewhere twist and turn as the afternoon unfolds, including of course what's happening with Bournemouth.

I don't like it.

This doesn't really make any sense. Bournemouth could win by 10 and know they're relying on us and Watford both losing. They don't have the same pressure because they only have any influence on a 3rd of the games that matter to them. Our situation is far more controlled, don't lose and match the Watford result or better, we're in full control of our fate.

The 'what if...' scenarios are stacked in our favour and the bookies clearly reflect that. If we win 1-0 then Watford need to either beat Arsenal by 3 or by 1 in a 7-6 victory.  Odds for Watford to win 3-0 are 40/1 (I'm averaging out on oddschecker) and to win 4-1 is 66/1, the 7-6 option isn't even listed as a fringe bet (but 10-0 Arsenal is). Us to win is 6/5 or 5/4 on almost all the bookies listed.

Just to round out the odds you can get, at best, 1/25 on Bournemouth staying up.

[PeterWithesShin]

I hope we win 1-0 and they win 7-6 as they'll still be relegated.

[paul_e]

I hope we win 1-0 and they win 7-6 as they'll still be relegated.

yes sorry, it's 8-6, which doesn't really make it any more likely.

[Flamingo Lane]

It bothers me that unlike Villa (or Watford), Bournemouth will go into their game on Sunday with one big advantage over the others, ie Bournemouth know absolutely what they need to do - they simply need to win.  For them, nothing less than a win will be of any use.  Not only that, Bournemouth will also know that a win for them by a single goal will be as good as a win by 2,3, 4 or however many goals, regardless of what Villa or Watford are doing.  So nothing that happens elsewhere should deflect them from that one single, simple objective - to win their game, by means of any score.

Villa and Watford on the other hand will go into their games knowing that the results or indeed the scores that they need may change however many times, as games elsewhere twist and turn as the afternoon unfolds, including of course what's happening with Bournemouth.

I don't like it.

This doesn't really make any sense. Bournemouth could win by 10 and know they're relying on us and Watford both losing. They don't have the same pressure because they only have any influence on a 3rd of the games that matter to them. Our situation is far more controlled, don't lose and match the Watford result or better, we're in full control of our fate.

This is my point - Bournemouth don't have the same pressure.  That's going to help them.  Also, in so far as we may have 'full control of our fate' this is only by dint of a notional ability to react to events elsewhere - my worry is that looking to events happening elsewhere isn't going to help our focus - play the game and not the situation I think is the cliche.

I know this is glass half empty territory, and obviously I'd rather be in our position right now than Bournemouth's.  But what did you say are the odds you can get, just on Bournemouth staying up? 

[cdbearsfan]

Every Bournemouth fan on the planet would rather be in our position. It's far from impossible that they stay up, but they're clearly third favourites.

Best odds on Bournemouth staying up are 14/1 on Betfair.

[paul_e]

This is my point - Bournemouth don't have the same pressure.  That's going to help them.  Also, in so far as we may have 'full control of our fate' this is only by dint of a notional ability to react to events elsewhere - my worry is that looking to events happening elsewhere isn't going to help our focus - play the game and not the situation I think is the cliche.

I know this is glass half empty territory, and obviously I'd rather be in our position right now than Bournemouth's.  But what did you say are the odds you can get, just on Bournemouth staying up? 

I looked the other way round it was 1/25 on Bournemouth being relegated. at best. A lot of the bookies are 1/40 on it. That's as close as a foregone conclusion as they get in football betting.

Back to the first paragraph, it's not because of being able to react, it's because if we win we're highly likely to claim 17th because Watford are unlikely to get the 3 goal victory they need. If they went 3-0 up and we were sitting on on a 1-0 lead then we'd need to react but that's pretty much the only scenario where we need to care.

The pressure is different for Bournemouth because they're already accepted relegation as highly likely and are just playing the game out because they have to. If us and Watford both go behind then Bournemouth are suddenly under far greater pressure than either of us because they'll see a slim chance of staying up but know that it's fragile even if they do their part and get a lead.

[dorsetvillian]

Could be interesting for us watching in Bournemouth. Not sure yet if we can find a pub to accommodate us, or TV El Fresco at a secret location. We decided that we need each others company to get through the last day torture. UTV

[cdbearsfan]

Well, you can all cheer together if Arsenal score.

[Richard E]

Well, you can all cheer together every time Arsenal score.

FTFY

[Rory]

Nice piece today in the Express and Star telling us that we were writing Dean off when we were seven points behind and seemingly down.  Worth a read but I wish he'd written it after this Sunday and after we are absolutely staying up!

Its funny how we always seem to get  more favourable journalism  from the Wolverhampton E&S than the Birmingham Mail.

They don't have to chase hits and their Villa writer is an absolute top man.

Yep, they're just a better newspaper all-round, from my experience.

I wouldn't go that far. They're horribly right-wing.

Ah, I didn't know that. I only read it when I'm bored at the in-laws'. Whereas when I'm at my parents' I don't even read the Birmingham Mail out of curiosity.