From the equivalent 11 fixtures coming up taking us to the halfway mark of the season on Boxing Day, Fulham picked up 10 points, winning only 3 of them.If we do the same we'll be on 18 points at halfway which will put us on course for 18th place and relegation.I would say 5 wins from the next 11 games would put us on track for survival. 22-23 points from 19 games would be fine and probably mean we won't "do a Fulham".But that is easy said than done, looking particularly at the away fixtures.The home games in that run are;BrightonLiverpoolNewcastleLeicesterSouthamptonNorwichAway games Man CityWolvesMan UtdChelseaSheff Utd
The maths are fairly simple for me.To "deserve" to stay up, we should be beating the bottom half teams at home (which is 27 points), leaving only 11 points (ie 3 wins and 2 draws) from the remaining 29 games.I know we've already fluffed this to an extent, but for every Brighton at home there's an Everton at home so over the course of a season it should even itself out.If we win less than half our home games though we're going to struggle.