Dean Smith - Confirmed

[themossman]

But the new narrative now is ‘well we’ve improved this season, what did you expect‘
Well I expected more last season for a start
Where we are now is where we should’ve been last year
I’ve heard all the excuses of why we aren’t and I’m not bothered it’s not a race to the bottom

I won't quote everything but this bit, for me, shows a lack of understanding of what happens to play off winners. Since the formation of the premier league well over half of teams promoted from the play offs have been relegated the next season. A team that finishes 3-6 in the championship is out of its depth in the premier league and the only way around that is to spend big on improving the squad but that comes with it's own dangers of "doing a Fulham" because you're going into a very competitive league with a squad that are still getting to know each other.

a play off team not going back down is always an achievement, history shows that clearly.

I’m not sure you can throw us in with playoff winners as a homogenous group though. We were underperforming spectacularly in the championship, relative to resources, before the run that took us into the playoffs. We had a lot of player turnover but still had a more expensive squad than your typical team promoted through the playoffs. And we had one of the best players in the league, which is unusual for a team in that position.

[Chris Smith]

I think you have to factor in injuries to key players when passing judgement. Has Klopp become a poor manager because they’ve gone backwards without van Dijk? Or Nuno as they’ve dropped a few places without Jimenez?

The sort of short term thinking that calls for a change of manager every couple of years rarely brings success. While we are going forward under Smith I see no reason to change.

[Mister E]

I'm not suggesting Potter should replace Smith at this time, but I do think he's done a brilliant job at Brighton, despite their lowly status. They played really well at VP last season, losing 2-1 to a late goal, and have also played some great football this season. Their defence is excellent (I'd take any or all of Dunk, Webster and White) and in Trossard and Bissouma have two super midfielders. Their problem has been the injured-forced absence of Welbeck this season: when he's played, they look like they have goals in them; without, not.
Smith ain't going anywhere at this time; that seems pretty clear. So, it's all about the close season: how they recruit and how they adapt the playing style to become more flexible and more resolute.

[Dave P]

They were the only team this season to rip us a new one at Villa Park. At Elland Road we strangled the life out of the game and left them confused and with 3 points.

West Ham also ripped us to shreds at VP and, but for a dodgy VAR call and a missed pen, we'd have got something in the away game there as well.

[john e]

I would take Potter over Smith tomorrow. I think Deano is great, I think he has done really well to get us to safety, and then kick on, but if we are as ambitious as claimed, then he needs to be replaced with someone tactically more astute sooner rather than later. Leeds are the prime example of a manager making the difference, they have a decent championship squad with 3-4 good players on top, and Bielsa has extracted every last ounce of ability from them. No way any other manager with that squad gets close to 55 points. Spurs should be offering him the earth on a stick to go there. Problem we have is every manager in the land knows how we will line up every week, the way we will play, the time we will make subs etc. We have no variation, no ability to change things. If Smith is going to kick us on to the top 6 as per the will of the owners, he is going to have to adapt and improve too.

The saddest bit of this post which makes my heart sink when I read it is the part where are you say every manager in the land knows how we will lineup,knows how we will play and knows when we will make our subs
Dean Smith is no way near as bad as Lambert McLeish and Bruce but that is exactly what They did week after week
There’s a big problem right there

I often see people say Dean is learning on the job and if he is I’ve got no problem but I’d like to see it manifested in tactics and playing formations on the pitch every so often

[brontebilly]

Dean Smith quoted in the express and star as saying we only need 2 to 3 players this summer rather than a load of players. I think this is probably right but depends on the three players and whether they are up there with the likes of Jack, so they can take some of the pressure off him. If we don’t sign a good quality defensive central midfielder I will be shocked as we have to control the centre of the park more. I reckon Tammy is nailed on, we will spend big on a 10 and I hope and pray for a DCM.

We will have a number of players leaving too, mostly squad players but they still need to be replaced. Heaton, Elmo, Engels, Taylor, Hourihane, Barkley. I can't see the likes of Guilbert, Nakamba, Davis or Wesley sticking around either. DCM and ACM urgently required and a better quality backup to Watkins capable of playing 8-10 games next season.

[paul_e]

I would take Potter over Smith tomorrow. I think Deano is great, I think he has done really well to get us to safety, and then kick on, but if we are as ambitious as claimed, then he needs to be replaced with someone tactically more astute sooner rather than later. Leeds are the prime example of a manager making the difference, they have a decent championship squad with 3-4 good players on top, and Bielsa has extracted every last ounce of ability from them. No way any other manager with that squad gets close to 55 points. Spurs should be offering him the earth on a stick to go there. Problem we have is every manager in the land knows how we will line up every week, the way we will play, the time we will make subs etc. We have no variation, no ability to change things. If Smith is going to kick us on to the top 6 as per the will of the owners, he is going to have to adapt and improve too.

The second half of this post contradicts the first.

Everyone knows the line-up Leeds will put out.
Everyone knows how Leeds will play
Leeds don't mix things up or change anything much, they have a way of playing and stick to it and Bielsa gets praise for that. Smith has a way of playing and sticks to it and he gets criticism for being tactically naive.

[paul_e]

Dean Smith quoted in the express and star as saying we only need 2 to 3 players this summer rather than a load of players. I think this is probably right but depends on the three players and whether they are up there with the likes of Jack, so they can take some of the pressure off him. If we don’t sign a good quality defensive central midfielder I will be shocked as we have to control the centre of the park more. I reckon Tammy is nailed on, we will spend big on a 10 and I hope and pray for a DCM.

We will have a number of players leaving too, mostly squad players but they still need to be replaced. Heaton, Elmo, Engels, Taylor, Hourihane, Barkley. I can't see the likes of Guilbert, Nakamba, Davis or Wesley sticking around either. DCM and ACM urgently required and a better quality backup to Watkins capable of playing 8-10 games next season.

Engels has come out and said he plans to stay. Barkley, Elmo, Taylor and Heaton are all out of contract and we'll have known they were going for a while and Hourihane was loaned out so is pretty clearly not in our thinking (you can add Kalinic here as well).

The 4 extras you added will, in my opinion, only go if Smith wants them to so if they leave it'll be because we don't think they're needed.

[Monty]

Well Bielsa overachieves with his method, whereas Smith arguably achieves par. Which is pretty impressive given the ludicrous competitiveness of the top flight, and there are plenty of managers who'll achieve less and find continuous employment.

[Clampy]

I do understand why the predictable tag gets thrown at Smith sometimes. Take tonight, I wonder if maybe Kessler on the right hand side of the front three instead of Bert might be an idea? I know the Under 18's is a different test to what he'd face tonight but he seems good going forward and a decent finisher. Also, against Palace. He threw on both Davis and Wes to salvage a point. He could have put Chukwemeka on instead and tried something different.

[Villan82]

I'd struggle to name 4 Leeds players but they are comfortably 7 points ahead of us in their first season whereas we now have several international players including one of the best players in Europe if not the world.

I think Smith has earned another crack at it by the way. I just think one of the downsides of him being a villa fan is that he can sometimes sort of get a free pass whereas I feel any manager backed with big money should be subject to scrutiny.

[brontebilly]

I would take Potter over Smith tomorrow. I think Deano is great, I think he has done really well to get us to safety, and then kick on, but if we are as ambitious as claimed, then he needs to be replaced with someone tactically more astute sooner rather than later. Leeds are the prime example of a manager making the difference, they have a decent championship squad with 3-4 good players on top, and Bielsa has extracted every last ounce of ability from them. No way any other manager with that squad gets close to 55 points. Spurs should be offering him the earth on a stick to go there. Problem we have is every manager in the land knows how we will line up every week, the way we will play, the time we will make subs etc. We have no variation, no ability to change things. If Smith is going to kick us on to the top 6 as per the will of the owners, he is going to have to adapt and improve too.

The second half of this post contradicts the first.

Everyone knows the line-up Leeds will put out.
Everyone knows how Leeds will play
Leeds don't mix things up or change anything much, they have a way of playing and stick to it and Bielsa gets praise for that. Smith has a way of playing and sticks to it and he gets criticism for being tactically naive.

Bielsa certainly mixed things up for their dreary home game v Man United recently. They sat very deep not giving Man United's forwards any space. A surprising dose of pragmatism, got them a point. 

[brontebilly]

Dean Smith quoted in the express and star as saying we only need 2 to 3 players this summer rather than a load of players. I think this is probably right but depends on the three players and whether they are up there with the likes of Jack, so they can take some of the pressure off him. If we don’t sign a good quality defensive central midfielder I will be shocked as we have to control the centre of the park more. I reckon Tammy is nailed on, we will spend big on a 10 and I hope and pray for a DCM.

We will have a number of players leaving too, mostly squad players but they still need to be replaced. Heaton, Elmo, Engels, Taylor, Hourihane, Barkley. I can't see the likes of Guilbert, Nakamba, Davis or Wesley sticking around either. DCM and ACM urgently required and a better quality backup to Watkins capable of playing 8-10 games next season.

Engels has come out and said he plans to stay. Barkley, Elmo, Taylor and Heaton are all out of contract and we'll have known they were going for a while and Hourihane was loaned out so is pretty clearly not in our thinking (you can add Kalinic here as well).

The 4 extras you added will, in my opinion, only go if Smith wants them to so if they leave it'll be because we don't think they're needed.

It's still a lot of first team squad players leaving this summer (6-10), unless there are players from the youth team ready to step up we will certainly need more than the 2-3 additions Smith is suggesting.

[paul_e]

Well Bielsa overachieves with his method, whereas Smith arguably achieves par. Which is pretty impressive given the ludicrous competitiveness of the top flight, and there are plenty of managers who'll achieve less and find continuous employment.

Which is a fairer assessment, Smith isn't a worse manager than Bielsa, Klopp or Guardiola because he has a system he likes to stick to and he doesn't experiment enough. He doesn't have their experience and isn't as creative in how he sets up a system which is why they're all world class managers and he's not. That doesn't mean he can't still take us forward, we've all seen how this team can play at their best and it's the best football I've seen from a villa team in years (probably since Atkinson).

The performances against Liverpool and Arsenal set a benchmark, we can either be disappointed that we haven't matched that consistently enough since (it's been flashes here and there during games) or we can be optimistic that as the squad improves that consistency will come and we'll be better next year.

[Monty]

Well Bielsa overachieves with his method, whereas Smith arguably achieves par. Which is pretty impressive given the ludicrous competitiveness of the top flight, and there are plenty of managers who'll achieve less and find continuous employment.

Which is a fairer assessment, Smith isn't a worse manager than Bielsa, Klopp or Guardiola because he has a system he likes to stick to and he doesn't experiment enough. He doesn't have their experience and isn't as creative in how he sets up a system which is why they're all world class managers and he's not. That doesn't mean he can't still take us forward, we've all seen how this team can play at their best and it's the best football I've seen from a villa team in years (probably since Atkinson).

The performances against Liverpool and Arsenal set a benchmark, we can either be disappointed that we haven't matched that consistently enough since (it's been flashes here and there during games) or we can be optimistic that as the squad improves that consistency will come and we'll be better next year.

The question is - to what extent is he coaching the best out of his players, and is it enough? I saw an interview with that flavour-of-the-month RB Leipzig defender (I'm starting to be completely hopeless with names) and he said that Nagelsmann can improve players in a single conversation. Now, that's obviously an exaggeration, but only to some extent, and we have to ask ourselves what Smith does to improve players in training.

Because he undoubtedly does improve players. We could all pick examples and doubtless some could think of counters (e.g. Konsa, who maybe just had that talent all along), but to my mind the obvious one is Matt Targett, who has gone from a shaky contributor to a player who really knows his role and executes it consistently. Against this, to my mind, is Douglas Luiz, who seems to have gone backwards this year. Perhaps this is just down to himself, but it could also be that Smith doesn't coach the positional play well enough that is so vital in modern top-level midfields.

These are questions we can't really answer perfectly. Everything in football is a gamble - there's a reason we keep referring to this as 'stick or twist' - and we just have to ask ourselves if the improvement we've got really is enough. Because we all remember how MON improved us to a certain level, before his flaws had us bumping our heads against a ceiling that we've never yet reached again.