2018-19 Points Swingometer

[SoccerHQ]

Norwich and Boro dropping points tonight.

Looking like a low total needed for 2nd this year, you won't be needing 90 points + anyway.

[jwarry]

Next 5 games:

Forest (H)
Boro (A)
Baggies (A)
Stoke (H)
Leeds (H)

4 of those 5 against teams above us with only 9 points separating us from top and 4 points off a playoff spot. We are very confident right now. Other teams will know that. We can come out of this very much in the hunt for an automatic spot.

Unlikely I know, but win all of those and we are in the top 2. Thing is I trust Dean to mix things up at the right time not because the lads are tired.

[PeterWithesShin]

At the current PPG rate Leeds would be second with 87. Majority of seasons that's enough for second.

[SoccerHQ]

At the current PPG rate Leeds would be second with 87. Majority of seasons that's enough for second.

Our last two games are Leeds away and Norwich at home!

Seems written to me, about time we had a cliff hanger end to a league season anyway.

[cdbearsfan]

Technically, a point gained yesterday, even if it didn't feel like it.

[ktvillan]

Second place is good enough and failing that we're easily good enough to get in the play-offs and win them.  10 points behind Leeds now but we have to play them twice, so it's more than possible to pull them back a bit. Luck has not exactly been with us recently - Reading missing a pen at Leeds, Leeds getting a rather fortunate pen yesterday,  Norwich scraping a win in injury time and Albion robbing us of 2 points in injury time.  And we've dropped points through unforced defensive errors as well at Norwich, QPR and against Forest.   Yet we've still taken 14 out of 18 in our last 6. If/when our luck turns, and we get a  better keeper and fullbacks, I think we could go on a very strong run after New year where the run of fixtures is not that daunting.  If we just miss out we can thank Bruce for all those dropped points in very winnable games.  The useless twat.

[footyskillz]

AFTER 24 matches on Boxing Day :

2017: W10 D8 L6 F32 A24 GD 8. 38pts

2018: W9  D9 L6 F46 A37 GD 9. 36pts

Boxing day 2017 after 24 matches :
8th place 38 points
17 points off top spot
9 points from automatic place
3 points from playoffs

1   Wolverhampton
55pts
2   Bristol City        
47pts
3   Cardiff City        
47pts
4   Derby County   
45pts
5   Leeds United        
42pts
6   Sheffield United
41pts
7   Middlesbrough   
38pts
8   Aston Villa         38pts

Boxing Day 2018 after 24 matches:
9th place 36 points
15 points from top spot
12 points from automatic
3 points from play offs


1   Leeds United             51pts
2   Norwich City             48pts
3   WBA                         45pts
4   Sheffield United     41pts
5   Middlesbrough       39pts
6   Derby County          39pts
7   Birmingham City    37pts
8   QPR                     37pts
9   Aston Villa             36pts

[footyskillz]

I thought it'd be interesting to see of the three teams who have been promoted in the last few years, where each team has been after 10 games, and how many points they have. Teams with an * going up via the play offs.


2017/18
Wolves - 4th 20 pts
Cardiff - 1st 23 pts
Fulham* - 10th 15 pts


2016/17
Newcastle - 3rd 19 pts
Brighton - 4th 18 pts
Huddersfield* - 1st 22 pts


2015/16
Burnley - 6th 18pts
Middlesbrough - 2nd 20 pts
Hull* - 5th 18 pts


2014/15
Bournemouth - 15th 12 pts
Watford - 3rd - 20 pts
Norwich* - 1st 20 pts


2013/14
Leicester - 3rd 23 pts
Burnley - 1st 23 pts
QPR* - 2nd 23 pts (after 9 games)


So in 5 years with 15 teams going up, only two teams have ever been outside of the top 6 this at this stage of the season, and only once has a team going up automatically having been outside the top 6 at this stage.  Both of the teams, Fulham and Bournemouth, went on unbelievable unbeaten runs to make up for a poor start.  The clear and obvious stat is that to go up, it's extremely difficult to make up for a poor start, hardly anybody ever does it, and most teams who go up average about 2 points in their first 10 games.


In short, that hopeless arse Fistface has buggered us for another season.

Any chance of one of these soon or after  New year's Day match next week.

Interesting reading and wondered on teams at half way point?!

[brentastonb6]

There’s lies, damn lies and statistics. 66 points to play for, we can drop 9 and surely  go up on 93points  losing to Small, Leeds plus one other away ?

[Ads]

Lose to Small Heath? Trololololol

[Villa75]

Any chance of an update, cd/footyskillz?

[cdbearsfan]

Had forgotten all about it, sorry. Maybe selective memory... will have a go tomorrow, will likely make depressing reading!

[cdbearsfan]

Updated OP. Down to an estimated position of ninth.

[Ads]

Chance to claw to back on last season though.

[cdbearsfan]

Agreed. Next five games are Hull (h), Ipswich (h), Reading (a), Sheff Utd (h) and Brentford (a). We only managed five points from the equivalent games last season.