Heroes & Villains, the Aston Villa fanzine
Heroes & Villains => Heroes Discussion => Topic started by: cdbearsfan on August 07, 2018, 12:45:03 PM
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Where we can compare our results with last season to try to estimate where we are likely to finish.
Results listed as home result, away result, points. So if we won at home and drew away, it would say WD4.
"-" means we have yet to play match(es).
Last season's results listed to the left of the team names, this season's scores listed to the right.
I'll try to update this after each game.
WD4 Birmingham City WW6
WW6 Blackburn Rovers (replacing Burton Albion) WD4
WL3 Bolton Wanderers WW6
DL1 Brentford DL1
WD4 Bristol City WD-
DL1 Derby County WW6
DD2 Hull City DW4
WW6 Ipswich Town WD4
WD4 Leeds United L--
DW4 Middlesbrough WW-
DL1 Millwall -L-
WL3 Norwich City -L-
WW6 Nottingham Forest DW4
DW4 Preston North End DD2
LW3 Queens Park Rangers DL1
WL3 Reading DD2
WW6 Rotherham United (replacing Sunderland) WW-
DW4 Sheffield United DL1
LW3 Sheffield Wednesday LW3
WL3 Stoke City (replacing Cardiff City) DD2
WL3 Swansea City (replacing Wolverhampton Wanderers) WW6
WL3 West Bromwich Albion (replacing Fulham) LD1
WW6 Wigan Athletic (replacing Barnsley) WL3
Running total for season: 72 points
Last year's total in equivalent matches: 78 points
Balance +/-: -6 points
Estimated final points total: 77
Estimated final position: 5th (down one from last season)
Last updated after: Bolton Wanderers (a), game forty-three
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So, a winning start to the campaign sees us two points better off than last season already. We are unable to gain any more points in our next two games though as we beat Barnsley at home (have been replaced by Saturday's opponents Wigan) and Ipswich away last season.
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Oooh, a swingometer, great work CD. :)
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Didn’t we draw away at Forest? Seem to remember a Lansbury equaliser.
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Didn’t we draw away at Forest? Seem to remember a Lansbury equaliser.
Won 1-0. Lansbury equalised in the home game the season before I seem to remember.
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Didn’t we draw away at Forest? Seem to remember a Lansbury equaliser.
Won 1-0. Lansbury equalised in the home game the season before I seem to remember.
I'm always wrong.
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Didn’t we draw away at Forest? Seem to remember a Lansbury equaliser.
Won 1-0. Lansbury equalised in the home game the season before I seem to remember.
I'm always wrong.
Think about it, Lansbury was our player all last season so it must've been the year before.
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Didn’t we draw away at Forest? Seem to remember a Lansbury equaliser.
Won 1-0. Lansbury equalised in the home game the season before I seem to remember.
I'm always wrong.
Think about it, Lansbury was our player all last season so it must've been the year before.
I refer the Honorable gentleman to the answer I gave before.
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Didn’t we draw away at Forest? Seem to remember a Lansbury equaliser.
Maybe you’re thinking of Leeds away
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Didn’t we draw away at Forest? Seem to remember a Lansbury equaliser.
Maybe you’re thinking of Leeds away
That's the one. Ta.
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I'm sure Sky said we lost two nil to Hull last season
I remember the home draw. But not the away nil nil.
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I'm sure Sky said we lost two nil to Hull last season
I remember the home draw. But not the away nil nil.
It was the last of that crap 3 game run we had after beating Wolves.
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I'm sure Sky said we lost two nil to Hull last season
I remember the home draw. But not the away nil nil.
I heard that too, and they had it as part of the "info" on their TV guide. It was nil-nil, though. I remember watching drunkenly in a pub in Aberdeen after watching Clyde get battered by Peterhead.
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By my reckoning a 'swing' of 7 points to give us 90 points should definitely be enough. Tough call though, looking at the players at our disposal.
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Excellent idea, CDBWF.
I think a cool graphic with Alan Hutton pointing to the latest total is the only thing missing for me.
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Agree its an ace idea but i'd go with a youthfull gabby gif if we're doing well, a flabby gabby if we're doing so-so and a muscly gabby if the wheels have fallen off.
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If you think I know how to attach graphics, or even pictures, you are massively overrating my technological skills!
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By my reckoning a 'swing' of 7 points to give us 90 points should definitely be enough. Tough call though, looking at the players at our disposal.
I go win qpr home 3 extra
I go win Millwall 2 extra
I go win hull at home 2 extra
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Replacing Barnsley on the swing this was a 3 points ! And another away which could prove tricky !
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No change after week two's victory over Wigan Athletic (formerly known as Barnsley).
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Under RDM we started with 1 in 12. Last season was 1 win in 7 (and could be said was the biggest difference between us and Cardiff). So 2 wins in 2 is already very promising. Especially since our situation has meant players have and are coming in late, things are a bit up in the air and will be better once everything has settled down.
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Last season 6 points of Ipswich so needing the away win tomorrow
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Back to zero. Boo.
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Still no change. We need to win the next FOUR just to avoid going into minus points.
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-2.
Shitebags.
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Thank you for doing this CD. Top work.
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Wins at Sheffield Utd and Blackburn required just to stay at -2? Hmm...could be a long, frustrating season.
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By my reckoning a 'swing' of 7 points to give us 90 points should definitely be enough. Tough call though, looking at the players at our disposal.
I go win qpr home 3 extra
I go win Millwall 2 extra
I go win hull at home 2 extra
As we are now -2 I suggest we add win Preston at home +2 to balance it out. 90 points should give us a chance.
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We only played 45 competitive league games last season. That will impact the stats.
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Not really, as we always lose at Millwall.
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One competitive game since the 80s?
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Yeah, which we lost. We also lost their in the eighties. Regardless, there is no guarantee that our last game won't be similarly insignificant this season. And in any case, we finished five points adrift of third place and seven clear of fifth position, so that game made no odds.
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Minus five after that shambles.
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Whats the difference between Michael Foot and Steve Bruce ?
Foot managed to come second.
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Minus 7 now, if Blackburn = Burton?
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That's shit!
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Time for some uptodate flashy graphics to illustrate the point.
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4057/4585006242_2b30dd965f_b.jpg)
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Minus 7 now, if Blackburn = Burton?
Correct. Updating this thread is getting increasingly depressing.
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Minus 7 now, if Blackburn = Burton?
Correct. Updating this thread is getting increasingly depressing.
Don’t worry, games at the beginning of the season don’t count, just like last season.
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No change after the Millers.
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Who were top last season and how many points ?
And what was top 6 ?
Villa 5 points off top in 6th place .
And 2 points off automatic.
Could be 4 points if Boro win tomorrow.
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Time for some uptodate flashy graphics to illustrate the point.
(https://c1.staticflickr.com/5/4057/4585006242_2b30dd965f_b.jpg)
Excellent. Makes sense to me. :o
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Last year the top six clubs separated by 2 points . After 8 matches
Middlesbrough, Aston Villa and Fulham – are not even top 6 and made those play-off places.
Villa and Fulham aren’t even in the top half – they were 7 points behind Leeds, Wolves and Cardiff, who sit at the top of the table with 17 points after 8 matches
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Last year's top seven (so we can see what just missed the playoffs)...
1 Wolves 99 points
2 Cardiff 90
3 Fulham 88
4 Villa 83
5 Middlesbrough 76
6 Derby 75
7 Preston 73
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Last year after 8 rounds
1 Leeds United 17
2 Wolverhampton Wanderers17
3 Cardiff City 17
4 Preston North End 15
5 Ipswich Town 15
6 Sheffield United 15
And villa had 10 points after 8 matches
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So isn't that a swing of plus 3.
3 points more this season
Can't we swing this way instead.
Like also monitor progress as to each number of matches played in comparison to last season.
Of course I get the like for like fixture and swing idea .
Just saying to that at stages of season and comparing fixture periods could be looked at too.
So positive wise we can say we are 3 points more .
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Sounds good. You can keep an eye on how we get on week by week if that's OK? I'm far too lazy to do both. 😊
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Hey I'll chip in with the assist now and again - periodically!
Like that's period wise after such and such amount of matches .
Just indication .
In the meantime:
Keep swinging !
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Opportunity missed today. Still minus 7.
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(https://www.thenorthernecho.co.uk/resources/images/5206938.jpg?type=article-full)
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After 9 matches
2017/18: 9th place 13 points 7 point tos off top and promotion places.
League Championship table last season 2017
1 Leeds United 9 20pts
2 Wolves 9 20pts
3 Cardiff City 9 20pts
4 Sheffield United 9 18pts
5 Preston 9 16pts
6 Middlesbrough 9 15pts
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7 Ipswich Town 8 15
8 Bristol City 9 14
9 Aston Villa 9 13
2018/19: After 9 matches 12 th place 13 points . 5 points off top place and promotion places
League Championship table as it stands now (2018-19 season)
1 Leeds 9 18pts
2 Middlesbrough 9 18pts
3 WBA. 9 17pts
4 Sheffield United 9 16pts
5 Wigan Athletic 9 16pts
6 Derby County 9 16pts
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7 Brentford 9 15pts
8 Bristol City 9 14pts
9 Nott Forest 9 14pts
10 Shef Wed. 9 14pts
11 Blackburn Rovers 9 14pts
12 Aston Villa 9 13pts
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But we've played no one of calibre, Brentford aside. I'd fancy Blose to beat us easily at the moment.
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If we lose or draw next Friday we will be either three or two points worse off than after 10 games last season. Last season we had already played the mighty Cardiff, the play off losers Reading, Brentford obviously, Bristol City and Derby away. This season we have had two what you might say decent opposition games and got one point. It will be another typical catch up season if he stays in charge. Well actually it already is.
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Interesting to see no Fulham or Derby in that table last season - just shows that with the right manager it's all still to play for.
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We'll only swing when we're winning
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And get a new manager in!
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-8 now?
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Still -7, we matched last year's result.
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Where are we on the 'Footyskillz swingometer'?
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I think you have to Jon Snow yellow boots to supervise a swingometer.
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He knows nothing.
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Where are we on the 'Footyskillz swingometer'?
-2. A win on Tuesday is needed to merely tread water on the skillz-o-meter, but it'd pull us up to -5 on the ppcg*-o-meter
*points per corresponding game
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Where are we on the 'Footyskillz swingometer'?
-2. A win on Tuesday is needed to merely tread water on the skillz-o-meter, but it'd pull us up to -5 on the ppcg*-o-meter
*points per corresponding game
After 10 matches
2017/18 :16 points
(2 points of play offs, 5 points off auto, 7 points off top)
2018/19: 14 points
(4 points of play offs, 5 points off auto , 6 points off top)
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I thought it'd be interesting to see of the three teams who have been promoted in the last few years, where each team has been after 10 games, and how many points they have. Teams with an * going up via the play offs.
2017/18
Wolves - 4th 20 pts
Cardiff - 1st 23 pts
Fulham* - 10th 15 pts
2016/17
Newcastle - 3rd 19 pts
Brighton - 4th 18 pts
Huddersfield* - 1st 22 pts
2015/16
Burnley - 6th 18pts
Middlesbrough - 2nd 20 pts
Hull* - 5th 18 pts
2014/15
Bournemouth - 15th 12 pts
Watford - 3rd - 20 pts
Norwich* - 1st 20 pts
2013/14
Leicester - 3rd 23 pts
Burnley - 1st 23 pts
QPR* - 2nd 23 pts (after 9 games)
So in 5 years with 15 teams going up, only two teams have ever been outside of the top 6 this at this stage of the season, and only once has a team going up automatically having been outside the top 6 at this stage. Both of the teams, Fulham and Bournemouth, went on unbelievable unbeaten runs to make up for a poor start. The clear and obvious stat is that to go up, it's extremely difficult to make up for a poor start, hardly anybody ever does it, and most teams who go up average about 2 points in their first 10 games.
In short, that hopeless arse Fistface has buggered us for another season.
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Interesting stats there. Bit concerning as well. Every team and season is different of course but we do seem to be pretty fucked already which is a shame.
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This season is looking like there's less between the teams than in current years, but even so, it's not rocket science to see that playing well and getting lots of points on the board early on gives you a much better chance of going up. As I said, both Fulham and Bournmeouth had unbelievable runs at some point. Bournmeouth had one period where they won 14 out of 16 league games, then ended the season winning 9 and drawing 3 of their final 12. As we saw, Fulham finished the second half of last season with one lass in 24 games. We're just not capable of that sort of form and consistency under Bruce.
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I'm sure I was told last season that dropping points at this stage didn't matter.
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It's that old adage about how you can't win a title race this early, but you can sure as hell lose one.
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It's only the points you win or lose at the business end of the season that make a difference, was the thinking.
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I thought it'd be interesting to see of the three teams who have been promoted in the last few years, where each team has been after 10 games, and how many points they have. Teams with an * going up via the play offs.
2017/18
Wolves - 4th 20 pts
Cardiff - 1st 23 pts
Fulham* - 10th 15 pts
2016/17
Newcastle - 3rd 19 pts
Brighton - 4th 18 pts
Huddersfield* - 1st 22 pts
2015/16
Burnley - 6th 18pts
Middlesbrough - 2nd 20 pts
Hull* - 5th 18 pts
2014/15
Bournemouth - 15th 12 pts
Watford - 3rd - 20 pts
Norwich* - 1st 20 pts
2013/14
Leicester - 3rd 23 pts
Burnley - 1st 23 pts
QPR* - 2nd 23 pts (after 9 games)
So in 5 years with 15 teams going up, only two teams have ever been outside of the top 6 this at this stage of the season, and only once has a team going up automatically having been outside the top 6 at this stage. Both of the teams, Fulham and Bournemouth, went on unbelievable unbeaten runs to make up for a poor start. The clear and obvious stat is that to go up, it's extremely difficult to make up for a poor start, hardly anybody ever does it, and most teams who go up average about 2 points in their first 10 games.
In short, that hopeless arse Fistface has buggered us for another season.
This simple analysis ought to be sent to the CEO immediately; it’s the compelling argument for making a change now.
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I thought it'd be interesting to see of the three teams who have been promoted in the last few years, where each team has been after 10 games, and how many points they have. Teams with an * going up via the play offs.
2017/18
Wolves - 4th 20 pts
Cardiff - 1st 23 pts
Fulham* - 10th 15 pts
2016/17
Newcastle - 3rd 19 pts
Brighton - 4th 18 pts
Huddersfield* - 1st 22 pts
2015/16
Burnley - 6th 18pts
Middlesbrough - 2nd 20 pts
Hull* - 5th 18 pts
2014/15
Bournemouth - 15th 12 pts
Watford - 3rd - 20 pts
Norwich* - 1st 20 pts
2013/14
Leicester - 3rd 23 pts
Burnley - 1st 23 pts
QPR* - 2nd 23 pts (after 9 games)
So in 5 years with 15 teams going up, only two teams have ever been outside of the top 6 this at this stage of the season, and only once has a team going up automatically having been outside the top 6 at this stage. Both of the teams, Fulham and Bournemouth, went on unbelievable unbeaten runs to make up for a poor start. The clear and obvious stat is that to go up, it's extremely difficult to make up for a poor start, hardly anybody ever does it, and most teams who go up average about 2 points in their first 10 games.
In short, that hopeless arse Fistface has buggered us for another season.
Good grief that is damning!
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I thought it'd be interesting to see of the three teams who have been promoted in the last few years, where each team has been after 10 games, and how many points they have. Teams with an * going up via the play offs.
2017/18
Wolves - 4th 20 pts
Cardiff - 1st 23 pts
Fulham* - 10th 15 pts
2016/17
Newcastle - 3rd 19 pts
Brighton - 4th 18 pts
Huddersfield* - 1st 22 pts
2015/16
Burnley - 6th 18pts
Middlesbrough - 2nd 20 pts
Hull* - 5th 18 pts
2014/15
Bournemouth - 15th 12 pts
Watford - 3rd - 20 pts
Norwich* - 1st 20 pts
2013/14
Leicester - 3rd 23 pts
Burnley - 1st 23 pts
QPR* - 2nd 23 pts (after 9 games)
So in 5 years with 15 teams going up, only two teams have ever been outside of the top 6 this at this stage of the season, and only once has a team going up automatically having been outside the top 6 at this stage. Both of the teams, Fulham and Bournemouth, went on unbelievable unbeaten runs to make up for a poor start. The clear and obvious stat is that to go up, it's extremely difficult to make up for a poor start, hardly anybody ever does it, and most teams who go up average about 2 points in their first 10 games.
In short, that hopeless arse Fistface has buggered us for another season.
Excellent research which should lead to his sacking.
The saving grace is that very good teams don't have awful starts so don't feature as exceptions.We do because of Bruce.Automatic is still achievable,provided we get rid pretty quickly.
It's a bit like the few test teams who got 300 plus to win.260-5 doesn't feature.
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We've swung lowly, no question. And this against the low-lying fruit in the division.
Prognosis: dismal in the absence of radical surgery.
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We've swung lowly, no question. And this against the low-lying fruit in the division.
Prognosis: dismal in the absence of radical surgery.
That's where the frustration sets in. Ipswich and Reading in particular. Against 10 men and conceding in the last minute.
The second half of the November and December on paper looks like a very tricky period. We will concede many goals in that period unless we sort out our defence..
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Looking at the fixtures pre season and despite all the usual vagaries of our summer and you’ll never win all your games I was fully expecting to hit 8 wins from the first 12 looking at the opposition. I realise football is played on grass not paper but can anyone seriously argue that with the right preparation, tactical approach and recruitment that wasn’t achievable? The fact we’ve got nowhere near it, we’re not even “there or thereabouts”, is utterly damning of Bruce and his “coaching” set up. As others have said it’s going to take a Fulham style run with a new coach to get anywhere near the top 2 now.
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...I realise football is played on grass...
Ours isn't.
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...I realise football is played on grass...
Ours isn't.
I’d hesitate to call it football....
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That's where the frustration sets in. Ipswich and Reading in particular. Against 10 men and conceding in the last minute.
And that is the point that Bruce pathetically overlooks. If we looked at the start of the season it really is not inconceivable that we should be 20+ points on the board considering the fixtures we opened with.
That's Wor championship or not - we should be significantly better off than we are - and that should be the bullet right now
Fair play to Xia he stood no messing after 11 crap games / results he pulled the plug - lets hope he still has some influence
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It is depressing that we are struggling as much as we did in our first season down here, and we haven't played anyone any good yet.
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...I realise football is played on grass...
Ours isn't.
I’d hesitate to call it football....
Trades description act?
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I thought it'd be interesting to see of the three teams who have been promoted in the last few years, where each team has been after 10 games, and how many points they have. Teams with an * going up via the play offs.
2017/18
Wolves - 4th 20 pts
Cardiff - 1st 23 pts
Fulham* - 10th 15 pts
2016/17
Newcastle - 3rd 19 pts
Brighton - 4th 18 pts
Huddersfield* - 1st 22 pts
2015/16
Burnley - 6th 18pts
Middlesbrough - 2nd 20 pts
Hull* - 5th 18 pts
2014/15
Bournemouth - 15th 12 pts
Watford - 3rd - 20 pts
Norwich* - 1st 20 pts
2013/14
Leicester - 3rd 23 pts
Burnley - 1st 23 pts
QPR* - 2nd 23 pts (after 9 games)
So in 5 years with 15 teams going up, only two teams have ever been outside of the top 6 this at this stage of the season, and only once has a team going up automatically having been outside the top 6 at this stage. Both of the teams, Fulham and Bournemouth, went on unbelievable unbeaten runs to make up for a poor start. The clear and obvious stat is that to go up, it's extremely difficult to make up for a poor start, hardly anybody ever does it, and most teams who go up average about 2 points in their first 10 games.
In short, that hopeless arse Fistface has buggered us for another season.
Very very interesting reading and actually it's noted that unless a massive run is put together then the promo will not occur.
Bruce seems convinced it will happen given time.
Thanks for putting those details up !
Though I will add something about Burnley 2016
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Burnley were 5th on Boxing Day 8 points behind the automatic promotion places. A 23 match unbeaten run saw them win the league .
That is title winning form that is what needed that is what bruce has to do
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He can't and he won't get the chance to.
Change now, give a us the chance to let slip on this shithouse of a league.
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I think Rissos stats are revealing, the important thing is momentum and a few teams will start to get thier act together and go on long winning runs.
With an unsettled and unbalanced side with a basket case of a manager the chances of us getting that momentum is extremely unlikely.
Yep another season down here I am afraid.
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I thought it'd be interesting to see of the three teams who have been promoted in the last few years, where each team has been after 10 games, and how many points they have. Teams with an * going up via the play offs.
2017/18
Wolves - 4th 20 pts
Cardiff - 1st 23 pts
Fulham* - 10th 15 pts
2016/17
Newcastle - 3rd 19 pts
Brighton - 4th 18 pts
Huddersfield* - 1st 22 pts
2015/16
Burnley - 6th 18pts
Middlesbrough - 2nd 20 pts
Hull* - 5th 18 pts
2014/15
Bournemouth - 15th 12 pts
Watford - 3rd - 20 pts
Norwich* - 1st 20 pts
2013/14
Leicester - 3rd 23 pts
Burnley - 1st 23 pts
QPR* - 2nd 23 pts (after 9 games)
So in 5 years with 15 teams going up, only two teams have ever been outside of the top 6 this at this stage of the season, and only once has a team going up automatically having been outside the top 6 at this stage. Both of the teams, Fulham and Bournemouth, went on unbelievable unbeaten runs to make up for a poor start. The clear and obvious stat is that to go up, it's extremely difficult to make up for a poor start, hardly anybody ever does it, and most teams who go up average about 2 points in their first 10 games.
In short, that hopeless arse Fistface has buggered us for another season.
We need to go on a really good run to go up then Risso.
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After 11 matches:
Season 17/18
7 th place 5 points off top 1pt off play-off
1 Cardiff City 24
2 Wolves 23
3 Sheffield United 21
4 Bristol City 20
5 Leeds United 20
6 Preston North End 20
7 Aston Villa 19
Season 18/19
13th place 7 pts off top 2 points off play offs
Season 18/19
1 Leeds 22
2 Middlesbrough 22
3 Sheff Utd 22
4 West Brom 21
5Norwich 18
6 Brentford 17
7 Swansea 17
8 Derby 17
9 Wigan 17
10 Bristol City 16
11 NForest 16
12 Sheff Wed 16
13 Aston Villa 15
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Forgot to update this for a while. In summary, we are another three points down due the QPR loss. Chance to gain next week as we lost at Derby last season.
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Would be happy with a point at Derby.
Looking at the table and the leader is Norwich with 30 points after 16. Of course a team could suddenly go on a 5-10 match winning run but not really sure you'll need two points a game ratio for automatic promotion this year so frustrating we're still a fair way off the pace.
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Any chance of a 'footyskillz' update? ;)
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Way to hurt my feelings. 😢
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If we can be near the play offs at the turn of the year we have a chance.
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So can we still do this?
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Of course we can. And we will.
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Way to hurt my feelings. 😢
;D
If footyskillz had posted his first, I would be asking for your update, as a comparison. Honest. 😂
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9 points off top place exactly same as last season after 16 matches difference being placed in play offs.
17/18
6th points 26
7 points off 2nd Sheff united 33
9 points off 1st Wolves 35
18/19
14th. points 21
5 points off play offs
9 points of automatic and top spot . Norwich and Leeds 30 points.
Thank you and good morning.
Any chance of a 'footyskillz' update? ;)
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The problem as I see it is that we've got to rely on 4 of the top 5 teams going through bad phases if we are to reach automatic. It's not impossible but it's very difficult. Top 6 should be attainable but I fear we've left ourselves with just too much to do for automatic.
A draw on Saturday and we could be 11 points off.
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The problem as I see it is that we've got to rely on 4 of the top 5 teams going through bad phases if we are to reach automatic. It's not impossible but it's very difficult. Top 6 should be attainable but I fear we've left ourselves with just too much to do for automatic.
A draw on Saturday and we could be 11 points off.
Everyone goes through at least one bad phase.
A win and we could be 6 points off.
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We've got to start reeling in the decent teams above us. Beat Derby and we'll be 4 points behind them. Lose, and we'll be 10 points off. That'd be 3 losses in 4 games, and would mean that we'd have very little chance of pulling that back I reckon.
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The problem as I see it is that we've got to rely on 4 of the top 5 teams going through bad phases if we are to reach automatic. It's not impossible but it's very difficult. Top 6 should be attainable but I fear we've left ourselves with just too much to do for automatic.
A draw on Saturday and we could be 11 points off.
Everyone goes through at least one bad phase.
A win and we could be 6 points off.
The problem is, we can't afford one between now and the end of the season. As I said, it's not impossible for top 2 but it is extremely difficult from the position we're currently in.
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What concerns me is the next 7 games running up to Christmas are a lot harder, on paper, than those 7 games we had last season. On the plus side Bruce has been replaced by Dean Smith.
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The problem as I see it is that we've got to rely on 4 of the top 5 teams going through bad phases if we are to reach automatic. It's not impossible but it's very difficult. Top 6 should be attainable but I fear we've left ourselves with just too much to do for automatic.
A draw on Saturday and we could be 11 points off.
We've got to play most of them twice, if we can take 4 or 6 points from a few of them we put ourselves right back amongst it, the next 7-8 games are really important in that regard. Get them right and we go into the new year in a really strong position.
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The problem as I see it is that we've got to rely on 4 of the top 5 teams going through bad phases if we are to reach automatic. It's not impossible but it's very difficult. Top 6 should be attainable but I fear we've left ourselves with just too much to do for automatic.
A draw on Saturday and we could be 11 points off.
We've got to play most of them twice, if we can take 4 or 6 points from a few of them we put ourselves right back amongst it, the next 7-8 games are really important in that regard. Get them right and we go into the new year in a really strong position.
Yes, I agree.
I'll be happy going into the new year no further behind than we are now. Anything else is a bonus. We have drawn far too many games since we've been down here - Hopefully we'll be turning a lot of those draws into wins under Smith. Whether we've left it too late this season remains to be seen.
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Obviously if we beat the teams aboveus it a major help in gaining places and a positive challenging position.
It also means we deserve to be where we are come the run of games up to Swansea .
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We simply have to start picking up wins against decent sides, and away from home. Draws are not going to get us top two, after over a third of the season gone and finding ourselves in 14th place.
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In a league where literally everyone can beat anyone then to make progress up the table you really need to put together runs like (holds back the rising vomit) the Dog shit did in not losing in last 11 before Saturday.
If you take previous seasons the likes of Wolves and Newcastle before them went on runs of 5,6,7,8 games not only unbeaten but consecutive wins - we need to find that sort of consistent form and I do not think it is beyond us to be honest
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In a league where literally everyone can beat anyone then to make progress up the table you really need to put together runs like (holds back the rising vomit) the Dog shit did in not losing in last 11 before Saturday.
If you take previous seasons the likes of Wolves and Newcastle before them went on runs of 5,6,7,8 games not only unbeaten but consecutive wins - we need to find that sort of consistent form and I do not think it is beyond us to be honest
I agree, I think that should come after Christmas, we've got a very soft run of games through January and with a few additions we should be well capable of making a real push. That's why getting into the top 8-10 and within touching distance of the playoffs would be so good to have a better platform to go from. If we're within 5-6 of the top 2 by Christmas it would be a massive bonus to our chances of pushing on.
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First points gained for what seems like ages. We have already bettered last season's points total against Derby.
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7 points off 2nd.
Interestingly, 2nd, 3rd, 4th & 5th have only won 2 each from their last 6 games.
I feel slightly more optimistic after yesterday. 7 points isn't a great amount at the start of November. Difficult run of fixtures or not, I'm beginning to think we may reuce this gap further by the new year.
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If (IF) we can come through the next six games with, say, four wins then I think we'll be close to being favourites to go up.
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19/1 on betfair this morning to finish top.
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Can't wait to kill the canaries at VP, they make me sick.
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We went on long unbeaten runs under that duffer Bruce only to follow them with long winless runs. Cut out the latter and we really will be there or thereabouts...
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You could argue that we are in a considerably worse position than we were at this stage last year due to the fact that we are 9 behind leaders where the Leader’s this season have 5 fewer points but there is hope that we will not have terrible runs after good results which ruined auto pro for us.
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We are now in a far stronger position than in previous seasons. That charlatan of a manger who was gladly sacked can't hold a candle to the bloke who's in charge now. Slowly but surely we will improve and compete and at least look fit enough to be any team in this division. This season is wide open but if you have good or better players playing at there max you will succeed.
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I'm not a betting man but I honestly think it's worth an each way bet on us winning the damn thing. No-one's running away with it really and given that we should strengthen in January, I think we could easily go on a run like we did last season and the year before.
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Them lot up the road will be feeling very confident after a 4-1 win against dirty Leeds. Leeds are still favourites with the bookies and were 20-1. Odd.
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Can't wait to kill the canaries at VP, they make me sick.
Last day of the season. Could be tasty.
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(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/Ds2uZ-kW0AE3bO5.jpg:large)
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Next 5 games:
Forest (H)
Boro (A)
Baggies (A)
Stoke (H)
Leeds (H)
4 of those 5 against teams above us with only 9 points separating us from top and 4 points off a playoff spot. We are very confident right now. Other teams will know that. We can come out of this very much in the hunt for an automatic spot.
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Reading just missed an injury time penalty against Leeds - annoying
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Norwich and Boro dropping points tonight.
Looking like a low total needed for 2nd this year, you won't be needing 90 points + anyway.
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Next 5 games:
Forest (H)
Boro (A)
Baggies (A)
Stoke (H)
Leeds (H)
4 of those 5 against teams above us with only 9 points separating us from top and 4 points off a playoff spot. We are very confident right now. Other teams will know that. We can come out of this very much in the hunt for an automatic spot.
Unlikely I know, but win all of those and we are in the top 2. Thing is I trust Dean to mix things up at the right time not because the lads are tired.
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At the current PPG rate Leeds would be second with 87. Majority of seasons that's enough for second.
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At the current PPG rate Leeds would be second with 87. Majority of seasons that's enough for second.
Our last two games are Leeds away and Norwich at home!
Seems written to me, about time we had a cliff hanger end to a league season anyway.
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Technically, a point gained yesterday, even if it didn't feel like it.
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Second place is good enough and failing that we're easily good enough to get in the play-offs and win them. 10 points behind Leeds now but we have to play them twice, so it's more than possible to pull them back a bit. Luck has not exactly been with us recently - Reading missing a pen at Leeds, Leeds getting a rather fortunate pen yesterday, Norwich scraping a win in injury time and Albion robbing us of 2 points in injury time. And we've dropped points through unforced defensive errors as well at Norwich, QPR and against Forest. Yet we've still taken 14 out of 18 in our last 6. If/when our luck turns, and we get a better keeper and fullbacks, I think we could go on a very strong run after New year where the run of fixtures is not that daunting. If we just miss out we can thank Bruce for all those dropped points in very winnable games. The useless twat.
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AFTER 24 matches on Boxing Day :
2017: W10 D8 L6 F32 A24 GD 8. 38pts
2018: W9 D9 L6 F46 A37 GD 9. 36pts
Boxing day 2017 after 24 matches :
8th place 38 points
17 points off top spot
9 points from automatic place
3 points from playoffs
1 Wolverhampton
55pts
2 Bristol City
47pts
3 Cardiff City
47pts
4 Derby County
45pts
5 Leeds United
42pts
6 Sheffield United
41pts
7 Middlesbrough
38pts
8 Aston Villa 38pts
Boxing Day 2018 after 24 matches:
9th place 36 points
15 points from top spot
12 points from automatic
3 points from play offs
1 Leeds United 51pts
2 Norwich City 48pts
3 WBA 45pts
4 Sheffield United 41pts
5 Middlesbrough 39pts
6 Derby County 39pts
7 Birmingham City 37pts
8 QPR 37pts
9 Aston Villa 36pts
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I thought it'd be interesting to see of the three teams who have been promoted in the last few years, where each team has been after 10 games, and how many points they have. Teams with an * going up via the play offs.
2017/18
Wolves - 4th 20 pts
Cardiff - 1st 23 pts
Fulham* - 10th 15 pts
2016/17
Newcastle - 3rd 19 pts
Brighton - 4th 18 pts
Huddersfield* - 1st 22 pts
2015/16
Burnley - 6th 18pts
Middlesbrough - 2nd 20 pts
Hull* - 5th 18 pts
2014/15
Bournemouth - 15th 12 pts
Watford - 3rd - 20 pts
Norwich* - 1st 20 pts
2013/14
Leicester - 3rd 23 pts
Burnley - 1st 23 pts
QPR* - 2nd 23 pts (after 9 games)
So in 5 years with 15 teams going up, only two teams have ever been outside of the top 6 this at this stage of the season, and only once has a team going up automatically having been outside the top 6 at this stage. Both of the teams, Fulham and Bournemouth, went on unbelievable unbeaten runs to make up for a poor start. The clear and obvious stat is that to go up, it's extremely difficult to make up for a poor start, hardly anybody ever does it, and most teams who go up average about 2 points in their first 10 games.
In short, that hopeless arse Fistface has buggered us for another season.
Any chance of one of these soon or after New year's Day match next week.
Interesting reading and wondered on teams at half way point?!
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There’s lies, damn lies and statistics. 66 points to play for, we can drop 9 and surely go up on 93points losing to Small, Leeds plus one other away ?
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Lose to Small Heath? Trololololol
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Any chance of an update, cd/footyskillz?
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Had forgotten all about it, sorry. Maybe selective memory... will have a go tomorrow, will likely make depressing reading!
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Updated OP. Down to an estimated position of ninth.
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Chance to claw to back on last season though.
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Agreed. Next five games are Hull (h), Ipswich (h), Reading (a), Sheff Utd (h) and Brentford (a). We only managed five points from the equivalent games last season.
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We're 14 points down on like for like results from last season!?
Christ. I didn't think it was as bad as that!
Any better on your's, footyskillz?
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Maximum 10 point swing available then from the next 5.
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Which would bring us to the giddy heights of minus four! 😂
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But...would probably have us 4th! It's a funny old game ain't it.
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But...would probably have us 4th! It's a funny old game ain't it.
Is that mathematically possible, with every other team above us also having to play and, at least, draw the odd game?
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Prediction Police are here. Act casual.
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Well? Is what you said possible, or a genuine mistake of just adding points on to us and forgetting others have to, at some point during that period, add points to their totals?
I'm genuinely interested.
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Good lord.
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I'm sorry CD for trying to engage in a bit of Back and forth.
Seeing as Villa75's gate is locked and that I have no desire to run through the fields if we were to get 15 out the next 5 then we'd have 53.
Based on points per game current averages we'd not be 4th, as the stripes would have 56, Boro 55 and therefore 6th, 2 ahead of Derby.
I wasn't making a prediction or being scientific or anything particularly serious. But there we go.
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The number of permutations involved in working that out is obscene but simply based on average points per game if we won the next 5 I think 6th and 2-3 points off 4th is the most likely outcome.
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Thanks guys. That's interesting.
Also, out of interest, does anyone know the last time we won 5 league games on the trot?
Edit.
Found it. It was last January
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Thanks guys. That's interesting.
Also, out of interest, does anyone know the last time we won 5 league games on the trot?
Edit.
Found it. It was last January
And it was 7 consecutive wins
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We're 14 points down on like for like results from last season!?
Christ. I didn't think it was as bad as that!
Any better on your's, footyskillz?
Well :( as were in play offs
4 point cushion from dropping out
Oh and last season 5 points from 2nd place where this season we are 5 points off play offs
2017/18
Games:27
Position:4th
Points: 47
Play offs : in the play off places ! 4point gap to 7th
Promotion place: 5 points off
Top spot: 15 points off
2018/19
Games:27
Position:12th
Please: 38
Play offs : 5 points off
Promotion place: 12points off
Top spot: 16 points off
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Updated after Hull and Ipswich. No gain or loss since the last update.
We only took one point from the equivalent of our next three games last year, so we have a chance to make up some of our deficit.
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If we can end strongly, which we didn't last season then we have a chance - but that would need Grealish and Tuanzebe fit and the new players to settle in fast - so not the highest probability then.
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Aston Villa after 29 matches
2018-2019 W10 D12 L7 F53 A46 42pts
2017-2018 W15 D8 L6 F43 A25 53pts
11 points less than last season
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god look at the goals against total. Horrendous. We were always going to struggle with the defence Bruce was planning to use. I'd say in hindsight, but it was fucking obvious to most of us before we kicked a ball,
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Only 2 clubs have scored more goals than us(Norwich and WBA) but only 2 sides have conceded more!
On FootyStats there is an an index named BTTS:
BTTS : List of teams with the highest number of matches where both teams scored. Stats from team's Domestic League runs only.
In this category we are 2nd with 72% behind WBA(75%).
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god look at the goals against total. Horrendous. We were always going to struggle with the defence Bruce was planning to use. I'd say in hindsight, but it was fucking obvious to most of us before we kicked a ball,
Chester`s form seemed to drop off a cliff since we lost Johnson and Terry from the back
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god look at the goals against total. Horrendous. We were always going to struggle with the defence Bruce was planning to use. I'd say in hindsight, but it was fucking obvious to most of us before we kicked a ball,
Chester`s form seemed to drop off a cliff since we lost Johnson and Terry from the back
Also whilst playing with an injury (for most of the season) along with new goal keepers lacking confidence (and ability) as well as 3 right backs playing along a back 4.
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Point gained today, what a time to be alive!
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Currently if we average the same points per game as we have now, until the end of the season, we'll have 66 points. That would be 12th in last years final table.
If we average 2 points per remaining game, 75 points and just into the play offs.
3 points per game, unlikely I know, but we can dream, and its 91 points and we do a Cardiff and go up automatically.
Nurse, nurse get me some more medication!!!!
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Currently if we average the same points per game as we have now, until the end of the season, we'll have 66 points. That would be 12th in last years final table.
If we average 2 points per remaining game, 75 points and just into the play offs.
3 points per game, unlikely I know, but we can dream, and its 91 points and we do a Cardiff and go up automatically.
Nurse, nurse get me some more medication!!!!
At a guess I think a few points less than 75 will be good enough for 6th this season, 72-73 would be my guess based on how the league is playing out.
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Play-offs are becoming remote. Teams above also have a game in hand. The defence left by Bruce has basically screwed us. Far too many goals conceded.
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...and a midfield full of shite.
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Current points per game until the end of the season, would see us with 61 points. Another year in the Championship "Paradise" then.
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I think we can put the Swingometer to bed for another season!
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We need to win on Saturday, Jack gets through unscathed and then go hell for leather with McGinn back and on a fully changed battery.
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Sorry T V,but as Villa Lew said, we can put the Swingometer to bed for another season.
We have 12 games, yes just 12 games left in the season, unless we somehow manage to get in the playoffs.
So 12 wins would give us 81 points.
Our current points per game would give us 61 points.
Even at an average of 2 points per game, we would only finish on 69 points, which I very much doubt would get us in the playoffs.
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I don't think we should totally give up on the play offs but it is looking like it might be best if we have a proper crack at it next season.
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Win the next two and see where we are.
First choice midfield will be available for the Noses, let's see if we cannot recapture some form and who knows.
If we come up short, some momentum into the summer won't go a miss.
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I'd forgotten about this. Have been off work so will update the OP next week after the Derby game.
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After yesterday's majesty we once more dare to dream again like a lovesick fool who receives a smile from the one that he wants.
Do we need to "do a John Gregory" and win 9 out of our last 11 now to have any hope of 6th place as DW suggests in his latest Press-punned piece? I can't see that happening but would 7 work?
Norwich and Leeds getting promoted early would probably be best for us so that our last two games have less intensity from the opposition which a lot of their success this season has been based on.
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As things stand, if the top 6 all carry on accumulating points at the current rate 6th place would be Bristol City on 73-74 points. That would mean we'd need 26 points from the 33 available and possibly to improve our goal difference compared to them (we're both +8 currently). that makes 8 wins the absolute minimum requirement. To start with winning the next 3 (blues, forest and boro) would be massive because they're all '6 pointers'. Get those and then add a win over Bristol City in April and, along with another couple of wins, we'd be right back up there going into Easter.
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Updated. No change after the latest lot of matches as the loss of points against West Brom was cancelled out by gains against Stoke and Derby. We are on course to miss the playoffs by five points. Last year we drew at Small Heath, won at Forest and drew at home to Boro. So if we win the next three we are on course for the top six.
I'll believe it when I see it.
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Two points gained. The top six is just about conceivable. COYVB.
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Current points per game until the end of the season, would see us with 61 points. Another year in the Championship "Paradise" then.
Now our current points per game would leave us on 69 points.
If we remain on our winning run we'll have 81 points.
Remaining fixtures;
March 30th v Blackburn (h)
April 6th v Bruceball FC (a)
April 10th v Rotherham (a)
April 13th v Brizzle (h)
April 19th v Bolton (a)
April 22nd v Millwall (h)
April 27th v Leeds (a)
May 5th v Norwich (h)
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Nobody make predictions. The last two threads predicting results of games ended really badly.
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Nobody make predictions. The last two threads predicting results of games ended really badly.
Yep I won’t be doing one for April!!
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The Swing-o-Meter now predicts us to finish top six. Heady days...
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I'm sticking to the target of 75 points so 6 more wins but by beating teams around us we've made things look much neater, if we can repeat that trick against Bristol City and Sheffield Wednesday in the next few weeks then that'd be great and might see that points target come down a little, especially if Derby, Boro and Bristol City carry on struggling for a few more weeks.
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Lose at Leeds, draw with Norwich, Wednesday and win the rest (five). Should do it.
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Aston Villa after 38 matches
12 points less than last season
2018-2019 57
2017-2018 69
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But a better team this season when in-form.
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Current points per game would give us 71 points.
5 games ago our points per game would have left us with 61 points.
Too much to ask for 81 points at the end of the season??
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Well how's the points swing o meter looking now villa faithful!!!?
Noticed in all excitement there been no update but what a roll!
Btw here my contribution on last season points and stats comparison maybe
7 points down from 17/18 but the football and the 8 winning is more than something else and more exhilarating performances to compare than last season !
Aston Villa 42 matches
11 more goals scored
18 more goals conceded
4 less matches won
5 more matches drawn
1 less defeat
2017-2018 / 2018-19
won 22 /won 18
draw 10/ draw 15
lost10/9
Goals 66/77
Conceded 40/58
Pts 76/ 69
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As things stand, if the top 6 all carry on accumulating points at the current rate 6th place would be Bristol City on 73-74 points. That would mean we'd need 26 points from the 33 available and possibly to improve our goal difference compared to them (we're both +8 currently). that makes 8 wins the absolute minimum requirement. To start with winning the next 3 (blues, forest and boro) would be massive because they're all '6 pointers'. Get those and then add a win over Bristol City in April and, along with another couple of wins, we'd be right back up there going into Easter.
Absolutely superb awareness to situation ! 8 wins no worries ?! (Apart from that Wednesday match all deserved!)
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Well how's the points swing o meter looking now villa faithful!!!?
Sorry, forgot. Will do it in now...
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We haven't actually "gained" any points since the last update, as we won all the equivalent games last year, too.
However, we have some wriggle-room now as we only got one point from Bolton away and Millwall at home last season... good chance to gain some points.
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We haven't actually "gained" any points since the last update, as we won all the equivalent games last year, too.
However, we have some wriggle-room now as we only got one point from Bolton away and Millwall at home last season... good chance to gain some points.
Thanks!
Funny that word or words? Wriggle room !
It actually makes me feel uncomfortable! Though the meaning is to say we have some comfort space . The equivalent would be what those lesser clubs would say 'its a free hit' when they play they almighty Dean Smith Aston villa.
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As things stand, if the top 6 all carry on accumulating points at the current rate 6th place would be Bristol City on 73-74 points. That would mean we'd need 26 points from the 33 available and possibly to improve our goal difference compared to them (we're both +8 currently). that makes 8 wins the absolute minimum requirement. To start with winning the next 3 (blues, forest and boro) would be massive because they're all '6 pointers'. Get those and then add a win over Bristol City in April and, along with another couple of wins, we'd be right back up there going into Easter.
Absolutely superb awareness to situation ! 8 wins no worries ?! (Apart from that Wednesday match all deserved!)
I posted that after the Derby game so 1 more meets my minimum for us to make the playoffs and I'll stand by that. Beat Bolton and we've got 1 foot in the play offs, follow that with a win against Millwall and we'll be in with 2 games to go, which would be a truly amazing turnaround from where we were before the Derby game.
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I doth my cap ! Very insightful and good understanding of situation!
You totally nailed it
Great analyst
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Updated and I'm not even at work, you lucky people!
Three points gained today. Well, yesterday, I suppose.