Championship 2018-2019

[Brassneck]

Well it looks like the chase for 4th place could be on with Baggies imploding in their last 2 games vs Millwall and Bristol.

Could the chase for 4th be on with their remaining fixtures:

Preston (H)
Hull (H)
Reading (A)
Rotherham (H)
Derby (A)

They have some tricky fixtures there particularly against Preston and Derby, but Reading and Rotherham won't be push overs given their fight to stay up.

I was wondering how big an advantage playing at home in the 2nd leg is.

Away goals don't count in the play offs so the only real advantage that I can see is that the team who are at home in the 2nd leg will have the home crowd with them if it goes to ET and pens.

Other than that, it doesn't make a lot of difference as far as I'm concerned.  With that in mind, I see no point in killing ourselves for 4th place if we have already qualified for 5th or 6th.

[KRS]

I agree Brassneck. The only thing that matters is that we secure a playoff spot...preferably not 6th if possible as I'd rather we play Baggies in the semis. Finishing 4th would only give us bragging rights and the bonus of home advantage in the second leg.

[footyskillz]

Leeds beat Sheffield Wednesday and stay in 2nd.
Sheffield United bottling like they did at villa Park !
Only drawing 1-1 at home to Millwall and they had a player sent off. Milwall score in 90 odd mins 
Fair play to that Harris who is boss milwall he gives them something belief in staying up.
I feel that Sheffield Wednesday play off hopes another dent

Derby won 4-0 against a Bolton's beleaguers.
Boro won 1-0
WBA easy win 4-1 Preston who are now tailing off.
(Oh and lambo Ipswich are relegated)
   
1. Norwich 85
2.Leeds 82   
3.Sheff Utd 79
4.West Brom73   
5.Aston Villa69
6.Bristol City65   
--------------------------
7.Middlesbrough 64
8.Derby 63
9.Hull 60   
10.Sheff Wed 59

[footyskillz]

Next 2 matches

April 19 Good Friday Bolton v Aston Villa

West Brom v Hull
Bristol City v Reading
Birmingham v Derby
Middlesbrough v Stoke
Forest v Sheffield Utd
Preston v Ipswich


April 22 Easter Mon :Aston Villa v Millwall

Reading v WBA
Sheff Wed v Bristol City
Derby v QPR
Nottm Forest v Middlesbrough
Hull   v Sheff Utd
Wigan v Preston

[Steve67]

Some tough fixtures for clubs around us.  Blues v Derby and Wednesday v Bristol City stand out.  Boro's two games aren't easy either.

Derby have to play Bristol City too I believe? Good.  Again though, we have to take care of our own business.

[Risso]

Norwich will almost certainly be promoted by the time we play them, so they should be on the proverbial beach, and with all due respect I can't see Bolton putting up much resistance.

[olaftab]

Bugger. Leeds win today rules out automatic for us

[PeterWithesShin]

Today has seen any realistic chance of the top 6 end for Forest, Hull, Sheff Weds and Preston.

And then there were 4.

[Ad@m]

And with our goal difference two wins from the last four guarantees the playoffs.

[footyskillz]

Today has seen any realistic chance of the top 6 end for Forest, Hull, Sheff Weds and Preston.

And then there were 4.

2 quick turnaround of matches could sway things again.
I could not cast out till after these matches.but I could for 5th .
The reason being for 6th place teams still play each other and can take points means Hull , and at a push Wednesday and Preston could sneak in.
I  see the 5th between Derby Bristol Boro and Villa. And I think our position is very nice looking ahead now rather than behind too much!
I can revise and join you in the less teams battling for playoffs 5th and 6th come Easter Monday.

[villan from luton]

Today has seen any realistic chance of the top 6 end for Forest, Hull, Sheff Weds and Preston.

And then there were 4.

2 quick turnaround of matches could sway things again.
I could not cast out till after these matches.but I could for 5th .
The reason being for 6th place teams still play each other and can take points means Hull , and at a push Wednesday and Preston could sneak in.
I  see the 5th between Derby Bristol Boro and Villa. And I think our position is very nice looking ahead now rather than behind too much!
I can revise and join you in the less teams battling for playoffs 5th and 6th come Easter Monday.

That is a bold statement re 5th position lol

[footyskillz]

Bookmakers indication
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS BEST ODDS
Boro 4/9
Aston villa 5/4
Derby 3/1
Bristol City 10/3
Preston 7/2
Forest 14/1
Sheffield Wednesday 18/1
Hull 80/1

Now I hope those inclined invested !
At odds against .

Current odds To Make play offs
Aston Villa 1/25
Bristol City 4/7
Middlesboro 9/4
Derby 5/2
Hull 40/1
Wednesday 50/1
Preston 300/1
Forest 365/1

So at this moment Preston and Forest are really discounted . And perhaps could even be dismissed before the matches happen over easter weekend according to bookies.

You can actually get best odds of 150/1 Hull and 250/1 Sheffield Wednesday to make play offs. And could one of these sneak in at 6th place with a run?

To not finish in top 6
Villa 9/1 
Bristol city 6/5
Middlesboro 2/7
Derby 1/3

And Villa are 9/4 to be promoted  and that's over double money!

[footyskillz]

Aston Villa compared to championship average
Points per game     1.64 villa 1.36 championship
Goals scored per game  1.83 villa    1.34 championship
Goals conceded per game  1.38 villa  1.34 championship

Home
Aston Villa v League average
Points per game     1.81 v 1.60
Goals scored per game  2.29 v 1.52
Goals conceded per game  1.62 v 1.16

Away
Aston Villa v League average
Points per game     1.48 v 1.11
Goals scored per game  1.38 v 1.16
Goals conceded per game  1.14 v 1.52

[footyskillz]

Going into 2 matches over Easter the current form of championship teams:

Championship Form
1   Aston Villa WWWWWW
2   Norwich WWWWWD
3   Leeds WLWLWW
4   WBA WWWLLW
5   Bristol City DWWDWL
6   Sheff Utd WWLWDD
7   Hull City   LDWWWL
8   Sheffield Wed WWDLWL
9   Blackburn WLLLWW
10   Swansea LLWWWL
11   Derby County DDWDLW
12   Reading   LDWLDW
13   Millwall LWLWDD
14   Rotherham WLLWLD
15   Stoke City DDDWLD
16   Middlesbrough LLLLWW
17   Ipswich Town DDLWLD
18   Preston WWLLLL
19   QPR   LDLLDW
20   Brentford LDLDWL
21   Birmingham LLLWDD
22   Wigan  LLWDDL
23   Nottingham Forest LDWLLL
24   Bolton Wanderers LLWLLL

[Behind Bluenose Lines]

Bugger. Leeds win today rules out automatic for us

I know.
Realistically, it wouldn't have happened anyway. We had too much ground to make up once Jack came back. If only he'd come back before he did!