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You have to factor dropping points in along the way, so with the 8 fixtures remaining I think 14-15pts (out of a possible 24pts) would be a realistic minimal target. The real question is whether or not 71-72pts would be enough to get us in the playoffs...so you have to start asking will 2 of the following teams get the following number of points or more:
Boro: 13-14pts (9 games to play)
Preston: 14-15pts
Derby: 15-16pts (9 games to play)
Bristol: 16-17pts (10 games to play)
Wednesday: 16-17pts
Forest: 17-18pts
Hull: 20-21pts
Blose: 21-22pts
Over to you footyskillz...I look forward to seeing your analysis! Have fun
Just like I don't see Middlesboro poor form continuing rate of 1pt per match average meaning finish if 67pts
I also don't see the Preston north end continuous hot form in last 8 at 2.5 pts per game equalled for the final 8 matches. They would achieve -77pts !
Middlesbrough matches home 5 away 4.
70-72pts
70pts if they match the average season pts per game 1.57 = 12pts
And I've included boros home and away avearge after mentioned poor form points per match wanted another measurement for forecasting (this is because that 1pt a match is pretty hopeless and really ? Are they just going to collapse to that poor form for another 8 matches?!)
Boro 72pts. From expected home average and away average 14pts
Home average points 1.5 (X5)
Away average points 1.63(x4)
Preston 69pts-77pts
69pts Matching Season average 1.5 = 12pts
77pts matching current form
Preston need to maintain their great form and would be a real contender
Derby county 66pts -68pts
66pts If continue current form 10pts
68pts On Average pts per match for season =12pts
Bristol city 69-70pts
69pts On current form 13.8 pts - 14pts
70pts On season average = minimum of 15pts
Bristol city are a real contender due to 2 extra matches. Thank fully Boro and Bristol city play each other !
Sheffield Wednesday 66/67 pts - 71pts
71pts equalling current form =16pts
On season avearge=11/12pts
Wednesday need to continue to maintain their current form if so they are a real contender but can they maintain this form ??
Nottingham Forest 65/66pts
Equalling current form =12pts
On season average= 11pts
Summary -Forest would have to improve form and on points from season
Hull City 59pts-62pts
59 Current form 8pts
61/62 Season form 10/11pts
Hull have to super perform to get anywhere near
I'm not interested in Birmingham city the irrelevant!
Boro , Preston , Wednesday and Bristol City could all hit 70+pts based on this. For me I see Boro to get to the 71pts+ the other clubs need to reexamination of their fixtures for forecast
I feel Boro form could rise and Wednesday and Preston slow down .Bristol city are very interesting but then you bring in their fixtures and they are challenging .Conversely Derby fixtures less so. That said of all the clubs in contention some of these teams will pick up form and some will drop off . It's a potential indication but it's also noting fixtures of the opposition and also looking at home and away averages too for further indications.
Bookmakers indication
TO MAKE PLAYOFFS BEST ODDS
Boro 4/9
Aston villa 5/4
Derby 3/1
Bristol City 10/3
Preston 7/2
Forest 14/1
Sheffield Wednesday 18/1
Hull 80/1
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Good work footy.
Pretty much agree with your analysis that the main challengers remain to be Boro, Bristol and Derby.
Preston to play 3 of the top 4 so I'm going to rule them out of contention, and both Bristol and Derby have some tricky fixtures in their run in too. Boro seem to have the easiest remaining fixtures on paper but they are out of form and inconsistent. If we can go and unbeaten with 10pts in the next 4 games then we should be in a strong position if other results go the way they should. -
Why won't their poor form continue?
What was it about us utterly outclassing Derby and Boro, in their runs of 1 win in 8 and 9, that convinced you they had the quality, belief and legs to put another run of form together? When they've accumulated a largely unimpressive points per game rate of 1.5/6 all season?
There is a great opportunity to be 5th come 5pm a week Saturday and then to stretch our legs and make their games in hand come May, irrelevant. -
Momentum is always a factor which makes a lot of teams, including us, streaky and inconsistent. Obviously when the best player in the league is out and you're still repairing your defence, results aren't going to be great but even under Bruce we had good patches followed by bad ones, it's just what happens, players are human and become inhibited when things go against them.
Conversely, some teams ie Derby/Boro/Bristol have all had impressive runs of form before, now Derby may be in the transition period of stopping defeats with draws and the odd win before going on another good run while we have to wait and see if Boro have bottomed-out. Bristol are curious in that as a largely unfancied side, they had a sensational nine wins on the spin but are halfway through a run almost as poor suggesting, like Hull, they are probably finding their level. Preston had an awful first half of the season and Neil was probably close to the sack but they had horrendous injuries and since New Year their upward projectory has lasted longer than even Hull and Bristol with whom you'd bracket as mid-table fodder and little more. The fortune they've had recently in their last two wins and their upcoming fixtures suggest they will probably have a downturn now just when they need to match an in-form and seemingly (lion) rampant, Villa.
Finally, Wednesday have also been on an upturn, based initially on a solid defence but gradually adding goals now and seemingly a more complete team. However, they've had the fortune of building up confidence with these recent wins while playing a lot of the division's poorer sides.
Lastly, on the momentum thing, since collapsing against us with three goals conceded in the last ten minutes at Villa Park, Sheffield United have not conceded a goal in their nine(?) games since which is quite astonishing, especially given how ropey their goalkeeper looked with a couple of our goals.
Not sure what the point to my rambling is but I take comfort that this wacky league consistently shows that a great run can start from the pits of despair which I guess is what partially keeps us hoping and supporting through all the heartache.
Anyway, we'll finish 6th at least, that's the main thing. -
Maybe part of the reason that teams in this league appear inconsistent and that is because most of the teams are pretty evenly matched. Also, the players that are consistently good get bought by premier league teams.
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But in our case, it's been down to injuries to very key players.
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Apparently SHA getting deducted 9 points.
Would put them on fringes of relegation battle. -
Not confirmed yet ,but if true ,they have got off lightly
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We just need 5 more wins.
Blackburn at home, Bolton away and Rotherham should be bankers for that. Maybe add Millwall but they comfortably got a 0-0 at VP last season and like Brentford we've struggled a lot v them since coming down.
Would hold fire on that one particularly as they'll probably still be in a relegation battle at that point.
1 win and a few draws also coming from Sheff Weds, Bristol, Leeds and Norwich. Leeds and Sheff Weds will probably be our two hardest games left for various reasons. Brizzle we've done fine against since being down and I think Norwich will be up by the final day. Their record at Villa Park is dreadful anyway.
It's been a real flip flop season. Start of December I just took play offs for granted and was looking an "easy" January Feb run of games and thinking of outside top 2. That worked out well. Then after Brentford and WBA defeats I thought season over.
Think I'll just enjoy the ride for rest of the season. Last season there was massive pressure to go up, this feels to me like a free hit. -
Apparently SHA getting deducted 9 points.
Would put them on fringes of relegation battle.
Now officially confirmed -
Apparently SHA getting deducted 9 points.
Would put them on fringes of relegation battle.
Now officially confirmed
Lucky, lucky.
5 points clear of relegation but given 2 of the 3 places are done and dusted I don't think they're in any real danger.
No doubt they'll lap up the "us against the world" narrative too! -
Their next 3 are West Brom away and Leeds and Sheffield United at home....
I agree they'll still stay up as Rotherham and Reading both have very tough run ins. -
Seems like a soft penalty - they weren't going up, now this won't put them in any fear of relegation either. It would have had much more impact if they'd started next season on -9, but hey ho at least it's decided.
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I would absolutely piss myself if the EFL have held off giving them the full 12 points because they're about to dock them 6 more points for what happened to Grealish!
Imagine the Noses faces if they go from thinking they've got away with it to actually being plunged in to the relegation zone! -
Good work footy.
Pretty much agree with your analysis that the main challengers remain to be Boro, Bristol and Derby.
Preston to play 3 of the top 4 so I'm going to rule them out of contention, and both Bristol and Derby have some tricky fixtures in their run in too. Boro seem to have the easiest remaining fixtures on paper but they are out of form and inconsistent. If we can go and unbeaten with 10pts in the next 4 games then we should be in a strong position if other results go the way they should.
Thanks and can totally see your thinking there .
So I do think the Bristol city match for Villa is important (as are all) that even more so than sheff wed arguably.