Championship 2018-2019

[Hookeysmith]

It's going to be exciting and at this stage of the season it's what any fan wants.

It's going to be a ride and half and I'm just glad our burst of form has gave us this chance

[XXVilla]

My only concern about Rotherham is getting my arse out of there and back home to the scratcher ASAP

I think Millwall is more like the kind of game we could mess up. Do actually feel fairly confident that we will make the playoffs though.

Hopefully they’ll have a massive cup defeat hangover for the rest of the season.

[olaftab]

I’m gutted !
Given our last few performances and results I’ve been telling mates to get geared up for play off game against baggies.
However, I’ve just written out all top 11 clubs fixtures with guess results and I have ended up with ;
Norwich 100
Sheffield Utd 93
Leeds 93
WBA 87
Boro 76
Derby 73
AVFC 72
Bristol City 71
Preston 69
Forest 69
Sheffield W 65

One for once I bloody hope I’m proved wrong 😩. My guesses for us are pretty ok I think with maybe only debate my game v Bristol city to get additional points....
Blackburn W
Sheffield Wed D
Rotherham W
Bristol D
Bolton W
Millwall W
Leeds L
Norwich D

You have been very generous to the top 4. There is no way teams in 3rd and 4th are going to finish on 93 and 87. That's autopro points and Norwich are not going to hit 100. We will finish on 75 and 5th. Boro will not finish in top 6. Other than that your forecast is quite accurate.

[Steve67]

Surely we cannot say that the forecast is accurate until it is proven correct?  Pedant alert.

Whatever happens, I hope that Villa, by getting into 6th spot, don't suddenly think that the job is done and switch off.  No more false dawns. 

[footyskillz]

Ok let's look  forecast points total from 24 points and also final points
Going on what has occurred this season so far
and likely outcome based on stats
12+ pts
69,70,71pts based on season so far.

Villa will finish on 69pts with  12pts from last 8 because

Villa average 1.7 pts home   
4 matches to play =6.8

Villa average 1.3 pts away
4 matches to play 5.2

5.2+6.8=12pts

Also-this season :Overall pts per match  is 1.5 a match

Also Dean smith as manager average is 1.5

Villa finish on 70pts 13 points from 8 matches

This points forecast  because minus the
Average points of home teams to play
Average points away teams to play
 

Villa finish with 71pts.  14 pts from 8 games because :

Recent form of the last 8 games  is 1 .75 pts a match = 14 pts

So if villa match the current form with the remaining 8 matches  or further improve then villa can achieve a +70points total .

However in last 8 matches have reduced goal conceded to average 1 per match  if continued to be matched in remaining 8 I think would bring another 3/4 points in forecast.

for last 8 matches -There for I am optimistically forecasting at maximum 17/18pts and villa having potential to finish on 74/75pts .
(Though I do think be pushing it to get 15/16 points ! )


Personally I would confidently forecast with high probability victories in 4/8 matches
Blackburn 3
Rotherham 3
Milwall 3
Bolton 3

A very  good chance of victory v Bristol City 1/3pts

The away matches of Sheff wed 1 pts

12-14pts achieved at this stage would be above expected stat expectations based on  matches so far this season

So going into final 2matches being on  69 pts 70 or 71pts would give the chance for my forecast points to be met 17/18pts .

(I gave the extra 3/4 points from what is a best 14point based in stats of season due to to the goals conceded per game being reduced and the continue high goals scored per game )

Those two final matches are the variables Leeds , Norwich  to expectations .

I'll forecast the final 2 matches 0-3pts


12pts to 18 pts is the likelihood in  range of points villa will achieve
So that's 69 -75pts.


If going in to last two have achieved 14pts then that has met stats expectations. And the final 2 matches could  provide the extra pts.

If more than 14 from 18pts have been achieved in the first 6 matches then that's a very healthy position to be in regardless how the other clubs around villa are performing.

[Sexual Ealing]

For the Sheffield Wednesday game you can pretty much guarantee that the (yippee aye oh) rotunda from the sty will have been plotting his way to getting a point against us since the day he was appointed (and then went to the Windies). It's up to us to score the early goal to make sure he has to fall back on his plan B, damage limitation.

[KRS]

You have to factor dropping points in along the way, so with the 8 fixtures remaining I think 14-15pts (out of a possible 24pts) would be a realistic minimal target. The real question is whether or not 71-72pts would be enough to get us in the playoffs...so you have to start asking will 2 of the following teams get the following number of points or more:

Boro: 13-14pts (9 games to play)
Preston: 14-15pts
Derby: 15-16pts (9 games to play)
Bristol: 16-17pts (10 games to play)
Wednesday: 16-17pts
Forest: 17-18pts
Hull: 20-21pts
Blose: 21-22pts

Over to you footyskillz...I look forward to seeing your analysis! Have fun

[Marlon From Bearwood]

I did a prediction thing (I know) and had Boro finishing 5th on 73, with Villa and Derby both on 72 - we made the play offs on goal difference!

[Dazvillain]

Bristol City haven’t won for over a month so it will take a big turnaround for them to get another 16 points. Similarly Boro have lost three in a row. Trying to guess so many results is futile at the best of times but this season the Championship has been even more unpredictable than usual.

I do take on most of the points mentioned following my post but I did probably thought more about each teams opposition as opposed to their own form. Regarding Boro’s games I went for losses against Norwich, draws against Bristol, SWANSEA and forest and then beating Bolton, Hull, Stoke, reading and Rotherham , looks realistic to me, but yes their form would need to return.
For derby no losses (bit too ambitious looking back ), draws v bristol, blues, Brentford, swans and baggies, only winning v Rotherham, Blackburn, bolton and qpr. Looking at a run of fixtures they’ve probably got second hardest run in compared to ours

So, maybe, just maybe there’s a chance....how long can we really keep up our form ? Perversely I’m concerned that other injuries now returning for Lansbury and (can’t believe I’m saying this, unless axel pertners Mings and Hause returns to LB) axel may upset current balance and leave dean over tinkering with selection

God, I’m stresssed !!

[paul_e]

I agree with Risso and Ads, in Mings, McGinn, Jack and Tammy we have 4 of the 'championship best 11', if they play every game from now until the end of the season then we make the play offs with 75 points or more.

Footy did loads of stats but he missed a key one:

We've played 13 games under Smith with Grealish in the team and got 29 points or roughly 2.2 per game, that would be 18 more points for the season and put us on the 75 that I think we'll get.

[Lastfootstamper]

Let's hope Bolton find a buyer or go into administration rather than liquidation, as we'll be out the Play Offs and with one less game to make up.

That there is real chance they could be liquidated later this afternoon is staggering. What a clown Anderson is.

Buyer found. Winding up order averted. All the luck’s going our way for a change

Not quite out of the woods just yet, it would seem.
Fortnight adjournment while they sort out some mystery buyer, here's the
The Bolton News' take on it. It makes mention that the interested party "is said to have a “major stake in a high-level football club”". Which sheds no light on them whatsoever.

[Ads]

For me I look at how we're playing and who we're playing. We've just swept aside our rivals in the past 4 games, concedes 1 goal, scored 11 and looked miles better than all of them.

Derby, Boro and Bristol are out of form.

Preston have been very fortunate, their only shot on goal against the Noses was the 94th minute winner, Boro outplayed them until they were down to 10 men.

Wednesday are doing ok against lower to mid-table sides, but parking the bus against decent opposition.

Anything can happen, but the manner and style of play gives me huge confidence. We're not doing this by luck, we're just a lot better with our first choice XI than any of our rivals.

[Des Little]

Imagine the scenes when Tony Xia rocks up at Bolton in his terrible suit

[eamonn]

Shades of Ismay?

[Marlon From Bearwood]

Imagine the scenes when Tony Xia rocks up at Bolton in his terrible suit

Don’t forget the state of his shoes too.