The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Sexual Ealing]

I agree with the last sentence but by your reckoning Fulham will most likely finish second as they experienced it recently while us and Cardiff haven't.

Indeed. Brassneck's theory works relatively well until we remember that we've been shite for years so we have no experience of dealing with the pressure at the top.

[SoccerHQ]

Don't think we'll win both upcoming away games.

I can see us reducing the 7 point gap certainly get it down to 4 again or even 1 if we then beat Cardiff at VP.

The trouble is if we somehow get second we need to then keep on winning (unless it's last minute at Millwall of course!)

We saw the problem with that after SHA. Got into second then we stopped winning for the next 2 games and fell 4 points behind again.

Well if you can't see us beating bolton and hull away then it doesn't bode well for the play-offs i'd say. Win both of them and hoping cardiff don't beat Derby away and we could be 5 points off them come the 1st April. I'd be very disappointed and would concede defeat if the points total is more than 7 by then

Hull are starting to pick up now and have Abel Hernandez back so thay have a cutting edge upfront.

Can see us grinding out a 0-1 at Bolton but look at their recent results v top 6 teams, drew with Fulham a few weeks ago, beat Bristol 1-0 and also beat Cardiff before xmas. They are a tough team to beat at home.

4 points from our next two would've been fine in my book if we'd won last night.

[sickbeggar]

If we were 7 points clear in 2nd at present having won 7 in a row we'd be massively confident of going up and would be giving Cardiff and Fulham little to no chance of catching us. I know I would be. So likewise i'm not overly confident we can take 2nd, I hope we do, and it is possible, but I just think it's unlikely.

Well yeah you'd rather have the points in the bag any day of the week but i just don't think cardiff will carry on their current form till the end of the season. If they hammer us, Wolves and Sheffield United in April then i'll hold my hands up. Otherwise that's 9 points to play for and enough to overhaul them, with another 6 games to take into account

[sickbeggar]

Don't think we'll win both upcoming away games.

I can see us reducing the 7 point gap certainly get it down to 4 again or even 1 if we then beat Cardiff at VP.

The trouble is if we somehow get second we need to then keep on winning (unless it's last minute at Millwall of course!)

We saw the problem with that after SHA. Got into second then we stopped winning for the next 2 games and fell 4 points behind again.

Well if you can't see us beating bolton and hull away then it doesn't bode well for the play-offs i'd say. Win both of them and hoping cardiff don't beat Derby away and we could be 5 points off them come the 1st April. I'd be very disappointed and would concede defeat if the points total is more than 7 by then

Hull are starting to pick up now and have Abel Hernandez back so thay have a cutting edge upfront.

Can see us grinding out a 0-1 at Bolton but look at their recent results v top 6 teams, drew with Fulham a few weeks ago, beat Bristol 1-0 and also beat Cardiff before xmas. They are a tough team to beat at home.

4 points from our next two would've been fine in my book if we'd won last night.

well its swings and roundabouts really. I had us down for a draw with wolves so the loss against QPR wasn't such a body blow imo. If cardiff take 6 points from the next 2 games and we don't, i'd agree automatic promotion is over. Actually if they just take more points than us it's over.

[Brassneck]

I agree with the last sentence but by your reckoning Fulham will most likely finish second as they experienced it recently while us and Cardiff haven't.

Indeed. Brassneck's theory works relatively well until we remember that we've been shite for years so we have no experience of dealing with the pressure at the top.

Brassneck's theory was that the players have experience, not the club.

Terry's record speaks for itself. Snodgrass, Grabban, Chester, Elmo, Jedinak, Whelan, Taylor and Albert have all experienced promotions from this division. Of course, we also have a manager who has experienced this scenario several times as well.

[Brassneck]

This feels eerily reminiscent of the O'Neill era when we were ahead of Arsenal on points, then threw 4th place away.  The 2-2 Stoke draw being a similar stand out game for the wrong reasons as the 3-1 defeat last night.

Of course the winless run that followed might also have contributed.

[Brassneck]

I agree with the last sentence but by your reckoning Fulham will most likely finish second as they experienced it recently while us and Cardiff haven't.

Yes, but as per my other post above, the majority and the team HAVE experienced promotion from this division, unlike Fulham.

Fulham of course should not be ignored, given the quality of their side and the momentum they are in.

Currently, Villa are 3rd in the betting behind both Cardiff and Fulham for automatic. That's about right but it doesn't mean we give in.

[Ads]

Leicester hadn't experienced it before and didn't bottle it. For every bottle job there's a side that didn't bottle it.

That's because Spurs did...hahahaha. ahem. Excuse me.

[olaftab]

No Spurs didn’t lose the League title by bottling they lost 2nd to Arsenal. They way Leicester finished was their own doing not Spurs failure.

[PeterWithesShin]

I agree with the last sentence but by your reckoning Fulham will most likely finish second as they experienced it recently while us and Cardiff haven't.

Yes, but as per my other post above, the majority and the team HAVE experienced promotion from this division, unlike Fulham.

Fulham of course should not be ignored, given the quality of their side and the momentum they are in.

Currently, Villa are 3rd in the betting behind both Cardiff and Fulham for automatic. That's about right but it doesn't mean we give in.

When it came to Man Utd the experience of missing out was a big factor in them going on to win in 1993, surely the same applies to Fulham?

[Ads]

They only just squeaked into the Play Offs didn't they?

[Richard E]

This is all very stressful. I'm quite tempted to go into a coma until the evening of 26th May and wake up to find out what league we are in next year.

[eamonn]

This feels eerily reminiscent of the O'Neill era when we were ahead of Arsenal on points, then threw 4th place away.  The 2-2 Stoke draw being a similar stand out game for the wrong reasons as the 3-1 defeat last night.

But we've never been ahead of Cardiff save for one game. We had a strong lead over Arsenal and messed it up. Cardiff have been second or third most of the season so they'll more than deserve it.
Derby have been the biggest bottlers so far. Their last two months form has been abysmal.

[Brassneck]

I agree with the last sentence but by your reckoning Fulham will most likely finish second as they experienced it recently while us and Cardiff haven't.

Yes, but as per my other post above, the majority and the team HAVE experienced promotion from this division, unlike Fulham.

Fulham of course should not be ignored, given the quality of their side and the momentum they are in.

Currently, Villa are 3rd in the betting behind both Cardiff and Fulham for automatic. That's about right but it doesn't mean we give in.

When it came to Man Utd the experience of missing out was a big factor in them going on to win in 1993, surely the same applies to Fulham?

We are one point ahead of them and only need to match them in the remaining 9 games. We all accept that there is little room for error and Cardiff's incredible winning streak has raised the bar. It should also be remembered that Fulham finished the season very strongly and were never seriously challenging the top 2. It's hardly experience in challenging for auto is it?

[mr underhill]

I'd take finishing third and playing whomever finishes sixth, which won't be Fulham.