The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Brassneck]

Knowing us, we'll be in spitting distance of Cardiff when we play them, and then lose that match.

5 games to go, just like Ipswich 81 was.

[sickbeggar]

I'd say the whole league isn't much cop, should be called the Mediocre Championship really. I know Sheffield United will need the points when they play Cardiff, so will Wolves, and if we can't get up for a home game against them then forget the play-offs as well. Of their other games they have, Derby need the points, while Hull and Burton will need them for other reasons.

of course it's the same with us, but 7 or less points between us come the 1st April and we have a decent chance providing we do our bit.

[SoccerHQ]

I'm gona take one for the team ..im going to bet on Cardiff to win every time they play , with my betting record I'm confident I can jinx them ....

They're still being price decently.

Were 2/1 to win last night so had a fiver on that. Think they're 6/4 this weekend.

[SoccerHQ]

Don't think we'll win both upcoming away games.

I can see us reducing the 7 point gap certainly get it down to 4 again or even 1 if we then beat Cardiff at VP.

The trouble is if we somehow get second we need to then keep on winning (unless it's last minute at Millwall of course!)

We saw the problem with that after SHA. Got into second then we stopped winning for the next 2 games and fell 4 points behind again.

[Lastfootstamper]

AV last 4 games under Graham Taylor, fighting for the league title:
Lost, won, drawn, drawn.
Finished runners up to Liverpool who had experienced the run in before.

AV last 4 games under BFR, fighting for the league title:
Won, lost, lost, lost.
Finished runners up to Man U who had experienced the run in before.

AV last 5 games under Ron Saunders, fighting for the league title:
Lost, won, drawn, won, lost.
Won the league ahead of Ipswich whose final 5 results were:
Lost, lost, won, lost, lost.
Neither team had previous experience of challenging for the title.

AV last 5 games promotion under Graham Taylor:
Lost, drew, won, won, drew.
Promoted and all rivals dropped similar amounts of points.

Now I'm not saying that this happens all the time but speaking as a Villa fan who is old enough to remember all of those run ins, form and football goes out of the window in those final few games. The pressure is like nothing you have experienced for the bulk of the season. look at the Man Us, the Liverpools and the Chelseas when they won titles - They always had it in them to finish strongly.

Let's not give it up yet. let's see if we can be in with a shout after the Cardiff game. If we aren't then we only have ourselves to blame for the performances at the start of the season and in December.

Not this one. They'd not seriously challenged for the title for yonks.

Ah, those were the days! 

[Brassneck]

AV last 4 games under Graham Taylor, fighting for the league title:
Lost, won, drawn, drawn.
Finished runners up to Liverpool who had experienced the run in before.

AV last 4 games under BFR, fighting for the league title:
Won, lost, lost, lost.
Finished runners up to Man U who had experienced the run in before.

AV last 5 games under Ron Saunders, fighting for the league title:
Lost, won, drawn, won, lost.
Won the league ahead of Ipswich whose final 5 results were:
Lost, lost, won, lost, lost.
Neither team had previous experience of challenging for the title.

AV last 5 games promotion under Graham Taylor:
Lost, drew, won, won, drew.
Promoted and all rivals dropped similar amounts of points.

Now I'm not saying that this happens all the time but speaking as a Villa fan who is old enough to remember all of those run ins, form and football goes out of the window in those final few games. The pressure is like nothing you have experienced for the bulk of the season. look at the Man Us, the Liverpools and the Chelseas when they won titles - They always had it in them to finish strongly.

Let's not give it up yet. let's see if we can be in with a shout after the Cardiff game. If we aren't then we only have ourselves to blame for the performances at the start of the season and in December.

Not this one. They'd not seriously challenged for the title for yonks.

Ah, those were the days!

They were runners up to Leeds the season before. It was that experience that gave them the edge the second time around, whilst going head to head with us.

[PeterWithesShin]

Well they had but they'd bottled it the previous season. Hardly won for the last few months to hand the title to Leeds.

[PeterWithesShin]

Leicester hadn't experienced it before and didn't bottle it. For every bottle job there's a side that didn't bottle it.

[amfy]

Don't think we'll win both upcoming away games.

I can see us reducing the 7 point gap certainly get it down to 4 again or even 1 if we then beat Cardiff at VP.

The trouble is if we somehow get second we need to then keep on winning (unless it's last minute at Millwall of course!)

We saw the problem with that after SHA. Got into second then we stopped winning for the next 2 games and fell 4 points behind again.

I feel like the Fulham/Preston blip was more because of the injuries we picked up v Blues. Last night is the only result that has simply been downright shite this year.

For that reason, I feel our form has been as good as anyone really.

All we can do now is keep winning games and hope.....and it isn't really a 3 game turnaround, it's kind of 2 and a half (although I see what people are saying when they say that) - we need 2 wins against 2 defeats, but the third game only has to be a win against a draw, or even a draw against a defeat.

[Lastfootstamper]

Oops, my mistake. I always forget about the Leeds year, in my head I've got Arsenal and Liverpool divvying up the top two for what seemed forever.

[sickbeggar]

Don't think we'll win both upcoming away games.

I can see us reducing the 7 point gap certainly get it down to 4 again or even 1 if we then beat Cardiff at VP.

The trouble is if we somehow get second we need to then keep on winning (unless it's last minute at Millwall of course!)

We saw the problem with that after SHA. Got into second then we stopped winning for the next 2 games and fell 4 points behind again.

Well if you can't see us beating bolton and hull away then it doesn't bode well for the play-offs i'd say. Win both of them and hoping cardiff don't beat Derby away and we could be 5 points off them come the 1st April. I'd be very disappointed and would concede defeat if the points total is more than 7 by then

[Brassneck]

Leicester hadn't experienced it before and didn't bottle it. For every bottle job there's a side that didn't bottle it.

Well there has to be doesn't there? Otherwise nobody would ever win the league.

That wasn't the point. The point is that those with experience invariably fair better than those who are experiencing it for the first time (Leicester being the exception rather than the norm but even then, they drew 3 of their last 5) Also, I'm trying to make the point that winnable games on paper are not that straightforward come the last 4 or 5 games.

[Risso]

This feels eerily reminiscent of the O'Neill era when we were ahead of Arsenal on points, then threw 4th place away.  The 2-2 Stoke draw being a similar stand out game for the wrong reasons as the 3-1 defeat last night.

[PeterWithesShin]

I agree with the last sentence but by your reckoning Fulham will most likely finish second as they experienced it recently while us and Cardiff haven't.

[PeterWithesShin]

If we were 7 points clear in 2nd at present having won 7 in a row we'd be massively confident of going up and would be giving Cardiff and Fulham little to no chance of catching us. I know I would be. So likewise i'm not overly confident we can take 2nd, I hope we do, and it is possible, but I just think it's unlikely.