The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Three Spires Villa]

Win Sunday, draw at Fulham, that’s ok

[villa `cross the mersey]

I think we will beat the Noses and Fulham.

I'll have some of what you are smoking or drinking !
Or take an optimism pill
Live on TV at midday against an "in form" Small Heath what could ever go wrong?l

Beating a relegation battler and somebody below us in the league isn't exactly wild is It?

The Noses are shite and there isn't a side in the country as in form as us.

If we don't beat them at home it would be hugely disappointing.

We win when we're on the box all the while. Like our last two away games for example, so I'm not sure what that's got to do with it. In fact we win more often than we don't regardless of being live.

It's a derby so form can easily goes out the window - I think calling Small Heath "Shite" is a touch arrogant- their recent results tell a different story- we shall see
I think it will be a very tense game with a draw being the most likely outcome -

[Ads]

Why?

They're 19th and have scored 22 goals in 30 games, conceding over 40.

I'm not sure why our form goes out the window but theirs doesn't? They beat a pub team in Sunderland and a Wednesday side who haven't scored a league goal since Boxing Day, who also had 9 men. For a reminder, we've just won 6 on the bounce and sit 3rd, having scored more than double what they have.

I'll have some of what you're smoking if you want me to be worried about that shite from B9.

[LeeB]

Why?

They're 19th and have scored 22 goals in 30 games, conceding over 40.

I'm not sure why our form goes out the window but theirs doesn't? They beat a pub team in Sunderland and a Wednesday side who haven't scored a league goal since Boxing Day, who also had 9 men.

I'll have some of what you're smoking if you want me to be worried about that shite from B9.

I’ll have some of whatever anyone is smoking regardless of the dogs hit.

Ta.

[villa `cross the mersey]

Why?

They're 19th and have scored 22 goals in 30 games, conceding over 40.

I'm not sure why our form goes out the window but theirs doesn't? They beat a pub team in Sunderland and a Wednesday side who haven't scored a league goal since Boxing Day, who also had 9 men. For a reminder, we've just won 6 on the bounce and sit 3rd, having scored more than double what they have.

I'll have some of what you're smoking if you want me to be worried about that shite from B9.

That will be the same Sheffield Wednesday who won at B6 and the pub team we "smashed " 2-1
Dare me to have the temerity to doubt your optimism
Enjoy the rest of your weekend - I'm off for a brandy and spliff

[Ads]

I'm just curious why you were coming at me with patronising garbage implying you'd have to be high for the form team in the country to win their next two games.

Seems to me it's because our form doesn't matter but their inferior form does. Just odd.

Be as negative as you like, it's only been 28 years afterall.

[Toronto Villa]

We might well draw vs Birmingham because games aren’t played on paper. But simply based on our form vs theirs, quality of our players vs theirs, being at Villa Park, we should win. That’s not really a stretch and we should very confident going into the game.

[villa `cross the mersey]

I'm just curious why you were coming at me with patronising garbage implying you'd have to be high for the form team in the country to win their next two games.

Seems to me it's because our form doesn't matter but their inferior form does. Just odd.

Be as negative as you like, it's only been 28 years afterall.

I may be negative and like a moan ( I am a Brummie after all) but despite all I like to think I have kept my sense of humour - "patronising garbage" eh ? As ever you appear to be angling for a spat online .......my post was light hearted - you for some reason didn't see it  that way

[aj2k77]

Fuck the Rags, they're going to get it next Sunday.

[Ads]

I'm just curious why you were coming at me with patronising garbage implying you'd have to be high for the form team in the country to win their next two games.

Seems to me it's because our form doesn't matter but their inferior form does. Just odd.

Be as negative as you like, it's only been 28 years afterall.

I may be negative and like a moan ( I am a Brummie after all) but despite all I like to think I have kept my sense of humour - "patronising garbage" eh ? As ever you appear to be angling for a spat online .......my post was light hearted - you for some reason didn't see it  that way

If it's light hearted fair enough. You're still wrong loike...

[villa `cross the mersey]

I'm just curious why you were coming at me with patronising garbage implying you'd have to be high for the form team in the country to win their next two games.

Seems to me it's because our form doesn't matter but their inferior form does. Just odd.

Be as negative as you like, it's only been 28 years afterall.

I may be negative and like a moan ( I am a Brummie after all) but despite all I like to think I have kept my sense of humour - "patronising garbage" eh ? As ever you appear to be angling for a spat online .......my post was light hearted - you for some reason didn't see it  that way

If it's light hearted fair enough. You're still wrong loike...

Ha ha - only a week to ponder over what is the most nerve wracking fixture of the season ......I hate the game
I still have bad memories of the time they had the Indian sign  over us and won a fair few on the bounce ( was it six or seven?)
Some knuckledragger spray painted a wall near Selly Oak Station which read "seven in a row hah ha" (or suchlike)
It haunted me daily on my train journey to Five Ways - let's not forget it's their cup final and they will be up for it - we may have better quality players but we need to match their passion and spirit - what the odds on Flabby playing and scoring ?

[aj2k77]

It's nearly 13 years and 11 fixtures without a loss for us in the derby. Form does go out of the window a bit but historically, at least recently, they only beat us when we have a shit team. We have a better side then they do, we're at home, they're poor, home win 1-0.

[Brassneck]

Personally, I'm not counting any chickens next Sunday. I agree with others that the derby usually tends to be a great leveler. Obviously I'm going into it with optimism but I'm still a bit worried if I'm honest.  All good runs have to give sooner or later and we have a 6 game winning run as well as an 11 game unbeaten run (against them). You also have to factor in that when you talk about teams treating games at VP like cup finals, none do so more than this lot - They consistently raise their game, keep it tight and generally make it hard for us. 4 points from the next two games would be fantastic and is what I'm hoping for. I don't care which way round the win and the draw come. I admire Ads optimism and if we do get 6 points from the next 2 games, I'll be first in line to buy him a pint.

Whatever happens in the next 2 games, we have a great opportunity to win the following 4 on the bounce. By the time we play Wolves in March, it could well be first v second

Going back to the promotion maths, I'm not convinced that 90 points will be required for second spot. If we average 2 points a game in the final 16, we'll end with 88 points. With some of the fixtures Derby, Cardiff and Fulham have, it wouldn't be unrealistic to expect them to hit slightly under 2 points a game.

[SoccerHQ]

Aside from the famous 5-1 all games against them have been draws or 1-0s haven't they since we started dominating this fixture from 2005.

Under MON we won three of the games by a one goal margin and all those were late winners and then we start drawing and then losing that awful cup game when we appointed poor managers.

They've improved a lot last 6 weeks so I can see it being tight and them nicking a goal at some stage.

If it's a draw so be it, I couldn't care less if we go up even if a point that keeps them up.

[Marlon From Bearwood]

The Cahill game was 3-1