The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[Brassneck]

I think Pete may have interpreted the post a bit differently...

Or possibly not be aware that Cardiff played last night?

Norwich are in good form having won 4 out of their last 5. A point at Derby would be a good result (for them as well as us). Bolton have become resilient but have lost their main striker to Cardiff. Again, a draw would be a good result for both Bolton and ourselves.

[SoccerHQ]

None of the chasing pack have won.

Points needed to secure second decreases every time that happens.

Could be low 80s now.

[phantom limb]

Results went our way, it’s up to us tomorrow.

[Meanwood Villa]

Beat Small Heath and go second. It''s quite exciting really.

[SoccerHQ]

You won't need 90 points to secure second, I can assure people of that.

For Derby to get past 90 points they need to win 10 of their last 15 games, Cardiff 12 of their last 16, Fulham 13 of their last 15.#

Bristol City are a non factor for automatic promotion now.

[berneboy]

The story and figures for automatic promotion are here:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/36906402

[OCD]

The average to secure 2nd spot in recent years has been 86 points. So we would need 30 more for that or 10 wins from 16 games.

[Brassneck]

You won't need 90 points to secure second, I can assure people of that.

For Derby to get past 90 points they need to win 10 of their last 15 games, Cardiff 12 of their last 16, Fulham 13 of their last 15.#

Bristol City are a non factor for automatic promotion now.

Yes I agree - it's worked out an average of more than 2 points a game for some time now. I think it will be a fairly low total this year with so many proverbial "6 pointers". By the same token, Wolves only need 6 wins to take them to 89 points so any lingering hopes of catching them should be let go now. They will go up as champions and the rest of us are scrapping for second.

[SoccerHQ]

The average to secure 2nd spot in recent years has been 86 points. So we would need 30 more for that or 10 wins from 16 games.

Cardiff and Derby will draw plenty more games in the run in, have you seen Cardiff's run around March and April?

To me this year there isn't a stand out second team in the league. Exciting thing is since xmas we are probably that team who come on strong now and time our run right.

[Toronto Villa]

Today has proved again that whatever the average has been in the past or whatever the approximate games for promotion might be hypothetically, everything goes out the window when teams go on win streaks like us, or blow leads like we’ve seen this afternoon. All of those sides will be gutted and that will affect confidence and morale.

[Pete3206]

Guaranteed to be either 2nd or 3rd after this weekend’s games now.

Bit premature to say that methinks

No, just basic arithmetic.

Ahh, I thought he meant final position.

[eamonn]

Nice set of results. Will make it easier to take when we all get up early for tomorrow's drab and shite nil-all.

[Lastfootstamper]

I suppose I could look it up myself, but, well, ya know, satdy innit.

When people are stating average points for second in past years, is that the number of points actually gained by the team finishing second, or how many's been required to have just one more than the side finishing third?

[Brassneck]

I suppose I could look it up myself, but, well, ya know, satdy innit.

When people are stating average points for second in past years, is that the number of points actually gained by the team finishing second, or how many's been required to have just one more than the side finishing third?

To a certain extent, it is irrelevant. We need what we need and the only nailed on fact is that we need more than the team who finishes 3rd.

We are in the mix and as SB has continually stated, we need to be there when there are 6 odd games to go.

This season is different to last (and to many recent seasons) in that there is one runaway team and then 4 more teams scrapping for second. This will mean that ultimately, second place will require a lower points total.

I think we have a fairly difficult run in and ideally it would be nice to build a cushion over the next 4 games. I dread the final 2 games and hope against hope that we'll have it sewn up before then. As long as we remain within touching distance, the final points total doesn't matter.

[cdward]

Nice set of results. Will make it easier to take when we all get up early for tomorrow's drab and shite nil-all.

Getting up at 4am, to get to the airport for a 6.30 flight. I am hoping 3 points and therefore being in the automatic promotion place will make the early morning easier.