The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[PeterWithe]

Kendal is a mint cake town

Footlights Kendal Mintcake.

[olaftab]

Cardiff just lost four in a row before they had the freebie of Sunderland at home.
Not sure they'll even make top 6.

But they have been around the top two most of the season.

[eamonn]

Is Darren Bent still on their books? Maybe he can help is out on the decisive day in April.

[HK Villan]

I'm with Ad@m on the Derby thing. They've been "famous" for less time than Leeds. Same with Forest. The successes for both of them have been blips, albeit quite big blips in the latter's case, but still blips nonetheless, in otherwise utterly unremarkable histories.

A bit like us bar 100+ years ago and a brief spell in the early 80s?

[Ads]

We've spent over 100 years in the top flight. Most of these other clubs are only pushing half of that.

Must have missed winning a few trophies in the 70s and 90s and qualifying for Europe a good dozen or so times if not more.

Irrelevant us ah?

[SoccerHQ]

Cardiff just lost four in a row before they had the freebie of Sunderland at home.
Not sure they'll even make top 6.

But they have been around the top two most of the season.

So were Sheffield and they quickly fell out of the top 6 after a poor run around xmas.

Cardiff won their first five games so they had a 10 point lead on us at the start of the season. That lead has pretty much evaporated now so think they'll struggle to finish in the play offs, don't see them being more of a factor than Derby for second.

[SoccerHQ]

We've spent over 100 years in the top flight. Most of these other clubs are only pushing half of that.

Must have missed winning a few trophies in the 70s and 90s and qualifying for Europe a good dozen or so times if not more.

Irrelevant us ah?

Another way of looking at it, two league cups in last 25 years. Same haul as Spurs.

[eamonn]

And probably then beats Everton's one FA Cup win in that time #minorvictories

[jwarry]

Just spotted our penultimate game is home to Derby, could be a cup final that one

[oldtimernow]

34 points haul between now and the end of the season, will 81 points be enough for automatic promotion?

[Ads]

Wouldn't have thought so. Aim for 92, but it may be the mid-80s that's enough.

Last season Fulham finished 6th with 80 points, but that was an unusually high total required. 70 plus should be enough for the Play Offs. 85/7 likely enough for 2nd. 92 would guarantee it.

[chrisw1]

Wouldn't have thought so. Aim for 92, but it may be the mid-80s that's enough.

Last season Fulham finished 6th with 80 points, but that was an unusually high total required. 70 plus should be enough for the Play Offs. 85/7 likely enough for 2nd. 92 would guarantee it.

Unless Derby get 93.  But yeah, I know what you mean.

[paul_e]

Wouldn't have thought so. Aim for 92, but it may be the mid-80s that's enough.

Last season Fulham finished 6th with 80 points, but that was an unusually high total required. 70 plus should be enough for the Play Offs. 85/7 likely enough for 2nd. 92 would guarantee it.

Unless Derby get 93.  But yeah, I know what you mean.

Getting 92 and not making the automatic spots would be the first time since the league has been in this format (92-93).

The bottom end of automatic promotion would be about 87-88 I think given Derby look strong so 40 points is right on the edge.  12 wins and 4 draws from the last 19 to get that though so we really haven't got much wiggle room and we're close to the point where a 'good away point' is worth nothing to us.  I agree with Ads we really should be looking at 12 points from the next 4, that's then 7 wins on the bounce, which is the sort of form that drags you into the automatic promotion spots.

For the playoffs I think it'll be about 75 this year.

[Hookeysmith]

win the next 7 games and we will be on 34 played with 68 points - back on target

bring it on 

[mr underhill]

have we ever won 10 consecutive games?