The Much Awaited Return of Promotion Maths

[eamonn]

Maybe when Einstein and Chaplin were children.

[Nastylee]

Think we need 14 wins from what's left and no more than 3 defeats. Going to be close but if Derby could have a wobble then it might not take 90 points. Behind us I think Fulham are the team on the move. We need Derby to have a 'Villa December' or a 'MON March'.

[London Villan]

Or a ‘Lambert season’.

[eamonn]

A Lambert Jan'13 would be great.

[cdbearsfan]

have we ever won 10 consecutive games?

I've only got as far as World War One but the best I've found is eleven straight wins in 1914.

Stoke (h) 1-0 (FA Cup)
Sunderland (h) 5-0
Everton (a) 4-1
Exeter (a) 2-1 (FA Cup)
WBA (h) 2-0
Wednesday (a) 3-2
WBA (h) 2-1 (FA Cup)
Bolton (h) 1-0
Chelsea (a) 3-0
Wednesday (a) 1-0 (FA Cup)
Man Utd (a) 6-0 (!)

Ended with a goalless home draw against Oldham. We went on to finish runners-up to Blackburn and lost in the Semi-Final of the cup to Liverpool.

Will look to see if I can find a better sequence tomorrow when I'm supposed to be working.

[SirSteveUK]

On our current points per game schedule - we would achieve 80 pts

In every season from 2008-2016 - that would be enough for the playoffs  - even last season where the 6th team finished with 80 pts

At Home we have
4 games against Top 7
1 game against Preston - currently 9th
5 games against teams in the bottom 11

Away - we have
3 games against top half
6 games against bottom half teams - including 3 of the bottom 5.

I know optimism in this thread is about as rare as unicorn shit, but....

2nd place is more problematic - the 4 highest pts totals for 2nd place have happened in the last 4 years
93-89-89-93

Of the 7 teams who went up in those years (Burnley twice) only 1 (Boro) is back down here - so its no surprise that the points totals were so high.

Derby on their current schedule would just about match those figures - they would finish with 89 pts.(And Wolves would get 106)

We have 19 games left - a record of W9 D6 L4 would get us to 80 pts - and that's with only 9 wins

In summary - we're all shit - and let's take one game at a time  LOL

[olaftab]

We are not or should not lose 4 games from now on so the question is how many we can actually win with minimum number of drawn matches? I am saying win 13 draw 4 lose 2.  90 points second place. However in the past Bruce’s teams have not achieved this required level of results.

[ChicagoLion]

If I am reading you right Sir, we can only afford to lose 2 and draw 4, that would get us 90 points.
That means winning 13 from 19, that is a big ask.
Still looks like play offs.

[chrisw1]

It does look tough.

But the reality is if we can beat Derby at home then the gap is effectively 2 points with 18 other games games to bridge it.

[Clampy]

On our current points per game schedule - we would achieve 80 pts

In every season from 2008-2016 - that would be enough for the playoffs  - even last season where the 6th team finished with 80 pts

At Home we have
4 games against Top 7
1 game against Preston - currently 9th
5 games against teams in the bottom 11

Away - we have
3 games against top half
6 games against bottom half teams - including 3 of the bottom 5.

I know optimism in this thread is about as rare as unicorn shit, but....

2nd place is more problematic - the 4 highest pts totals for 2nd place have happened in the last 4 years
93-89-89-93

Of the 7 teams who went up in those years (Burnley twice) only 1 (Boro) is back down here - so its no surprise that the points totals were so high.

Derby on their current schedule would just about match those figures - they would finish with 89 pts.(And Wolves would get 106)

We have 19 games left - a record of W9 D6 L4 would get us to 80 pts - and that's with only 9 wins

In summary - we're all shit - and let's take one game at a time  LOL

The last line is exactly what I'm thinking and normally have done. Absolutely anything can happen so I don't bother thinking too far ahead. Take each game as it comes and see what happens with the other results on the day.

[Drummond]

It does look tough.

But the reality is if we can beat Derby at home then the gap is effectively 2 points with 18 other games games to bridge it.

That's the key. by 17th Feb we'll have played away at all the Top 11 and have a bunch of them to play at home, including Derby who we play on 28th April. A key game at a key time.....

[paul_e]

If we have most of the top sides left to play at home then, by simple deduction we must've played an easier 'set' of home games than most other sides in the league.  On that basis should we have expected more than 7 wins from 13?  The flip side is that our away record, given who we've played, is very good and will hopefully improve but we definitely need to see improved home form at a time when we're playing better teams, if we want to get top 2.

[berneboy]

It does look tough.

But the reality is if we can beat Derby at home then the gap is effectively 2 points with 18 other games games to bridge it.

Three points? Cardiff are three ahead of us. Though we play them at home too (10th April) so maybe you're right!

[Drummond]

If we have most of the top sides left to play at home then, by simple deduction we must've played an easier 'set' of home games than most other sides in the league.  On that basis should we have expected more than 7 wins from 13?  The flip side is that our away record, given who we've played, is very good and will hopefully improve but we definitely need to see improved home form at a time when we're playing better teams, if we want to get top 2.

One home defeat is good, though we could really have done with more than 7 wins and obviously fewer than 5 draws.

[paul_e]

If we have most of the top sides left to play at home then, by simple deduction we must've played an easier 'set' of home games than most other sides in the league.  On that basis should we have expected more than 7 wins from 13?  The flip side is that our away record, given who we've played, is very good and will hopefully improve but we definitely need to see improved home form at a time when we're playing better teams, if we want to get top 2.

One home defeat is good, though we could really have done with more than 7 wins and obviously fewer than 5 draws.

Oh I agree, that's the problem really, too many home draws against weaker sides who came for the draw and that we had no idea how to break down.