Promotion Maths

[mr underhill]

as his results have been very good, I don't really care - and the real time to judge is when he has had the opportunity to bring in his own players. Can't attend tonight sadly but hoping for a big performance. UTV!

[tomd2103]

We're still going to need a good run of wins somewhere just to make the play offs.  If Sheff Weds win, we're looking at a gap of seven points, which although is not massive, will take some making up.

[Old Kodjia]

We're still going to need a good run of wins somewhere just to make the play offs.  If Sheff Weds win, we're looking at a gap of seven points, which although is not massive, will take some making up.

Spot on.  Everyone keeps talking about this "2 points per game" ratio but it's not much use if everyone else is doing the same.  All the teams above us have hit winning runs of 6 wins on the trot, or at least 5 wins out of 6.  The best we have done is 2 lots of back to back wins. 

We've done well to climb the table but this is in part due to the weaker sides failing to maintain their consistency (Preston, Bristol City & Blues etc).  Teams such as Derby, Leeds and Sheffield Wednesday are looking very strong, getting stronger if anything.  I can't see those teams hitting a bad run or averaging much less than 2 points per game.  Derby will spend in January, they will definitely improve up front.

Getting into that top 6 is still a very big ask, even averaging 2 points per game.  To me, it all hinges on January and what we do in terms of signings.  It looks like we have a new keeper, for me, the priority is as everyone agrees, at least one midfielder.  After that, I think we need a striker who can play the lone role as I don't think any of our current crop can do so effectively.  I'm not as critical of Hutton as many on here, as such, for me, a new RB would be good but not essential.  Having said that, Bruce has mentioned several times the need for a new defender.

An improved midfield (and that may mean 2 in if Jedinak continues his recent run of bad form) can help both ends of the field, which in turn could be the difference between winning and drawing games.

[Matt Collins]

There's still a long way to go

I doubt that every one of the teams above us will maintain current form. Especially Huddersfield and Wednesday.

Whether we can keep up this ratio is another matter. January is going to crucial on and off the pitch

[Old Kodjia]

There is a long way to go.  Half a season in fact.  I still think that Derby and Leeds are going to take some catching, Wednesday too, who lasted the distance last season, beating Brighton home and away in the play offs.

I think that Derby and Leeds are going to match us 2nd half of the season, most likely Wednesday as well.  I don't really know enough about Reading to comment but hope that Huddersfield lose form at some point.

As I said, (as did the poster before me), we need to put a run of wins together, like everyone else has done.

[Ads]

7 points from 3 games is a decent return. Back it up at Cardiff and we will claw back further lost ground.

Not one step backward comrades.

[Old Kodjia]

7 points from 3 games is a decent return. Back it up at Cardiff and we will claw back further lost ground.

Not one step backward comrades.

Whilst it is a decent return, would we really expect anything other than 3 points from QPR & Burton?  I would expect any top 8 side to beat those 2.  Out of Brighton, leeds twice and Norwich, we've collected 2 points.  This is where we need to improve.

[damon loves JT]

I don't think anyone is saying we don't need to improve.

[Old Kodjia]

I don't think anyone is saying we don't need to improve.

But some are saying that this current average of 2 points per game will be enough.  It may not be.

[Ads]

It would be enough to put us in the play offs based on the past 20 years of points returns.

[Old Kodjia]

It would be enough to put us in the play offs based on the past 20 years of points returns.

That's reassuring.  It doesn't escape the fact that there are some very good teams above us.  This division gets tougher every season and it's not unrealistic for the top 5 or 6 all to hit 79/80 points.

The only good thing is that everyone has to play everyone still, other than us and Leeds, so there are plenty of points to be dropped.  I personally believe that Leeds, Sheff Wed and Derby are going to go the distance.  They already have around a 6 point advantage over us.

I'm hopeful that we will grow in the second half of the season.

[old man villa fan]

With so many teams around the play-off positions, teams will beat each other.  Everybody cannot win each week so teams will drop points.  We do need to start beating teams around us though.

[olaftab]

With so many teams around the play-off positions, teams will beat each other.  Everybody cannot win each week so teams will drop points.  We do need to start beating teams around us though.

No we just need to beat teams we play every week

[old man villa fan]

 

With so many teams around the play-off positions, teams will beat each other.  Everybody cannot win each week so teams will drop points.  We do need to start beating teams around us though.

No we just need to beat teams we play every week

Can we play Rotherham every week 

[olaftab]

Or turn opposition into Rotherham every week