Promotion Maths

[SoccerHQ]

Burton have beaten Derby and Sheff Weds this season.

[IFWaters]

Average for 6th in last 10 seasons is 74 but ATM Sheffield Weds are on track for 79 points. Whilst someone will probably drop off that piece I can certainly see Derby catching up so even at 2 points a game we would get to 79 points. It's going to be so so close.

[SoccerHQ]

75 points will be more than enough I reckon.

Let's not forget in the good runs of Reading, Leeds, Huddersfield they haven't been playing each other so they'll be dropped points when they all meet in second half of the season and we play them all again with a fair few at VP where we don't lose.

[Old Kodjia]

I'd like to see what the points totals were at the half way stage in previous seasons.

Taking the top 2 out of the equation, we currently have 5 teams on 40 points or more.  if they match that in the 2nd half of the season, there will be 5 on 80+ points.

[oswald funkletrumpet]

Our fate is in our own hands

the majority of teams above us have got to come to vp

Beat them and not only are we picking up 3 points we are getting 3 points closer to them

our current balance is wrong, we know that and sb does. Two decent cm's and we wont be a million miles off

[aj2k77]

I'd like to see what the points totals were at the half way stage in previous seasons.

Taking the top 2 out of the equation, we currently have 5 teams on 40 points or more.  if they match that in the 2nd half of the season, there will be 5 on 80+ points.

Dec 31st 2015
                        P   PTS GD
1. Boro            23  49   +22
2. Derby          24  48    +22
3. Hull              24  44    +17
4. Brighton      24  44    +7
5. Burnley       24   41    +11
6. Ipswich       24   40    +4

Ipswich crumbled and only picked up 29 pts in the second half of the season. It's a very similar table to this seasons so far with the exception that 7th this season has 4 more points than last seasons did at this stage, I think we are going to need 78pts ish for promotion. 43pts in 22 games, it's a big ask, I think we will come up just short.

[Richard]

Interesting but where were Sheff Weds at that stage ? One team always makes a strong run to reach the play offs it could be us.

[Old Kodjia]

I'd like to see what the points totals were at the half way stage in previous seasons.

Taking the top 2 out of the equation, we currently have 5 teams on 40 points or more.  if they match that in the 2nd half of the season, there will be 5 on 80+ points.

Dec 31st 2015
                        P   PTS GD
1. Boro            23  49   +22
2. Derby          24  48    +22
3. Hull              24  44    +17
4. Brighton      24  44    +7
5. Burnley       24   41    +11
6. Ipswich       24   40    +4

Ipswich crumbled and only picked up 29 pts in the second half of the season. It's a very similar table to this seasons so far with the exception that 7th this season has 4 more points than last seasons did at this stage, I think we are going to need 78pts ish for promotion. 43pts in 22 games, it's a big ask, I think we will come up just short.

Cheers for that. It's interesting that 5 of the 6 at that stage ended up there at the end.  Currently outside of the top 6 are Derby, who I think are going to be very strong in the second half of the season.

It is a big ask but let's see what January brings.

[SoccerHQ]

I'd like to see what the points totals were at the half way stage in previous seasons.

Taking the top 2 out of the equation, we currently have 5 teams on 40 points or more.  if they match that in the 2nd half of the season, there will be 5 on 80+ points.

Interesting...how many points did 6th need last season.

Dec 31st 2015
                        P   PTS GD
1. Boro            23  49   +22
2. Derby          24  48    +22
3. Hull              24  44    +17
4. Brighton      24  44    +7
5. Burnley       24   41    +11
6. Ipswich       24   40    +4

Ipswich crumbled and only picked up 29 pts in the second half of the season. It's a very similar table to this seasons so far with the exception that 7th this season has 4 more points than last seasons did at this stage, I think we are going to need 78pts ish for promotion. 43pts in 22 games, it's a big ask, I think we will come up just short.

[aj2k77]

Interesting but where were Sheff Weds at that stage ? One team always makes a strong run to reach the play offs it could be us.

Sheff Wed were 7th on 36pts. 7th this season are Derby with 40pts, so it's looking like 6th this season will need a few more points than last season.

[Claretreal]

I really think once Brighton have taken the inevitable dip in form that they will then we should be challenging Newcastle for that top spot... it's easy, just win every game from now until the end of the season which we are capable of doing and then we will see who finishes on top of us and Newcastle.

Newcastle will probably win it as they have had that healthy head start but with a couple of good additions in January we have got a realistic chance of winning it.

[gpbarr]

Our terrible start has ruled out automatic spot - Newcastle wont be caught and are a cert for promotion, and one of the current top 4 will take the 2nd automatic spot - they will not all falter.

But we can (and will in my opinion) make the play offs - then its just turn up on the day, which with Bruce, I feel good about

[KevinGage]

I really think once Brighton have taken the inevitable dip in form that they will then we should be challenging Newcastle for that top spot... it's easy, just win every game from now until the end of the season which we are capable of doing and then we will see who finishes on top of us and Newcastle.

Newcastle will probably win it as they have had that healthy head start but with a couple of good additions in January we have got a realistic chance of winning it.

Unlikely. Given a straight choice between us and those giants of world football BC Loan Stars, everyone knows the best players will end up in Bordesley.
They all want to sample that 'special' atmosphere.

[IFWaters]

Statto here...so changes over the Christmas games, we still have one of the best defences in the league, and still have a misfiring and ineffective attack.

Average to get into the playoffs last 10 seasons is 74 points, but the highest its been is 78, which is the highest its been in 25 years since the Premier League started, so it would be very unusual to be 78 or higher.

At the moment Sheff Wednesday are on 42 points from 25 games, 1.68 points per game, on track for 77 points.

So, we have to aim for 78 points at the moment.

We are currently on 35 points with 21 games to go, so needing 43 more points ...over the 2 points a game magic target and very very hard to maintain over such a long period of time.

Since Bruce took charge we have got 25 points from 14 games so just under 1.8 points a game. That would get us to 73 points at the end of the season, good enough in half the seasons to get into the playoffs, but I doubt good enough this year.

[Old Kodjia]

Just noticed that Bristol City are playing Fleetwood today.  You would expect them to win that one,  meaning that our game scheduled for 28 Jan would be called off, due to their involvement in the cup.

I think that this may have a positive impact for us in three ways;  Firstly, it should mean that Kodjia will be back for the rescheduled game, secondly, it may mean that at least one, if not 2 January signings will start the rescheduled game (on the basis that tougher deals for better players sometimes happen at the end of the window.  Finally, I don't think it will do the squad harm to have a weekend off, after the hectic Xmas period, go away from it all for a few days and then return, recharged, ready for a 3 month relentless battle to secure 6th spot in the league.