Promotion Maths

[Toronto Villa]

6 points off the play offs again ffs. We can't seem to get closer despite winning

It didn't help losing two games recently. The second half of the season sides will fall off the pace as squad depth starts to take a toll. We'll lose players too of course but even with the African Cup we should have enough plus a manager who has been through it all successfully to start making some proper inroads from Jan onwards.

[Matt Collins]

We've only won two games against teams in the top 18. Both late winners after a silly mistake on their part (Fulham and reading)

We've played well in some other games against the top 18 - e.g. Brighton

But having just realised this (and having watched us), I'm now even less confident that we're really ready to go up this season. I'd want to replace the large majority of the current first team. Probably would only have confidence in amavi, Chester, kodjia from the team that started burton.

Not really looking forward to the Spurs game!

[Ads]

I love the way we talk down wins to put a negative spin on it.

We're the only team to have won at Reading who are 3rd. We were the better side throughout and they looked clueless all game. Their only chance was the penalty which came about because the midfield didn't join Bacuna in the press.

Only one side wanted to win the game, much like when Fulham (who have one of the best away records in the league) came to Villa Park to park the bus and got what they richly deserve.

[eamonn]

Are other clubs going to be hampered by the African Cup as we are?

[Ads]

Its only Ayew and Kodjia isn't it? Gestede is gash anyway and Adomah isn't in the squad.

[Old Kodjia]

We've only won two games against teams in the top 18. Both late winners after a silly mistake on their part (Fulham and reading)

We've played well in some other games against the top 18 - e.g. Brighton

But having just realised this (and having watched us), I'm now even less confident that we're really ready to go up this season. I'd want to replace the large majority of the current first team. Probably would only have confidence in amavi, Chester, kodjia from the team that started burton.

Not really looking forward to the Spurs game!

I'm a bit different.  We also lost games/points in the dying minutes due to silly mistakes.  I think we are currently not convincing but we are churning out results.  With additions in January and the more that the team play together, I have faith that we'll improve.

It wasn't so long ago that most people were claiming that there was little to fear in the division-Now it seems like most think that the opposite is the case.  We're playing badly but have the quality in the final third to take advantage, especially as teams tire.

I think that come Jaunary,  we're going to see a big improvement in midfield and I also have a suspicion that a new striker is going to join us as well.

I'm looking forward to the Spurs game just to see how we fare.  I know an FA cup tie is not an ideal yardstick but it will be interesting all the same, even if it is to expose our weaknesses.

I do accept that another year in the championship would probably be best long term but as a fan, I want promotion this season and am totally reliant on Xia's wallet to be bulky in the summer.  If we fail this season, then so be it, we look on the positive side and say that it was for the best.

[Old Kodjia]

Adomah has been left out of the ACN which is a boost.  It leaves only Kodjia & Ayew who will be absent in January.

[Richie]

My fear is despite the unbeaten home record, we haven't been convincing in any game other than Rotherham (who are clearly hopeless) and Forest who we should have beat by 3 or 4.

With better sides coming to Villa Park in the second half of the season, we are going to be truly tested, starting on Thursday.

For me, it's crucial that we start winning consistently on the road if the play offs are achievable, which considering the fact that the vast majority of away games left are against teams in the bottom half is doable.

[Matt Collins]

I fully admit it could go either way. We've only been really, really bad in about three games.

I'm sure we are capable of beating the better sides at home and I'm definitely sure we will pick up quite a few away wins

But we'll have to make it a regular occurrence and I'd like to see us actually play a half decent team and beat them by a couple of goals at least once this season!

[Bestmate]

The sixth place side are on course to reach 80 points which is exceptionally high for a 6th placed club. Lets hope there is some fall off as previously mentioned due to squad depth etc.

We need to maintain an average of 2 points a game to reach that 80 mark and under Bruce thats exactly what we've done so far with 24 from 12. What makes me hopeful is that with changes made quickly at the beginning of Jan, the team can be stronger and maintain that average to the end of the season playing better football to give us bigger cushions in games. One thing that is for certain is that Bruce has eeked out as many points as we can possibly deserve in those 12 matches, whereas points were thrown away for fun under the previous manager. Cautiously optimistic!!

[Old Kodjia]

I fully admit it could go either way. We've only been really, really bad in about three games.

I'm sure we are capable of beating the better sides at home and I'm definitely sure we will pick up quite a few away wins

But we'll have to make it a regular occurrence and I'd like to see us actually play a half decent team and beat them by a couple of goals at least once this season!

I can live with that Matt.  At this moment, it would be nice to beat anyone by a two goal margin.

I think that if anyone looked objectively, they would say that we need 2 seasons to regroup and rebuild.  Brighton certainly appear to be benefiting from last seasons experience and also the summer transfer window.

I think we all agree that if there is an opportunity to get promoted this season, then we should go for it.

I agree that we're quite a long way off at this stage both in terms of points and performance.  I'm optimistic that we will kick on in the second half of the season.  Having most of the top sides to play at home will be the proof of the pudding.

[Ads]

We're six points adrift without a midfield having taken 2 points game and won 7, without putting our disproportionate level.of attacking quality to full use.

We're the richest club in the league and the biggest too, with January coming. Considering the poor start, we're in a strong position to kick on.

[old man villa fan]

We're six points adrift without a midfield having taken 2 points game and won 7, without putting our disproportionate level.of attacking quality to full use.

We're the richest club in the league and the biggest too, with January coming. Considering the poor start, we're in a strong position to kick on.

Has Bruce got what it takes to improve the technical side of the team, either by tactically improving with the current players or bringing in the better technical players that will improve the team.

Currently, we need to improve 10-15% and by the time we are approaching the final half a dozen games, raising it another 10% or so.  If we reach the play-offs, we have to be playing significantly better than we are now and with a far higher level of confidence.

I would have expected Bruce to have got better performances out of the team by now.  I have the nagging feeling that something is not right with the players and there is not full commitment there.  It only takes one bad apple to offset the good work that Bruce has done.

[Ads]

We're averaging 2 points a game. The only way you could say something isn't right with the players is if you accept the past 5 years of shite as the norm and you're in a state of shock that we win at home and don't lose very often.

[old man villa fan]

There are players that are playing within themselves.  Performances of individuals fluctuate so much from match to match, which results in Bruce having to change the team constantly to maintain the points we are picking up.  It is good from a points return point of view but is disruptive from the point of view of building solid performances.  It is similar to cup match strategy of taking each match and doing just enough to get over the line.

We have a lot of new players in the club that need consistency which is not there.  I am a bit concerned that Bruce is using a shuffle the pack method of team selection to get the best team for any given match, rather than bringing in a few wild cards into the match day squad.