Promotion Maths

[Dave Cooper please]

The thing is, as turgid as it looks sometimes we are creating plenty of chances, 17 shots or something yesterday was it, seven of them on target. If we could only bloody finish a few of them we'd be flying. It still wouldn't be pretty to watch but if goals are going in no one ever really cares, look how quickly most Stripey fans have stopped moaning about Pulisball now they are scoring a few.

[Leicester_Villian]

One good thing is that 11 away games have seen us play 8 teams currently above us in the table ......... lets hope the wins flow against the teams below us now and the home form continues

[Richard E]

One more win before the end of this year and we will already have twice as many points as we managed in the whole of last season!

[AV82EC]

Our wins have been mainly against the bottom 6 with only Reading and Fulham above us beaten. Our losses have been to teams mainly just ahead of us which makes the draws against the likes of Forest, Barnsley and Brentford annoying. 4 of our 5 defeats have been well deserved.

We need a result against someone in the top 6 soon to help with confidence. Leeds at home could be that game.

[AV82EC]

Our wins have been mainly against the bottom 6 with only Reading and Fulham above us beaten. Our losses have been to teams mainly just ahead of us which makes the draws against the likes of Forest, Barnsley and Brentford annoying. 4 of our 5 defeats have been well deserved.

We need a result against someone in the top 6 soon to help with confidence. Leeds at home could be that game.

In fact, we have 11 away games left and only 3 of those are against teams above us. Our 13 home games see us play 9 teams currently above us. So looking on the bright side, it gets "easier" away but tougher at home. Hopefully our new found fortress Villa Park sees us through.

[Risso]

I'm pretty worried about what'll happen while Kodjia's off, especially if we don't boost our midfield before then. I reckon if we get a midfielder and don't lose any ground from where we currently are (six points off the playoffs) before he comes back, we should make it, but I don't feel great about making up any more ground than we currently have on our hands.

That's going to be a real problem. He's our only regular goal outlet, so lord knows what happens when he's away.

[Matt Collins]

There's two ways to look at our run of fixtures
a) we've got great home form even against good teams like Newcastle and Huddersfield we've not lost; and away form is improving with the fixtures getting easier
b) generally we've not actually played that well in most games. And the sort of performances that saw us win against Fulham, Blackburn etc aren't going to cut the mustard against top eight teams; while we might put together some sneaky wins away from home it won't be enough

I really don't know. Leeds is a good test

PS all references to "good sides" are relative. The quality in this league is worse than I expected

[footyskillz]

By January 31st we will have a good indication where we  are

[dave shelley]

By January 31st we will have a good indication where we  are

That depends on how much I have to drink over Christmas.

[SoccerHQ]

We're currently on target for 68 points.

Not enough for the play offs...the par for that will be 75 points I think.

It does show you though despite an abysmal start and despite many deficiencies still in the team with our style of player it's not that difficult to pick up points in this league and we just need a marginal improvement in the second half of the season to finish in the top 6.

[Toronto Villa]

surely the calculation should be done post RDM, and what Bruce has been able to do points per game. We had 10 points when Bruce came in after 11 games. Since, we have 24 points in 12, so 2 points a game. Based on that with 23 games to go, we should be on target for another 46, so a total of 80.

[SoccerHQ]

I included the RDM disaster zone as I wanted to show we were only 6-7 points off the top 6 if you include the grand total of him winning 1 game in the first 11.

So we need only marginal improvement from here to make top 6.....some good signings in January should get us over the line.

[Ads]

Yeah it's useful to include it as it shows despite how terrible the start was, here we are breathing down necks.

[damon loves JT]

We're currently on target for 68 points.

Not enough for the play offs...the par for that will be 75 points I think.

It does show you though despite an abysmal start and despite many deficiencies still in the team with our style of player it's not that difficult to pick up points in this league and we just need a marginal improvement in the second half of the season to finish in the top 6.

We're on target for 68 points if we have an identical run of eleven crap games in the second half of the season.

[Toronto Villa]

I included the RDM disaster zone as I wanted to show we were only 6-7 points off the top 6 if you include the grand total of him winning 1 game in the first 11.

So we need only marginal improvement from here to make top 6.....some good signings in January should get us over the line.

That's fine, but if you want forecast the balance of the season the next 23 games would only include metrics for Bruce. Yes of course, it's an interesting exercise to show that we are not far off despite that early season disaster but going forward if we maintain this pace we should be in the play off places come the end. In fact 80 points would have been good for 5th last season. And you could argue that as the season goes on and Bruce gets in a couple of players we should actually improve. So 85+ could be a mark that we can achieve.