Promotion Maths

[four fornicholl]

21 pts from 11 under Bruce equates to 42 pts from 22 if here from the start.
3rd in the table and threatening the top two.

[IFWaters]

A good result today but another lucky one. Bruce is obviously trying the combinations to make the attack click but still not there. Losing Kodija for the Afcon is an added complexity and all the time he needs to average 2 points a game to get us a chance in a four team knockout tournament. Everyone said this league was tough and it is proving so. Still, most exciting season for years.

[Matt Collins]

ISO think a diamond could be a good fit for us, ideally with a left footed midfielder as an addition

Would suit Jedinak
Kodjia could play the channels but not have to play back to goal
Would suit ayew and McCormack (not together)
Would suit grealish
Would suit amavi
Bacuna could play right back or right mid

But we would need one or maybe two midfielders.

[VillaAlways]

A good result today but another lucky one. Bruce is obviously trying the combinations to make the attack click but still not there. Losing Kodija for the Afcon is an added complexity and all the time he needs to average 2 points a game to get us a chance in a four team knockout tournament. Everyone said this league was tough and it is proving so. Still, most exciting season for years.

I wouldn't say it was a lucky win  we missed a penalty and had at least another 2 penalty shouts turned down.

[Old Kodjia]

A good result today but another lucky one. Bruce is obviously trying the combinations to make the attack click but still not there. Losing Kodija for the Afcon is an added complexity and all the time he needs to average 2 points a game to get us a chance in a four team knockout tournament. Everyone said this league was tough and it is proving so. Still, most exciting season for years.

I wouldn't say it was a lucky win  we missed a penalty and had at least another 2 penalty shouts turned down.

Definitely not unlucky.  "Unconvincing" is the word that I use to describe our performances of late.  I see teams like Derby hammering sides 3-0 and I just cannot see it with this Villa team.

For me, automatic promotion is now a step too far so I'm content with what we are doing to a certain extent.  I'm (forever the optimist) hoping that a couple of decent additions in January will see us kick on, hopefully finishing the season in form, which sets us up nicely for the play offs.

I'm very frustrated at the treatment of Tish but accept that something has clearly gone on that we are not privy to.  Other than that, I've no issues with Bruce.  We knew what we were getting when he joined and he hasn't disappointed.  we are steady for the play offs and provided we are clinging onto the coat tails of the top 6 come the turn of the year, I'd say that we will be good bets to qualify.

[Ads]

Win tomorrow and it's 21 points from 11 games. That's automatic promotion form.

Given that both Newcastle and Brighton are running at more than two points a game on what basis is 21 points from 11 games (even if we achieve that) automatic promotion form?

As it would leave you with 80 plus points and enough to go up automatically. I'm describing our current form. I think automatic promotion is gone as the poor start meant we had to be faultless.

[Ads]

Teams like Derby hammering QPR 1-0 after being poor all game? Teams like that?

[brentastonb6]

86.2 points is the average number required for second place in the previous 10 seasons , the maximum we can reach is 103 so we can drop 16 points and still go up..... five defeats and one draw in our next 24 games - we're a bloody shoe in for automatic promotion 

[Old Kodjia]

Teams like Derby hammering QPR 1-0 after being poor all game? Teams like that?

Yeah teams like Derby who had just won 6 on the trot, prior to yesterdays draw at Fulham.  We've managed a back to back win once all season.

[olaftab]

Derby along with us are the 2 lowest scoring teams in the top half. They have only scored 23 however defensively much better as they have only conceded 15.

[PeterWithesShin]

Derby won 7 in a row. And have won 3-0 (or better) twice all season. One was 3-0 at home to Rotherham, same as us, the other was 3-0 at home to Forest who we could have scored twelvety against.

What we do need to do is win 4 or 5 on the spin.

[PeterWithesShin]

Derby along with us are the 2 lowest scoring teams in the top half. They have only scored 23 however defensively much better as they have only conceded 15.

We have a pretty decent defence, 4th best. Only 3 sides have scored less though. It's why Kod going worries me so much, I don't think anyone apart from him has scored more than 1 goal in the last 12 games.

[passitsideways]

I'm pretty worried about what'll happen while Kodjia's off, especially if we don't boost our midfield before then. I reckon if we get a midfielder and don't lose any ground from where we currently are (six points off the playoffs) before he comes back, we should make it, but I don't feel great about making up any more ground than we currently have on our hands.

I think realistically, we should aim to beat most teams who come to VP (a draw here and there is acceptable, I suppose), win away at the poorer teams in the division, and then get draws at the remaining away fixtures.

[Ad@m]

Win tomorrow and it's 21 points from 11 games. That's automatic promotion form.

Given that both Newcastle and Brighton are running at more than two points a game on what basis is 21 points from 11 games (even if we achieve that) automatic promotion form?

As it would leave you with 80 plus points and enough to go up automatically. I'm describing our current form.

Even our current form isn't enough. If Newcastle and Brighton carry on their form so far this season they'll both be north of 90 points. Even if we were level points with them now we'd need more than 21 points from every 11 games to go up automatically.

[Ads]

Most seasons 84 points is enough to go up automatically.

We're currently gathering enough points that if extrapolated across a season, we'd be on course to hit 84-90 points.

We're not going to get that many points, RDM has seen to that, so it doesn't really matter what Newcastle or Brighton do, I'm merely using it as an indicator of good form and a sign that we will make the Play Offs.