This is the season...

[postal]

I reckon it will be another 2 seasons before we're relegated. Winter and Spring.

That raised laugh in a otherwise bad day!
 

[Ads]

It would have been nice if Sunderland had lost, but the only way we will get out of this is by putting some results together.

A win on Saturday is vital and it will likely close the gap on Newcastle to 2-3 points and may even provide a platform to get a result out of the next two games. 5 points from Spurs, Everton, Southampton away and Man City, Watford, Arsenal at home wouldn't be a bad return, especially if we can take 8 or 9 from the next four. That would leave us on 17 with 18 games to play to get another 21 points to give us the chance of staying up.

[DB]

A win....I have heard of those. Is it still 3 points?

[Nelson Lodge]

It is looking increasingly inevitable. Having been around for every relegation since 1958/59, there is a distinct feel of relegation about the club - you can almost smell it. The administration is an omnishambles; just look at the history of appointments of the wrong people in the wrong jobs. The squad seems to be the most disorganised and mismatched since the 60s and the removal of the Old Board. They were well meaning men but completely out of touch, as is Lerner. Don' forget that Ellis was chairmen for 2 of the relegation in '70 and '87, and it was he who sold out to Lerner.

Garde could be the right manager at the wrong time. Just like Joe Mercer in the early 60s, who was hamstrung and then sacked by the Old Board. Gets appointed as manger of Man City and wins the First Division tile.

Finally don't make the mistake of thinking it cannot get any worse than it is now. It can as the years 1966 to 1975 show only too well.

[Ads]

With all due respect to these "I can smell relegation coming" posts, they've been posted on here for the past five years.

While on the one hand its a record of how badly we've been playing for half a decade, on another it means you cannot smell a relegation. Its very poor at moment, but is not forlorn by any means.

We'll all feel a bit brighter about things on here come Saturday evening after we've beat Watford.

[Duncan Shaw]

The thing I'm clinging on to is that we are still only 5 points from safety even with how utterly shite we've been.  Yes if Newcastle and Sunderland pull out suprises like last night it won;t help our cause, but it's not a huge gap.  Leicester proved that a team can go on a run last year.  Saturday was the first time we've been hammered and hopefully it will have taught Remi a lot about his players.  We absolutely need to win on Saturday though, to kick start any hope of recovery.  I will be revising my optimism if we lose.

[Dave]

We absolutely need to win on Saturday though, to kick start any hope of recovery.  I will be revising my optimism if we lose.

I agree - a defeat on Saturday and I'll be joining the crowd thinking that we're going down.

Not because of any huge deficit in points that we need to make up, more that if we're not going to get points at home to Watford then where are we going to get points from?

[john e]

rubbish post fail

[Ads]

A fair position. I wont be throwing the towel in, but it would be surprising if we stayed up given the circumstances should we fail to beat Watford.

[Drummond]

Almost certainly.

[Quiet Lion]

I see you are peddling the " I only need to out run you not the tiger" argument but Sunderland or Newcastle etc may not be a player in the equation come end of the season. Points accumulated will be a big factor.

It's not an argument to peddle. It's basic maths. If we get more points than any other three teams, regardless of how many points that might be then we stay up.

Picking a random number and assuming that we're doomed if we get anything less than that and safe if we get anything more than that, ignoring the number of points other teams have is neither an argument, nor basic maths.

Basic maths is always valid so to win a game you have to score one more and position in the table is secured by having one more point than team below you however rather facile in this case. Stats and law of large numbers applies here and that states that we will have to be around about 36 points to stay up.

This is correct.

We will need around 36 points. 35 points and you have a 15.8% change of staying up, 36 points and you have a 38.1% chance of survival and 37 points 57.9% chance of staying up.

Explained well here  - http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/premier-league/11469196/Premier-League-relegation-battle-how-many-points-do-you-need-to-stay-up.html

Of course we could all hope for some statistical anomaly where this year 20 points keeps us up, but in the last 20 years that hasn't happened. So lets not pretend points totals don't matter here.

[PaulWinch again]

We absolutely need to win on Saturday though, to kick start any hope of recovery.  I will be revising my optimism if we lose.

I agree - a defeat on Saturday and I'll be joining the crowd thinking that we're going down.

Not because of any huge deficit in points that we need to make up, more that if we're not going to get points at home to Watford then where are we going to get points from?

Yep I'd say so, that's why Watford is virtually a must win; from a mindset view as much as anything.

[Dave]

Of course we could all hope for some statistical anomaly where this year 20 points keeps us up, but in the last 20 years that hasn't happened. So lets not pretend points totals don't matter here.

In the last 20 years the previous year's champions haven't been fifteenth in the league after a third of the season either, but here we are.

And nobody is pretending that points don't matter. But suggesting that whether other teams around us win or lose is going to have no impact on what we need to do in order to stay up is a complete fallacy.

[avfcpg]

We need to finish top of a mini league of 4. Points don't get you relegated, position does.
We'll be out of the bottom 3 by boxing day...or if not, very nearly there (yea my mates all laughed at me as well).
I still believe that we have a talented squad...they will need time and would have had more of it under the belt had Sherwood (and K-Mac) not picked woeful teams leaving out the new signings.
Man City was promising, Everton wasn't. He's had two games and I'd have taken a point beforehand, given our form.   

[Quiet Lion]

Of course we could all hope for some statistical anomaly where this year 20 points keeps us up, but in the last 20 years that hasn't happened. So lets not pretend points totals don't matter here.

In the last 20 years the previous year's champions haven't been fifteenth in the league after a third of the season either, but here we are.

And nobody is pretending that points don't matter. But suggesting that whether other teams around us win or lose is going to have no impact on what we need to do in order to stay up is a complete fallacy.

It is a good job no one is suggesting that then.

But as we don't know "whether other teams around us win or lose" a projection based on points totals that usually secure safety is not "Picking a random number and assuming that we're doomed if we get anything less than that" but the best tool we have at this point in the season is assessing the likelihood that we drop this season.