The Takeover Thread - Recon Group - NOW WITH NEW POLL

[conman]

Erm... getting back to the subject matter.

The resident 'ITK' guy on TBAR has called the takeover.

It's back to a Yank, announcement at seasons end (Monday), Pearson new manager.

No doubt it will be the exact opposite of all of the above.

That seems to go against the fact that Roberto Di Matteo is favourite with every bookies now... Think something might be afoot. Maybe TBAR have this one wrong...!

maybe the new owners are italian

Maybe the new owners just don't fancy Pearson. I suppose on the face of it, he's got a team out of the Championship, managed at the top and won impressive trophies. You can see the appeal, even if he wouldn't be my first choice.

exactly , we cant wait all summer for a takeover or for pearson , We need a manager next week Matteo has got the requirments for the job , I hope he is announced as manager on monday morning

[frank black]

Another day another TBAR ITK. It's like ground hog day isn't it.

[paul_e]

Due diligence at that level takes a while, especially when the parties are from different jurisdictions. I hope they get at least an outline agreement in place soon, so that the manager position can be sorted.

That's pretty much what I expect to see happen in the next 2 weeks.

Fingers crossed on that one.

They cannot leave it any longer any manager wise, but I suspect Pearson has the job should he want it.

I don't know why you'd think that Pearson is such a clear favourite that he just has to snap his fingers to get the job, the guy is a nutjob, I can think of plenty of reasons why a board wouldn't want to work with him.

maybe its because he's a massive odds on favourite with the bookies with everyone else 5/1 the field

I don't know how much they know, maybe not a lot but they are the ones putting their money where their mouth is and its going on Pearson
I think they will be right

As has been pointed out before, the market is so small that 10 people putting a tenner each will make a dramatic shift in the odds, the bookies probably aren't even looking at it, just letting a computer program determine the safest offering.  For me Pearson was linked at the start because he's available and has experience of the championship, a few people saw the sense in that and put money on him and not much more money has been put down so things just stay as they are.  Until today when, as has been mentioned, Di Matteo suddenly jumped from around 50/1 up to being the favourite, does that mean anything or does it mean that someone decided he'd fit the bill and has thrown a bit of money at it?  Again it really won't take a lot of cash to see a shift like this so it could be nothing.

If a few people don't mind wasting a couple of quid you could very easily replicate it - http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/aston-villa/next-permanent-manager - Uwe Rosler is available at 100/1 on betfair for example, £1-2 each with 5-6 people putting that same bet on in a matter of 10-15 minutes and I guarantee his odds would drop massively and he'd start appearing on other sites as well, then a few more people would see that and get money on him whilst there was still a decent profit to be had and within a couple of hours you could have him as favourite.

[oswald funkletrumpet]

Can we stop talking about somebody who referred to us as simple minded and fickle and instead talk about the takeover?

we've had the chinese , and the american VC , who is it today

it must be the consortium of bimingham business men

i think after them it will be a sultan and after him the hair bear bunch

[john e]

Due diligence at that level takes a while, especially when the parties are from different jurisdictions. I hope they get at least an outline agreement in place soon, so that the manager position can be sorted.

That's pretty much what I expect to see happen in the next 2 weeks.

Fingers crossed on that one.

They cannot leave it any longer any manager wise, but I suspect Pearson has the job should he want it.

I don't know why you'd think that Pearson is such a clear favourite that he just has to snap his fingers to get the job, the guy is a nutjob, I can think of plenty of reasons why a board wouldn't want to work with him.

maybe its because he's a massive odds on favourite with the bookies with everyone else 5/1 the field

I don't know how much they know, maybe not a lot but they are the ones putting their money where their mouth is and its going on Pearson
I think they will be right

As has been pointed out before, the market is so small that 10 people putting a tenner each will make a dramatic shift in the odds, the bookies probably aren't even looking at it, just letting a computer program determine the safest offering.  For me Pearson was linked at the start because he's available and has experience of the championship, a few people saw the sense in that and put money on him and not much more money has been put down so things just stay as they are.  Until today when, as has been mentioned, Di Matteo suddenly jumped from around 50/1 up to being the favourite, does that mean anything or does it mean that someone decided he'd fit the bill and has thrown a bit of money at it?  Again it really won't take a lot of cash to see a shift like this so it could be nothing.

If a few people don't mind wasting a couple of quid you could very easily replicate it - http://www.oddschecker.com/football/football-specials/aston-villa/next-permanent-manager - Uwe Rosler is available at 100/1 on betfair for example, £1-2 each with 5-6 people putting that same bet on in a matter of 10-15 minutes and I guarantee his odds would drop massively and he'd start appearing on other sites as well, then a few more people would see that and get money on him whilst there was still a decent profit to be had and within a couple of hours you could have him as favourite.

I put a £100 quid on a tip I had for Laurent Blanc once at 200/1

Didn't make no difference on betfair

I went to GA after that

[john e]

Also betfair alone have taken 45k on the next Villa manager
I know that's not massive in betting book terms but all this 'a few teners here and there will make a difference' is a load of cods

[paul_e]

One bet probably wouldn't trigger anything because they'd see that as easy profits but a handful close together would make them cautious that they were missing a rumour and respond accordingly.  I'm just going by logic on this but I'm sure we have people on here with experience of the gambling industry who can either confirm or tell me I'm talking nonsense.

[pauliewalnuts]

It will take more than tenners but the general concept is correct.

The 45k betfair have taken is what has been matched in the exchange which is one thing, the amount taken by bookies direct from punters in their markets is another thing.

[PeterWithe]

Well if TBAR have 'called it' it's as good as done.

[Sexual Ealing]

Going back to the Freeman fella, and apologies if it's been covered already, but could there be something in the fact that it was the Evening Standard that ran with the story. I get that the fact that the investment vehicle was set up last year and hasn't filed its accounts suggests that this was something from last year, but unless the journalist has heard something concrete then it'd be a strange story for a purely London paper to run. Why would the Standard be so keen to cover a relegated Birmingham club's potential takeover that they'd run with a story that was so easily dismissable unless they could stand it up in some way? [/TBAR]

[kippaxvilla2]

Di Matteo what the absolute fcuk?!

[PeterWithe]

Did he win the European Cup with Chelsea?

I'm no expert but I reckon we are going to need a big stick bloke more than a big carrot bloke.

[four fornicholl]

Did he win the European Cup with Chelsea?

I'm no expert but I reckon we are going to need a big stick bloke more than a big carrot bloke.

You been in the showers with him then?

[cdward]

For some reason, i found this the most interesting fact about Di Matteo on Wiki.

Personal life
As of 2010, Di Matteo was living in Leamington Spa, Warwickshire...

Over the last few years, the hype and excitement of a new manager is all wearing a bit thin.

[Villa in Denmark]

Another day another TBAR ITK. It's like ground hog day isn't it.

Not at all.

They're neither as funny as Bill Murray, or as good looking as 1993 vintage Andie McDowell.

However they are as annoying as Ned Ryerson and probably deserving of the full Phil Connors treatment.