I can guarantee you that "next Aston Villa manager" is a tiny, tiny market, on which insignificant sums will be wagered.
If you look at oddschecker tomorrow and you see that Mike Bassett has moved in from 20/1 to 3/1, it doesn't mean that the bookies are always on the case and really think that Mike Bassett is going to be our new manager, it means that enough money has gone on Mike Basset to reduce the price, and therefore manage the liability of the bookie.
With it being such a small market, it takes next to no money on a manager to trigger a big movement in the odds. What the bookies "think" doesn't come in to it. Most bookies these days have hardly any actual traders working there, it is all software driven. There is no bloke sat there with a pencil behind his ear, studying the Racing Post anymore, there isn't anyone keeping an eye on the next Villa manager market.
And it is entirely normal to shut markets like this down overnight, too, so when people say "OMG! Bet365 have suspended bets on Mike Bassett!" it isn't because they think he's got the job, it is because they've all gone home for the night and they don't want anything to leak overnight when they're not there and find someone sticking stupid money on him because they either are, or are related to Mike Bassett.
