Is this what transition looks like?

[Ad@m]

Last season 10th place at this time saw you pretty safe from relegation, this season it doesn't.

Afraid it didn't.

You said Stoke were 10th at this stage last year?  Well I know quite a few Stoke fans and when we went up there and beat them last year with Lowts' wonder goal most of those Stoke fans were convinced they were going down.

If there was one thing they didn't feel it was 'pretty safe from relegation'.

Stoke dropped three places and finished 13th, pretty safe from relegation I'd say.

We finished 1 point behind them last season, so on that basis, we were also pretty safe from relegation.  Given we've got more points now than we had last year and you've told us Stoke were safe this time last year, I'd just kick back, relax and enjoy the rest of the season and its glorious mid-table mediocrity!!

[pauliewalnuts]

Poring over stats or points from various points of last season and comparing them to this doesn't really tell the whole story.

If we use Saturday as a departure point to start playing the way we can (and did sometimes last year) then we can maybe have a better second half of the season. That's cause for optimism, but we really have to do it, and we need to start winning more games.

At the same time, though, if we are going to take a great deal from points on the board, we can't ignore our points return from the last ten (or five, or any figure which you reflects current form) matches, which has been pretty atrocious.

Carry on like that for very much longer and we are on target to be in a relegation scrap.

Now is a good time to build on a decent performance, we have got to do it, no excuses.

[Monty]

There has been progress, but it's progress like going from drowning to treading water is progress. We've still seen some extraordinarily bad results this season, and the football is still an extremely long way away from 'compelling'. Besides which, Lambert's tactics and approach seem to have got, if anything, worse - being midtable is fine, but midtable and nihilistically boring is just awful, pointless.

We played alright in the second half against Arsenal and brilliantly in the first half against Liverpool. I wasn't ecstatic over the reversion to boofiness in the second half of the latter game, especially given how well the 'passing the ball' approach had worked in the first half, but hey, it was better. Lambert just needs to show that he doesn't just get passing football and good performances from them one game in five, as if by luck - he needs to show that he can help the team produce it regularly.

[Dribbler]

1 win in the last 9 including the cup game is horrific it has to be said.  We're 6 points off bottom, in another season that could see us in 19th position.  But there is a good team in there somewhere.  The next few weeks will be very interesting.

in another season all of those other teams would be below us as well because they have less points. You cannot use the "another season" argument because it has no bearing on the current one.

I don't think it's a hard concept to understand, we are 6 points from a relegation spot, but unusually, considering this small points difference, we are 10th. Most years in the league such a points difference would have us much closer to, or even in, the relegation spots. The comparison is perfectly acceptable (and so has a 'bearing on' the current discussion) as it shows that this season is an unusual season as things stand with all of the teams up to 10th being so close and still taking points off of each other and even those teams above. It's an indication then that our 'lofty position' may be less down to our own improvement and more due to the nature of the league this season.

[Ad@m]

Poring over stats or points from various points of last season and comparing them to this doesn't really tell the whole story.

If we use Saturday as a departure point to start playing the way we can (and did sometimes last year) then we can maybe have a better second half of the season. That's cause for optimism, but we really have to do it, and we need to start winning more games.

At the same time, though, if we are going to take a great deal from points on the board, we can't ignore our points return from the last ten (or five, or any figure which you reflects current form) matches, which has been pretty atrocious.

Carry on like that for very much longer and we are on target to be in a relegation scrap.

Now is a good time to build on a decent performance, we have got to do it, no excuses.

But looking at points return from certain spells of fixtures in isolation means nothing as it doesn't consider who we've played in those fixtures.  Our last 10 league games look as follows in my book:

Sunderland (H) - 0-0 - Below par result
Southampton (A) - 2-3 - Above par
Fulham (A) - 2-0 - Below par
Man Utd (H) - 0-3 - Par
Stoke (A) - 2-1 - Below par
Palace (H) - 0-1 - Below par
Swansea (H) - 1-1 - Par
Sunderland (A) - 0-1 - Above par
Arsenal (H) - 1-2 - Par
Liverpool (A) - 2-2 - Above par

So by my reckoning, during the last 10 games where its been said we've been on a horrible run of form, with key players out injured, compared to what we'd have expected before those games I reckon we did better than expected in 3 of them, in line with expectation in 3 and below expectation in 4.  So all in all, not the most horrendous return its made out to be.

We've got a decent run of games now and should be aiming for at least 11 points from the next 6 matches (winning our 3 home games and drawing 2 of the three away).  If we do this we'll be on 35 points at the start of March and will be virtually home and hosed.

But if we do what we did when we had our last good run of games (over Christmas) it'll make the rest of March look frightening and the end of the season arse-clenchingly painful.

[paul_e]

The problem I have with that is, if you look at our league placing this year it's been pretty consistently in 10-13 since about the 6th game, even with a bad run of form.  An upturn in our form will be very welcome and will make things much safer but I still believe that our form would have to dip a lot further for us to end up getting really drawn in to the battle.

The main reason for that is that there are 3 teams that are significantly better than the rest of the league, and who will all likely finish with over 80 points.  The last time that happened was 08/09 where Newcastle went down in 18th place with 34 points and Hull and Sunderland survived with 35 and 36 respectively.  The top sides this year are actually better off than they were that year so the bottom half is even more concentrated than it was that season.  There also wasn't a clear gap between the top half and bottom half as there is this season, which again will only serve to further lower the points totals for the bottom sides.

[pauliewalnuts]

Poring over stats or points from various points of last season and comparing them to this doesn't really tell the whole story.

If we use Saturday as a departure point to start playing the way we can (and did sometimes last year) then we can maybe have a better second half of the season. That's cause for optimism, but we really have to do it, and we need to start winning more games.

At the same time, though, if we are going to take a great deal from points on the board, we can't ignore our points return from the last ten (or five, or any figure which you reflects current form) matches, which has been pretty atrocious.

Carry on like that for very much longer and we are on target to be in a relegation scrap.

Now is a good time to build on a decent performance, we have got to do it, no excuses.

But looking at points return from certain spells of fixtures in isolation means nothing as it doesn't consider who we've played in those fixtures.  Our last 10 league games look as follows in my book:

Sunderland (H) - 0-0 - Below par result
Southampton (A) - 2-3 - Above par
Fulham (A) - 2-0 - Below par
Man Utd (H) - 0-3 - Par
Stoke (A) - 2-1 - Below par
Palace (H) - 0-1 - Below par
Swansea (H) - 1-1 - Par
Sunderland (A) - 0-1 - Above par
Arsenal (H) - 1-2 - Par
Liverpool (A) - 2-2 - Above par

So by my reckoning, during the last 10 games where its been said we've been on a horrible run of form, with key players out injured, compared to what we'd have expected before those games I reckon we did better than expected in 3 of them, in line with expectation in 3 and below expectation in 4.  So all in all, not the most horrendous return its made out to be.

We've got a decent run of games now and should be aiming for at least 11 points from the next 6 matches (winning our 3 home games and drawing 2 of the three away).  If we do this we'll be on 35 points at the start of March and will be virtually home and hosed.

But if we do what we did when we had our last good run of games (over Christmas) it'll make the rest of March look frightening and the end of the season arse-clenchingly painful.

It's not just a certain run if fixtures, though, it is the most recent run if fixtures, and therefore is significantly more relevant.

Nine points from 30 is abysmal, and absolutely a relegation points return, there's no way of avoiding the fact that we must improve on this.

[pauliewalnuts]

Fucking ipad changing of to if ^^^^^

[Ad@m]

We played alright in the second half against Arsenal and brilliantly in the first half against Liverpool. I wasn't ecstatic over the reversion to boofiness in the second half of the latter game, especially given how well the 'passing the ball' approach had worked in the first half, but hey, it was better. Lambert just needs to show that he doesn't just get passing football and good performances from them one game in five, as if by luck - he needs to show that he can help the team produce it regularly.

See I saw the Liverpool game completely differently.

I thought Lambert did his research brilliantly and set up our tactics accordingly by telling Andi to sit on Gerrard and stop him playing when they had the ball whilst telling Gabby to stretch their defence when we had the ball.

2nd half things changed as Rodgers put Lucas in Gerrard's place and pushed him forward where Andi couldn't sensibly follow and Gabby went off injured so we lost that outlet.  Unfortunately whereas Liverpool have the squad to change things about, we don't.

[pauliewalnuts]

I thought the Liverpool game was good, full stop.

First half we showed adventure and creativity. Second half we showed resolve and nous.

It was certainly good by comparison to most other games this season.

[Toronto Villa]

1 win in the last 9 including the cup game is horrific it has to be said.  We're 6 points off bottom, in another season that could see us in 19th position.  But there is a good team in there somewhere.  The next few weeks will be very interesting.

in another season all of those other teams would be below us as well because they have less points. You cannot use the "another season" argument because it has no bearing on the current one.

I don't think it's a hard concept to understand, we are 6 points from a relegation spot, but unusually, considering this small points difference, we are 10th. Most years in the league such a points difference would have us much closer to, or even in, the relegation spots. The comparison is perfectly acceptable (and so has a 'bearing on' the current discussion) as it shows that this season is an unusual season as things stand with all of the teams up to 10th being so close and still taking points off of each other and even those teams above. It's an indication then that our 'lofty position' may be less down to our own improvement and more due to the nature of the league this season.

Every season is unique from the last. What happened last year and how teams lined up with points and where they would be this year is good for discussion and debate but ultimately means nothing at all. All that matters this season as it relates to those teams around us in a similar boat is that we are better off than them. And if you want to draw a comparison to last season then last seasom we were lower in the table compared to our "peer group" so to speak. So either we have improved albeit marginally or the others are worse. I'd prefer to look at it from the first perspective and consider us doing well but could do much better.

[not3bad]

It has been observed that Paul Lambert sides generally get stronger during the run in.  Therefore I am optimistic.

[hartman_1982]

We have also had Vlaar out injured and Benteke not fit. I expect us to not be involved this year at all. Is all very well saying we are only 6 points above the relegation zone but 8 teams have to over take us in the run in and judging by the previous 22 games it will take the teams in the bottom three 7 games to make up a 6 point gap.

[ez]

It's a funny one. Our good performances are few, our poor performances are many. We don't have as many points on the board as I would have hoped and yet we are the 10th best club in the league.

[Rudy Can't Fail]

Last season 10th place at this time saw you pretty safe from relegation, this season it doesn't.

Afraid it didn't.

You said Stoke were 10th at this stage last year?  Well I know quite a few Stoke fans and when we went up there and beat them last year with Lowts' wonder goal most of those Stoke fans were convinced they were going down.

If there was one thing they didn't feel it was 'pretty safe from relegation'.

Stoke dropped three places and finished 13th, pretty safe from relegation I'd say.

We finished 1 point behind them last season, so on that basis, we were also pretty safe from relegation.  Given we've got more points now than we had last year and you've told us Stoke were safe this time last year, I'd just kick back, relax and enjoy the rest of the season and its glorious mid-table mediocrity!!

Ignoring the additional points Stoke had last season, Lambert has certainly manages to get us playing like them.