How many points will keep us up?

[Ads]

I cannot see Sunderland having enough to break down Chelsea.

They way Rafa is going, it is likely we will see Ba and Mata/Oscar/Hazard playing on Saturday, with the Spanish Balaban on Thursday instead.

[PeterWithesShin]

Looking at his quotes today it seems he is looking to play an adventurous style - Not the time of season to change your way of play - by the time they get used to it it could be all over.

When John Gregory arrived in February 1998 he got us attacking straight away and results picked up. We sometimes forget these are professional footballers. They are quite capable of change. We just have to hope you are right.

We had the likes of yorke and collymore , they have danny graham!

collymore hardly played, but we did have Savo and Joachim in addition to Yorke. Even Joachim scored more than Graham.

[eastie]

Looking at his quotes today it seems he is looking to play an adventurous style - Not the time of season to change your way of play - by the time they get used to it it could be all over.

When John Gregory arrived in February 1998 he got us attacking straight away and results picked up. We sometimes forget these are professional footballers. They are quite capable of change. We just have to hope you are right.

We had the likes of yorke and collymore , they have danny graham!

collymore hardly played, but we did have Savo and Joachim in addition to Yorke. Even Joachim scored more than Graham.

True but what a reaction he got from collymore in his first game as manager.
Sunderland havent got the fire power to play attacking football.

[neo_Villan]

If Di Canio can get the best out of the players then they will stay up IMO.

Really? There squad looks very average to me...if that.

Average yes. In the sense that there are no real stand-out players (other then the Goalkeeper) but still good enough (on paper at least) to survive the drop.

[neo_Villan]

Have they got the players to be attacking?

Without Fletcher, where do the goals come from?

Connor Wickham perhaps? About time someone gave him a chance. God knows best why MON didn't rate him.

[mattjpa]

No. bearing in mind its generally accepted that reading and qpr are down, we are now hot favourites for the drop. Ive read articles from two pundits tipping us for the drop (Neither were Robbie Savage).

The bookies very rarely get it wrong. For the last couple of weeks and up to half time against pool ive started to believe again but im getting a striking suspicion that my claret and blue tinted specs are stopping me seeing clearly. Maybe we only got a couple of standard victories against cannon fodder. Maybe were not as good as we hope we are and maybe those above us are playing better than im seeing. H&V usually calms the nerves because there are loads of people on here saying what I hope is true - that we will get out of this. But im starting to think the majority on here are blinded by the claret and blue as well.

[eastie]

No. bearing in mind its generally accepted that reading and qpr are down, we are now hot favourites for the drop. Ive read articles from two pundits tipping us for the drop (Neither were Robbie Savage).

The bookies very rarely get it wrong. For the last couple of weeks and up to half time against pool ive started to believe again but im getting a striking suspicion that my claret and blue tinted specs are stopping me seeing clearly. Maybe we only got a couple of standard victories against cannon fodder. Maybe were not as good as we hope we are and maybe those above us are playing better than im seeing. H&V usually calms the nerves because there are loads of people on here saying what I hope is true - that we will get out of this. But im starting to think the majority on here are blinded by the claret and blue as well.

Me may be slight favourites for the drop but not hot favourites.

[mattjpa]

Southampton 20/1
Stoke 16/1
Norwich 10/1
Newcastle 12/1
Sunderland 7/4
Wigan 9/4
Villa 6/4

Granted not hot favourites but hot when taken in comparison to the 7 teams touted as being in the mix. They are essentially saying its between us, Wigan and Sunderland which is hard to argue with and like I say, the bookies dont often get it wrong. When I look at it like that, I see one team bang in form who are experienced in getting out of this situation who i fancy to pull clear. That leaves us and Sunderland.
I cant see us getting any surprise points to be completely honest, I think we can all reasonably predict what our final total will be. So looking at it that way, our fate will be decided by an Italian, Facist nutjob and his ability to motivate a talented, decent squad into playing for their futures.
I knew we were taking a gamble with our club policy but wasnt expecting this much of a gamble....

[PeterWithesShin]

Talented decent squad?

2      DF   Phil Bardsley
3      DF   Danny Rose (on loan from Tottenham)
4      MF   Alfred N'Diaye
5      DF   Wes Brown
6      MF   Lee Cattermole (captain)
7      MF   Sebastian Larsson
8      MF   Craig Gardner
9      FW   Danny Graham
10      FW   Connor Wickham
12      DF   Matthew Kilgallon
14      MF   Jack Colback
15      MF   David Vaughan
16      DF   John O'Shea (vice-captain)
18      DF   Kader Mangane (on loan from Al-Hilal)
19      DF   Titus Bramble
20      GK   Keiren Westwood
21      MF   Adam Johnson
22      GK   Simon Mignolet
23      MF   James McClean
24      DF   Carlos Cuéllar
26      FW   Steven Fletcher
28      MF   Stéphane Sessègnon
30      FW   Mikael Mandron
33      FW   Ryan Noble
42      DF   John Egan

[adrenachrome]

We are 6/5 at Ladbrokes now, behind Sunderland at 15/8. It would be interesting to see the the volume and value of the bets which have been placed.

[Des Little]

I'm hearing on the grapevine that Sunderland will be fielding 11 right wingers on Saturday

[Mister E]

Southampton 20/1
Stoke 16/1
Norwich 10/1
Newcastle 12/1
Sunderland 7/4
Wigan 9/4
Villa 6/4

Well, it's certianly true that bookies seem able to read the P'ship table and are offering odds in the order in which the table is currently assembled. Fair enough. There's four points between Villa and the top of that relegation guest-list.
The challenge is to look at the final games each team is going to play; and then factor in an 'allowance' for those teams with forward momentum (Wigan and Southampton).

Doing this would probably not result in the order you've shown above. I still think we'd be in a parlous position because of our goals difference and inabilty to close out games. But I think the odds would be much closer than here.
If I were a betting man, I'd have a flutter on Stoke and Norwich to be in the final-day struggle. Why?

Both are struggling to get points. Stoke have games against ManUre, QPR, Southampton (away, last game), Norwich, Sunderland and Tottenham.
Norwich have to play Swansea, Arsenal, Citeh, WBA and Reading (as well as us and Stoke).

It's tight as a duck's arse at the bottom of the table and this weekend's results may change everything; as will next weekend's ... and  on!

It's a painful experience for all concerned.

[Mister E]

Having just done the BBC predictor thingy as objectively as possible (given the existence of claret / blue tinted galsses), I arrived with Sunderland taking the third slot on only 35 points; with us on 40 (at 13th!). More to do with my negative opinion of those clubs near the bottom than massive confidence in us.

Oh, were it that clear-cut and simple!

[Irish villain]

Having just done the BBC predictor thingy as objectively as possible (given the existence of claret / blue tinted galsses), I arrived with Sunderland taking the third slot on only 35 points; with us on 40 (at 13th!). More to do with my negative opinion of those clubs near the bottom than massive confidence in us.

Oh, were it that clear-cut and simple!

That's the thing I can see us getting to a minimum of 37 points before we play Wigan. (And we should all remember that the Wigan game isn't lost yet, we all seem to have written it off, including me. In fact I hadn't factored the Wigan game into any of my forecasts, I wanted us safe before then as if it was simply a write off). I can't see Sunderland getting to that figure before the last day. And, in the worst case scenario, if it does come down to the last day we are only playing Wigan. Escapologists they might be but they are still only fucking Wigan and if we need a result there we can get it with a loud, packed away end behind us.

Obviously in an idea world we will go into that game on 40 points looking to get a win to put some respectability to our final points tally. I'm only saying it is a winnable game if it comes down to us or Sunderland on the last day.

[paul_e]

Southampton 20/1
Stoke 16/1
Norwich 10/1
Newcastle 12/1
Sunderland 7/4
Wigan 9/4
Villa 6/4

Granted not hot favourites but hot when taken in comparison to the 7 teams touted as being in the mix. They are essentially saying its between us, Wigan and Sunderland which is hard to argue with and like I say, the bookies dont often get it wrong. When I look at it like that, I see one team bang in form who are experienced in getting out of this situation who i fancy to pull clear. That leaves us and Sunderland.
I cant see us getting any surprise points to be completely honest, I think we can all reasonably predict what our final total will be. So looking at it that way, our fate will be decided by an Italian, Facist nutjob and his ability to motivate a talented, decent squad into playing for their futures.
I knew we were taking a gamble with our club policy but wasnt expecting this much of a gamble....

Do you mean bang in form wigan who have 10 points from the last 6 as opposed to our terrible return of 9 in 6?

There last 6:

v Southampton (H) 2 - 2
v Chelsea (A) 4 - 1   
v Reading (A) 0 - 3   
v Liverpool (H) 0 - 4
v Newcastle (H) 2 - 1   
v Norwich (H)  1 - 0

Our last 6:

v West Ham (H) 2 - 1
v Arsenal (A) 2 - 1   
v Man City (H) 0 - 1
v Reading (A) 1 - 2
v QPR (H) 3 - 2   
v Liverpool (H) 1 - 2

I'd argue we've had a much tougher set of games and not been much behind them in terms of points, on top of that we've been within a goal of all 3 defeats so not much damage compared to a couple of big beatings for them.

I just don't get why so many people are willing to ignore our own decent form but laud similar form from other sides.  There's been similar ignoring of other sides poor form (Norwich and Stoke have been piss poor in 2013).

QPR and Reading are gone, they'd both need to get 5 wins in 7 to stand a chance and there is no way that's happening.  Therefore you have 7 teams with a spread of 4 points between them playing for the last spot.  Southampton look like they're doing enough to pull clear so it's down to 6.  Stoke, Newcastle, Norwich and Sunderland are 4 of the bottom 6 in the form table, we're comfortably midtable in it along with Wigan.  Looking at the games to go we have a nicer run in than most in that we play 4 of the 5 teams we're battling with which means it's genuinely in our own hands, Sunderland for example have a terrible set of fixtures, and Stoke have a nasty set of home games to go with the worst away record in the league.

We're bookies favourites because we're in the spot currently and they're playing it safe, it doesn't really mean that much this late in the season.