How many points will keep us up?

[pedro25]

I have just done that BBC predictor for the first time. I had us, Southampton and Sunderland all staying up on 38. QPR going down with 36, Wigan 33 and Reading rock bottom.

Wigan have won 3 of heir last 4 games by more than 3 goals, i think they could finish stronger than many are predicting.

I had very similar.  I had Southampton(38), us(39) and Sunderland(40) all staying up. QPR going down with 30, Wigan 33 and Reading rock bottom(24).

I'd be really surprised if there is a five point gap between 17th and 18th at the end of the season.

[Mister E]

We haven't been doing reasonably well. We beat a very poor West Ham and an even worse Reading. If teams open us up as easily as Reading seemed to we'll get a beating. We did okay at Arsenal but again conceded late and were poor against a relatively poor Man City. As the pressure intensifies I think the less experienced players will crumble. if we win on Saturday I'll do the predictions again and will probably be a little more positive. As it is i've gone from 100% certain of relelgation to 90% after Saturday.

Well, I think we have, but that's just a difference of opinion.  However, it still leaves us in the position where your prediction of 32 points represents a total collapse in form from both our recent games (12th in the form table) and our overall return since the season began.

The lowest points-score for a team surviving relegation in the EPL is 34. So let's assume that this is an absolute baseline.
I don't think 35 points will be enough, because a few teams around are showing signs of going on a bit of run (even if others - like S'land and S'ton - are faltering).

I think that in order to generate real momentum we need to beat QPR - and doing so will hopefully take the fire out of their mini-revival as well. Winning on Saturday would lead to possible wins against Sunderland and Fulham at VP, and points against 'The Mighty Reds YNWA', Chelsea, Norwich, Wigan and Stoke: 41 points for the season and probable safety.

Not beating QPR would be likely to leave us needing to win at Norwich and Stoke at a minimum (since I think our home form will tank even further from its current poor state) and gaining more draws ... difficult to predict what will happen.
Even if Reading become stranded - which seems likely - they will still potentially take points off QPR, Fulham, S'ton and Norwich; all of which teams are potential R candidates.

If we keep Vlaar and Benteke fit (the former for his calming influence; the latter for his goals), and Westie, Sylla and Delph continue to develop and perform, we stand a chance of staying up. But it's all too fluid to predict.

[SoccerHQ]

We haven't been doing reasonably well. We beat a very poor West Ham and an even worse Reading. If teams open us up as easily as Reading seemed to we'll get a beating. We did okay at Arsenal but again conceded late and were poor against a relatively poor Man City. As the pressure intensifies I think the less experienced players will crumble. if we win on Saturday I'll do the predictions again and will probably be a little more positive. As it is i've gone from 100% certain of relelgation to 90% after Saturday.

In the run in Sunderland, QPR, Fulham and Norwich are all more or less Reading or West Ham level.

Unless we lose to QPR and think it's christmas again we'll comfortably get more than 5 points in the run in.

[PaulWinch again]

The simple answer to the title of this thread is no.

[MoetVillan]

The simple answer is yes (if three other teams end up with fewer points)

[N'ZMAV]

The real answer is no-one knows at the moment.

[Tokyo Sexwhale]

I think we need 38 points.

3 wins, 2 draws or equivalent.

If we can beat QPR, Fulham and Sunderland at home (realistically our best chances of wins), that would take us to 36

Then 2 points out of: Liverpool (H), Stoke, Norwich and Wigan (all A)

Anything out of Man U and Chelsea as a bonus.

Also just checked and the FA Cup Final is the week before the last Premier League game.  Hopefully Wigan are in the Final, and get beaten in extra time, to make them knackered and dispirited for our game.

[PaulWinch again]

When was the last time a team survived on 35? I can't see it this year, we need more.

[neo_Villan]

Suprised this is still being debated. No way will 35 points be enough. 38 minimum for me. But we might need 39 due to our inferior GD.

[mr woo]

Regardless of points, I'd say if we finish above QPR, we'll be safe. That's why saturdays game is a must-win.

[Irish villain]

We need a minimum of three wins don't we? WIgan are always dangerous in this situation. QPR and Sunderland are the biggest games we have left.

[eastie]

Regardless of points, I'd say if we finish above QPR, we'll be safe. That's why saturdays game is a must-win.

I think three wins and 2 draws will be enough giving us 38 - I also think both villa and qpr will stay up .

[neo_Villan]

We need a minimum of three wins don't we? WIgan are always dangerous in this situation. QPR and Sunderland are the biggest games we have left.

Fulham are never too clever on the road and usually lose at VP. Norwich shouldn't be feared either. I'd say I'm actually more confident for those two then I am for the QPR/Sunderland games.

[SoccerHQ]

When was the last time a team survived on 35? I can't see it this year, we need more.

I believe West Ham survived with 34 in 09/10, bottom 3 didn't get above 30 points that year.

Last year QPR survived on 37 didn't they?

[Marlon From Bearwood]

I think we need 38 points.

3 wins, 2 draws or equivalent.

If we can beat QPR, Fulham and Sunderland at home (realistically our best chances of wins), that would take us to 36

Then 2 points out of: Liverpool (H), Stoke, Norwich and Wigan (all A)

Anything out of Man U and Chelsea as a bonus.

Also just checked and the FA Cup Final is the week before the last Premier League game.  Hopefully Wigan are in the Final, and get beaten in extra time, to make them knackered and dispirited for our game.

Wigan would also have to play the league game they would've played on Cup final weekend during the following midweek.