The Plot An Escape From Relegation Thread.....

[KevinGage]

Strange feeling last night, like others on here I felt subdued mainly because of Wigans win at the stripey filth, the two massive wins to take us to 40 points should have lead to a party atmosphere on here yet most of us are still shitting ourselves, I think this is due to us thinking that Chelsea will routinely roll us over plus that we will bottle it against Wigan who are so much more experienced in this situation, maybe we all should believe in our players a bit more to get the job done as although the team have been under immense pressure in recent months their strength of character along with massively improved form has been amazing.

You are of course right, but football has this nasty habit of kicking a Villa fan in the nuts for shits and giggles as often as it can. So after looking like we are well and truly round the corner, and the team are maturing, and the best players want to stay and build for once, I just have this nagging feeling Uncle Dave will be smiling drowning in Champaign claiming Woberto to be a latter day Shankley on the pitch at the end of the final game, and we will be wringing our hands thinking of what might have been, having thought 2 games before we were safe. West Ham went on 42 a couple of years ago. 40 points means nothing at the moment. Look how many it took to stay up in the Championship this season, its mad.

I am probably, and most likely wrong, but to think we are safe and the job is done would bite us squarely in the arse.

I get that Ozz.

But if Wigan's late winner was a sickner for us yesterday, ours must have been for them too. 

To get themselves into a winning position and the gap being closed down to two points (with a game in hand) only for it to go out again to five.  With their run of games coming up fatigue, injuries and so forth will almost inevitably be play a part.   If Martinez can work around all that and keeps them up from this point on, I might bow to Whelan's decleration that he is one of the best in the business.

One thing we must take from this whole scenario is we can't have a season like this again.  This is our third season in a row now of being involved at the arse end of the table.  Hang around there long enough and you will eventually go down.  Which is what I think will do for Wigan this time.

[eastie]

I think I'm right in saying that in order for us to go into the Wigan game with even mild concern, ALL of the following things have to happen:

Wigan beat Swansea
Norwich beat West Brom
Newcastle beat QPR
Chelsea beat us

Odds of 16-1 on that lot in an accumulator. So if you're certain that it'll come down to some sort of exciting last-day shoot out, then you might as well clean up. If you want to throw in Wigan winning at Arsenal as well, to give us real concern then you can get 156-1 on that.

And then we'll probably draw with Wigan and stay up anyway. Win-win.

Very well put. But, in fact, those are all pretty likely so 16-1 is short odds given the variables. Whichever way I look at likely results, Villa will need at least a draw at Wigan.

Before Chelsea play us they have to play Manu away and Spurs at home, then 4 days after they have the Europa Cup Final against Benfica. If ever there was a good time to play them, this is it.

If they win today and against spurs it would virtually guarantee spurs can't catch them too.

[eastie]

Strange feeling last night, like others on here I felt subdued mainly because of Wigans win at the stripey filth, the two massive wins to take us to 40 points should have lead to a party atmosphere on here yet most of us are still shitting ourselves, I think this is due to us thinking that Chelsea will routinely roll us over plus that we will bottle it against Wigan who are so much more experienced in this situation, maybe we all should believe in our players a bit more to get the job done as although the team have been under immense pressure in recent months their strength of character along with massively improved form has been amazing.

You are of course right, but football has this nasty habit of kicking a Villa fan in the nuts for shits and giggles as often as it can. So after looking like we are well and truly round the corner, and the team are maturing, and the best players want to stay and build for once, I just have this nagging feeling Uncle Dave will be smiling drowning in Champaign claiming Woberto to be a latter day Shankley on the pitch at the end of the final game, and we will be wringing our hands thinking of what might have been, having thought 2 games before we were safe. West Ham went on 42 a couple of years ago. 40 points means nothing at the moment. Look how many it took to stay up in the Championship this season, its mad.

I am probably, and most likely wrong, but to think we are safe and the job is done would bite us squarely in the arse.

I get that Ozz.

But if Wigan's late winner was a sickner for us yesterday, ours must have been for them too. 

To get themselves into a winning position and the gap being closed down to two points (with a game in hand) only for it to go out again to five.  With their run of games coming up fatigue, injuries and so forth will almost inevitably be play a part.   If Martinez can work around all that and keeps them up from this point on, I might bow to Whelan's decleration that he is one of the best in the business.

One thing we must take from this whole scenario is we can't have a season like this again.  This is our third season in a row now of being involved at the arse end of the table.  Hang around there long enough and you will eventually go down.  Which is what I think will do for Wigan this time.

Yes but wigan know if they beat swansea they will go above both newcastle and Norwich with 2 to play .

[paulcomben]

Good points about Chelsea. I'll be screaming for them at OT from 4. Otherwise, I have just realised that we want Stoke to win their 3 remaining games. 2 teams close to Villa plus Spurs, who would then have more need to beat Sunderland

[midnite]

I think I'm right in saying that in order for us to go into the Wigan game with even mild concern, ALL of the following things have to happen:

Wigan beat Swansea
Norwich beat West Brom
Newcastle beat QPR
Chelsea beat us

Odds of 16-1 on that lot in an accumulator. So if you're certain that it'll come down to some sort of exciting last-day shoot out, then you might as well clean up. If you want to throw in Wigan winning at Arsenal as well, to give us real concern then you can get 156-1 on that.

And then we'll probably draw with Wigan and stay up anyway. Win-win.

Very well put. But, in fact, those are all pretty likely so 16-1 is short odds given the variables. Whichever way I look at likely results, Villa will need at least a draw at Wigan.

Before Chelsea play us they have to play Manu away and Spurs at home, then 4 days after they have the Europa Cup Final against Benfica. If ever there was a good time to play them, this is it.

If Chelsea can get a result today and hopefully the champs league places are sorted by Saturday then I think Chelsea are there for the taking. They'll want to win the cup. Players will not want to pick up injuries. Rafa will also rest players.

[midnite]

Seems to be a depleted United side too this afternoon

[Matt Collins]

If stoke beat spurs then there's a risk they'll be out of it by the time they play Sunderland. Spurs have a nasty habit of occasionally losing 1-0 at home to teams like Sunderland.

If we can get a point v Chelsea I'm very confident we'll be fine. If we can't, then I do think its hard to see any other situation than going to Wigan needing a draw to be sure of staying up. I think that's a hugely dangerous position to be in.

We do strangely have a very good record at home to Chelsea, while their away form is poor of late (no doubt in part because they've had some tough games recently).

But the thought of mata and hazard up against Bennett and lichaj doesn't really bear thinking about.

[kippaxvilla2]

Lowton will be fit for next week.

[Lastfootstamper]

If stoke beat spurs

??
Two home wins since the turn of the year, both by a single-goal, against Reading and Norwich. If this is what it's come to, can I be the first to predict that, next season, everybody will beat everybody else to leave us bottom on no points.

But the thought of mata and hazard up against Bennett and lichaj doesn't really bear thinking about.

Maybe, but I bet our front 3 can't wait to get stuck into Ivanovic and Luiz

[olaftab]

I just can't see Wigan failing to beat Swansea.

I can so don't worry.

[SoccerHQ]

Must admit my heart sank a bit when after watching how poor a team Norwich were yesterday, I saw like Newcastle they have a get out of jail free card with WBA at home next week.

I maintain even if we lose to Chelsea we'll be safe if either Newcastle or Norwich fail to win next week as I can't see Newcastle beating Arsenal who'll need something for top 4 and no chance Norwich will get anything at Man. City.

[Matt Collins]

Oh I agree. If Norwich or Newcastle fail to win their next game I can't see them finishing above us.

Same applies for Wigan, obviously.

I guess if you put it that way - will all three poor sides win their next game - it starts to feel more unlikely. Just not unlikely enough to put me at ease quite yet! The teams they're playing are 19th, 18th and 16th in the form table.

 Would love to think Wigan won't beat Swansea, but I don't see it. Swansea will be just as tired as Wigan, have nothing to play for and their goal threat is out. I also think Newcastle will win. So very much hoping west brom can turn Norwich over.

[SoccerHQ]

Swansea don't concede a shed load so a 1-1 is possible but yeah they haven't scored much recently and Michu has gone on a siesta.

Again if Swansea don't win on Tuesday I reckon that will be us safe as I think they'll lose at the emirates 3 days after the cup final and so the max they could get them would be 39 which could still well keep them up of course.

[not3bad]

Strange feeling last night, like others on here I felt subdued mainly because of Wigans win at the stripey filth, the two massive wins to take us to 40 points should have lead to a party atmosphere on here yet most of us are still shitting ourselves, I think this is due to us thinking that Chelsea will routinely roll us over plus that we will bottle it against Wigan who are so much more experienced in this situation, maybe we all should believe in our players a bit more to get the job done as although the team have been under immense pressure in recent months their strength of character along with massively improved form has been amazing.

You are of course right, but football has this nasty habit of kicking a Villa fan in the nuts for shits and giggles as often as it can. So after looking like we are well and truly round the corner, and the team are maturing, and the best players want to stay and build for once, I just have this nagging feeling Uncle Dave will be smiling drowning in Champaign claiming Woberto to be a latter day Shankley on the pitch at the end of the final game, and we will be wringing our hands thinking of what might have been, having thought 2 games before we were safe. West Ham went on 42 a couple of years ago. 40 points means nothing at the moment. Look how many it took to stay up in the Championship this season, its mad.

I am probably, and most likely wrong, but to think we are safe and the job is done would bite us squarely in the arse.

I get that Ozz.

But if Wigan's late winner was a sickner for us yesterday, ours must have been for them too. 

To get themselves into a winning position and the gap being closed down to two points (with a game in hand) only for it to go out again to five.  With their run of games coming up fatigue, injuries and so forth will almost inevitably be play a part.   If Martinez can work around all that and keeps them up from this point on, I might bow to Whelan's decleration that he is one of the best in the business.

One thing we must take from this whole scenario is we can't have a season like this again.  This is our third season in a row now of being involved at the arse end of the table.  Hang around there long enough and you will eventually go down.  Which is what I think will do for Wigan this time.

Yes but wigan know if they beat swansea they will go above both newcastle and Norwich with 2 to play .

Won't change the fact that they'll be knackered by the time they play us, and we'll be just as motivated as they are.

[berneboy]

Strange feeling last night, like others on here I felt subdued mainly because of Wigan's win at the stripey filth, the two massive wins to take us to 40 points should have lead to a party atmosphere on here yet most of us are still shitting ourselves,

You are of course right, but football has this nasty habit of kicking a Villa fan in the nuts for shits and giggles as often as it can. So after looking like we are well and truly round the corner, and the team are maturing, and the best players want to stay and build for once, I just have this nagging feeling Uncle Dave will be smiling drowning in Champaign claiming Woberto to be a latter day Shankley on the pitch at the end of the final game, and we will be wringing our hands thinking of what might have been, having thought 2 games before we were safe. West Ham went on 42 a couple of years ago. 40 points means nothing at the moment.

I am probably, and most likely wrong, but to think we are safe and the job is done would bite us squarely in the arse.

It's ten years since West Ham went down with 42 points. No team has been down with 40 points since, I read today.