The Plot An Escape From Relegation Thread.....

[Jimbo]

Absolutely right, Ozzjim, the job isn't done yet but we're well on course. I also think it'll go down to the last day, and like in the Championship, there will be numerous twists and turns during the final 90 minutes.

[Steve kirk]

Strange feeling last night, like others on here I felt subdued mainly because of Wigans win at the stripey filth, the two massive wins to take us to 40 points should have lead to a party atmosphere on here yet most of us are still shitting ourselves, I think this is due to us thinking that Chelsea will routinely roll us over plus that we will bottle it against Wigan who are so much more experienced in this situation, maybe we all should believe in our players a bit more to get the job done as although the team have been under immense pressure in recent months their strength of character along with massively improved form has been amazing.

You are of course right, but football has this nasty habit of kicking a Villa fan in the nuts for shits and giggles as often as it can. So after looking like we are well and truly round the corner, and the team are maturing, and the best players want to stay and build for once, I just have this nagging feeling Uncle Dave will be smiling drowning in Champaign claiming Woberto to be a latter day Shankley on the pitch at the end of the final game, and we will be wringing our hands thinking of what might have been, having thought 2 games before we were safe. West Ham went on 42 a couple of years ago. 40 points means nothing at the moment. Look how many it took to stay up in the Championship this season, its mad.

I am probably, and most likely wrong, but to think we are safe and the job is done would bite us squarely in the arse.

What you say makes a lot of sense and because of my age I have had more than my share of heartbreak following Villa, I haven't said we are safe but that maybe this bunch of players who have been on such a rollercoaster this season may just be a bit stronger than we thought and might get the job done without things going for us in other matches, lets all hope and pray that it's true.

[ozzjim]

If we can be ahead of Norwich going into the last game we should be safe.

If we above Newcastle, Sunderland or Norwich I will fancy us to be safe. Below and its going to be a hell of a game with Wigan.

[andrew08]

All the above is true but last Saturday morning before the Sunderland game we were three points ahead of Wigan but they had a game in hand and a better goal difference as did Newcastle and Norwich.

Its been a great week.

[Lastfootstamper]

Without checking, but surely there must be precedent in probably every season ever whereby at least one of the teams occupying 14th-18th fails to pick up more than one point in their final two games? They can't all become world-beaters overnight. As others have said, they're down there for a reason. Us and wigan are the only ones putting meaningful points on the board. A Stoke win tomorrow leaves sunderland below us. We'll be fine.

*he says slightly nervously*

[Steve R]

I'd love to see those predictions where all the teams below us get the results they need. Was it a worst case scenario generator?

I like the way that teams get three points each when they play each other.

[Villafirst]

I think at worst we'll only need to draw at Wigan om the final day. Hopefully it won't get that close. I still think Wigan will falter with so many high pressure matches in a short space of time. Wembley will knacker them out. I hope it goes to ET and Man City win in the 120th minute!!

[Ads]

Did the predictor thing again. Had us saying up on 41 points above Wigan. Trouble is this was predicated on us drawing with Wigan in the last match. If we lost that we would be down.

Your predictions have hardly been accurate lately though, have they?

Lately used in the loosest terms surely? This is the 3rd season un a row he has being saying we're definitely going down.

[Matt Collins]

I just can't see Wigan failing to beat Swansea. There aren't many teams you'd rather play at this point.

And I think we'll lose v Chelsea too. I think next weekend may be a bit like the man utd weekend.we lose and watch other teams overtake us. So Wigan will have the chance to overtake us on the final day I think.

I'm pretty sure it will go down to the last game for us. If so, we've got to hope that as many other teams as possible are below us going into that game.

[Lastfootstamper]

I think at worst we'll only need to draw at Wigan om the final day. Hopefully it won't get that close. I still think Wigan will falter with so many high pressure matches in a short space of time. Wembley will knacker them out. I hope it goes to ET and Man City win in the 120th minute!!

Is there any other ground where we've picked up 14 points in our last six visits?

[Dave]

I think I'm right in saying that in order for us to go into the Wigan game with even mild concern, ALL of the following things have to happen:

Wigan beat Swansea
Norwich beat West Brom
Newcastle beat QPR
Chelsea beat us

Odds of 16-1 on that lot in an accumulator. So if you're certain that it'll come down to some sort of exciting last-day shoot out, then you might as well clean up. If you want to throw in Wigan winning at Arsenal as well, to give us real concern then you can get 156-1 on that.

And then we'll probably draw with Wigan and stay up anyway. Win-win.

[stubbsyandy]

I think its about time we beat one of the top five

[Villafirst]

Agree, even  QPR won at the Bridge! Benteke hat-trick next Saturday!

[paulcomben]

I think I'm right in saying that in order for us to go into the Wigan game with even mild concern, ALL of the following things have to happen:

Wigan beat Swansea
Norwich beat West Brom
Newcastle beat QPR
Chelsea beat us

Odds of 16-1 on that lot in an accumulator. So if you're certain that it'll come down to some sort of exciting last-day shoot out, then you might as well clean up. If you want to throw in Wigan winning at Arsenal as well, to give us real concern then you can get 156-1 on that.

And then we'll probably draw with Wigan and stay up anyway. Win-win.

Very well put. But, in fact, those are all pretty likely so 16-1 is short odds given the variables. Whichever way I look at likely results, Villa will need at least a draw at Wigan.

[Chris Smith]

I think I'm right in saying that in order for us to go into the Wigan game with even mild concern, ALL of the following things have to happen:

Wigan beat Swansea
Norwich beat West Brom
Newcastle beat QPR
Chelsea beat us

Odds of 16-1 on that lot in an accumulator. So if you're certain that it'll come down to some sort of exciting last-day shoot out, then you might as well clean up. If you want to throw in Wigan winning at Arsenal as well, to give us real concern then you can get 156-1 on that.

And then we'll probably draw with Wigan and stay up anyway. Win-win.

Very well put. But, in fact, those are all pretty likely so 16-1 is short odds given the variables. Whichever way I look at likely results, Villa will need at least a draw at Wigan.

Before Chelsea play us they have to play Manu away and Spurs at home, then 4 days after they have the Europa Cup Final against Benfica. If ever there was a good time to play them, this is it.