Relegation Watch

[Percy McCarthy]

Ah last year, when I was cheering every Bolton victory like they were my own beloved Villa, as they achieved the seemingly impossible and hauled back Alex McLeish's points advantage.

Those were the days. :-(

[maidstonevillain]

Ah last year, when I was cheering every Bolton victory like they were my own beloved Villa, as they achieved the seemingly impossible and hauled back Alex McLeish's points advantage.

Those were the days. :-(

The difference this year is that they don't have to do the seemingly impossible. Just the reasonably conceivable.

[David_Nab]

Bolton is the most important game left but Spurs is not far behind ,they are awful at
the moment and us ,blackburn and Bolton have to play them so we need to at least match the results they get from them.

Wba I don't fancy us at all and Norwich have had 2 bad results hopefully that is them running out of steam though I'm sure Lambert will want to finish the season at home not losing

Roll on tomorrow and a win !

[john e]

The divide between safety and the drop is a very fine line.

Imagine if Weiman hadn't scrambled the 93rd  minute Fulham goal and if the Sunderland 'goal' had been allowed. Then see where we are. In theory other teams have too much to do to catch us but that was said about SHA at this stage last year.

Tomorrow is bloody critical.

so 5 points clear at this stage of the season is a 'very fine line' ?

[Rigadon]

The divide between safety and the drop is a very fine line.

Imagine if Weiman hadn't scrambled the 93rd  minute Fulham goal and if the Sunderland 'goal' had been allowed. Then see where we are. In theory other teams have too much to do to catch us but that was said about SHA at this stage last year.

Tomorrow is bloody critical.

so 5 points clear at this stage of the season is a 'very fine line' ?

I'd say it is.   

[Brend'Watkins]

The divide between safety and the drop is a very fine line.

Imagine if Weiman hadn't scrambled the 93rd  minute Fulham goal and if the Sunderland 'goal' had been allowed. Then see where we are. In theory other teams have too much to do to catch us but that was said about SHA at this stage last year.

Tomorrow is bloody critical.

so 5 points clear at this stage of the season is a 'very fine line' ?

I'd say it is.   

It's effectively 6 in any case.  Blackburn need to get those from 9 possible remaining.  Bolton from 15 remaining which includes playing us.  Assuming we get a win they will then have to get 10 from the remaining 12 to overhaul us.

In both cases it would mean both teams showing their best form of the season.  This is not an impossible feat but extremely unlikely to happen as form suggests. 

It's not a fine line, it's a big advantage over the bottom two and a healthy advantage over one of the two above... QPR, given their run in.

[Simba]

I hope you are right. I think you are. Still say we are in danger though.

But the 'fine line' comment was after a played a bit of "what if" and realised how close things could have been if Fulham had been a draw and Sunderland goal was given. So yes, forgive the bleeding obvious hindsight comment but it is possible we stay up because of a very, very late scrambled goal and a strikers arm being given offside...
That is a fine line.

[Concrete John]

The divide between safety and the drop is a very fine line.

Imagine if Weiman hadn't scrambled the 93rd  minute Fulham goal and if the Sunderland 'goal' had been allowed. Then see where we are. In theory other teams have too much to do to catch us but that was said about SHA at this stage last year.

Tomorrow is bloody critical.

That works both ways.

Imagine if Bent hadn't been injured.  Imagine if we'd gotten the point we (at least!) deserved at home to Arsenal.  Imagine if Herd hadn't seen red against WBA.

Any season for any side is full of them, but the reality is we have more points on the board than the other sides, and that's a big advantage.

[DeKuip]

I hope you are right. I think you are. Still say we are in danger though.

But the 'fine line' comment was after a played a bit of "what if" and realised how close things could have been if Fulham had been a draw and Sunderland goal was given. So yes, forgive the bleeding obvious hindsight comment but it is possible we stay up because of a very, very late scrambled goal and a strikers arm being given offside...
That is a fine line.

Over 38 games every team will have scored or conceded late scrambled goals and been on the right and wrong side of poor decisions. All 20 teams will finish in exactly the position they deserve to finish in. The only time you could argue otherwise is when a team has been docked points for going into administration.
If we stay up it will be because, after we've all played each other home and away, it'll be proved that there are at least three teams who have been worse than us over the full season.

[James]

I hope you are right. I think you are. Still say we are in danger though.

But the 'fine line' comment was after a played a bit of "what if" and realised how close things could have been if Fulham had been a draw and Sunderland goal was given. So yes, forgive the bleeding obvious hindsight comment but it is possible we stay up because of a very, very late scrambled goal and a strikers arm being given offside...
That is a fine line.

Over 38 games every team will have scored or conceded late scrambled goals and been on the right and wrong side of poor decisions. All 20 teams will finish in exactly the position they deserve to finish in. The only time you could argue otherwise is when a team has been docked points for going into administration.
If we stay up it will be because, after we've all played each other home and away, it'll be proved that there are at least three teams who have been worse than us over the full season.

And that, sadly, will be the only reason! 

[john e]

i reckon there is more chance of us losing every game and still staying up than actually getting relegated

[Risso]

i reckon there is more chance of us losing every game and still staying up than actually getting relegated

I don't think we'll go down, but if we lose our next two, and Bolton, Wigan and QPR all win at the weekend, we'll be 17th and level on points with Bolton.  Now that scenario is highly unlikely, but it also suggests that it's not as cut and dried as we think, and if anybody can ensure that we get dragged into it a bit deeper, it's McLeish.

[Summers]

I can't see us winning any of our remaining games. I just hope the teams below us stay as shit as we currently are. But they appear to have fight.

[Rigadon]

If Bolton beat us tomorrow they're just as likely to avoid going down as us.  Blackburn need only win 2 games to have more points than us.  Yes, they've been poor for much of the season, but 2 wins from 3 isn't beyond the realms of future reality. 

I'd say that certainly we're more likely to stay up than go down, but it's not as outrageously impossible as some seem to be making out.  Somebody was talking about betting their house on relegation, that's mad, but so would doing the same thing on us surviving

Shit innit.   

[Risso]

Here's the latest form table:

Click

If that's repeated over the remaining games for each team, we'll finish behind Wigan and Bolton, and stay up ahead of QPR on goal difference.