Are we mathematically safe? - Yes

[Edvard Remberg]

If Man U lose their title, we are in trouble..

How ?  Arsenal or Liverpool wont win it instead.

ManU's last two games are against Blackburn and then Blackpool. If they remain unbeaten we are mathematically, stick-on, guaranteed not to be relegated.

On a similar note, if Man City beat Spurs tonight/tomorrow, and Liverpool beat Spurs on Sunday, our final game with the scousers will have no bearing whatsoever on their league position - 5th, regardless of what result they get at VP.

Would they really  relegate Houllier in a game that means absolutely nothing to them?

Say what you like about this season, there have always been new straws to clutch at.

There are a few scenarios were we would go down , but ManU getting points in their games would as you said, keep us safe.

[Rigadon]

No, it's OK.  Nigel says the boys have played some great football and have done well to keep us up.  We must be safe or he wouldn't say so.  Also, Gary McAllister thinks we are safe too because he hopes or us to play with a smile on our faces against Arsenal and Liverpool now the pressure is off...........

I think everyone at the club expects this squad to be broken up and the players have played like it for large parts of the season.

Relegation is unlikely, but we aren't safe yet and I hope the soundbites don't reflect what's being said at the training ground.  I expect blood and thunder at the Emirates and against Liverpool in the last game. 

[usav]

We would have to lose both games - very possible I know - but have the other teams win both of theirs and have a goal difference turn around of -9. 

[Rigadon]

It's very improbable.  I suppose I just wish they wouldn't talk like it's impossible (until it's impossible).

[Exeter 77]

I think if both Blackburn (v Man United) and Blackpool (v Bolton) both fail to win on Saturday we are safe even if Wolves beat Sunderland. Blackpool would have 36 or 37 points with 1 game left with Blackburn on 39 or 40 and Wolves, providing they win on 40. With Wolves playing Blackburn on the last day two of the three can no longer catch us.

[avfcpg]

Wolves v Blackburn could be a real humdinger. Straight shoot out to see who stays up maybe? No doubt Sky will put Man Yoo on as the main game so we can see them parade the trophy though...

[Brian Taylor]

We should not be here discussing this/ A month, six weeks ago we had people suggesting we'd be contesting the likes of tottenham and Citeh for a place in top six. Now we are hoping the also rans lose and we don't get ten put past us by Arse and Pool. get real..someone has fucked up and it wasn't MON..
6th wasn't good enough but wrestling with relegation makes life more interesting..get real!!
If we end up less than 4th next season we deserve to be related this one..
We are a polite disaster now.

[Mazrim]

I can't decide if you're mentally ill or not Brian.

[Andy_Lochhead_in_the_air]

I can't decide if you're mentally ill or not Brian.

Glad I am not the only one struggling on occasion to work out Brians position on certain debates.

[ktvillan]

No, it's OK.  Nigel says the boys have played some great football and have done well to keep us up.  We must be safe or he wouldn't say so.  Also, Gary McAllister thinks we are safe too because he hopes or us to play with a smile on our faces against Arsenal and Liverpool now the pressure is off...........

It's this kind of thinking that just confirms my opinion that British footballers and managers are generally a bit thick.  They are just assuming the other teams won't get the necessary points and they are probably right, but why be complacent?   

People keep on about the big gap in goal difference but it's a bit of an optical illusion.  Even two 1-0 defeats for us coupled with two 1-0 wins for others would close the gap by four.  If we get spanked 3 or 4-0 at the Emirates, the GD situation will not look quite so rosy.  I'd rather the players and management didn't relax just yet.

 

[damon loves JT]

Say what you like about this season, there have always been new straws to clutch at.

A brilliant assessment. I salute you

[Brian Taylor]

Maybe should forget writing in middle of night?
I hate the idea of being stressed out by a team who are paid as much as our's is.
The fans pay the wages and are justified in complaining about current position when if pound for pound we should be vying for a much higher position in the PL.
We had five years or so of reasonable development that may, or may not, have led to a better level of achievement. We will never know now. The last year has been a nightmare and the current managerial situation is dire and looks like we will have some new faces next season, managerial and players.
The optimist in me wants to see top 4 and the realist constantly sees something less so.
Bloodlust was in the air amongst Villa fans because MON underachieved. GH ended up in hospital due to the pressure and is generally considered inadequate and not fit for purpose. This is not normal behaviour in my opinion. He needed more time. Not enough points so up against the wall MF!
We do not have the Citeh money have and so rely on astute purchases and the slower development of quality footballers rather than instant genius at £100k per week.
MON believed he could 'bring on' players. We had a few that did not perform and he suffered for it. GH splashed on Bent and he looks good for now. He may go for a profit in summer see. He does seem to move on when the money is right. New ethics in modern money driven game? He will stay if he gets the right deal but if a 'big' club decide they can pay for him and his wages he may well go. I diverge.
So maybe watching the Villa for as long as I have has disturbed my equilibrium?
Overall bar the European cup there has been a shortage of achievement for such a prestigious club in recent years. The fervour is tested again and again. MoN era; it felyt better but only for a while. If there is no change next season the continuing to follow the Villa becomes an increasingly wasteful endeavour. The rewards emotionally are nil and induce a state of dysphoria rather than euphoria that exists when you are in the top end of table. I was getting used to feeling not so bad about being a Villa fan again up to last year. Now I am less so and exposed to malign criticism I can't defend with two games coming up that most people are accepting as losses as forgone conclsuion. grite at least all the otehrs are also unlikely to win and then there is GD..I don't want to be in this state of mind. I want to thrash Arse and Pool but I know the likely outcome. It is just so sad and despondant.
I made the mistake of expressing my preference the other night amongst a group of 'other' local supporters. One baggies supporter came out with a stream of unrelenting vitriol when he heard me say I was a Villa supported. I know the guy quite well, he is a 'professional' type but he turned into a scary villa hating monster. I wasn't the only Villa fan there but there was no answer to his drink fuelled abuse. I decided he was mentally disturbed also but had good reason to be but I had no answer for his accusations only vague recollections and warm memories of banter amongst local rivals in the past. Now it is just naked hatred. I shan't be talking to the fellow again unless it is to recall an incident from years ago when a villa player was badly injured, in derby game, and I could not recall the name of baggies perpetrator. He wanted to know the guy's name so he could use it as a weapon and brag to his mates about it. He may have been just a teenager back then. I was trying to tell him how or why divisions occur and friendly rivalry has gone out of game. He wanted to replicate the incident and was emphatic in his unpleasantness.
Not sure where that leaves me. It is not football as I know it. I want achievemenst of the field to outweigh any other factor; as it used to be. Now we can't beat Wigan and are hoping we don't get 'caught'; desperate stuff my mind can't cope with after all these years.
I want success, simply, as all fans do. Our present placing comes at a heavy price and makes it difficult to brush off the harsh tackles you get in social circumstances, when in previous years they could be brusquely rebuffed with reference to past achievements. Where are those achievements now? Are they coming next season?  or is it the season after or five years time again? Because if they don't then the baggies supporter gets his wish and we get relegated or consigned to the also ran category.
It won't happen of course, we will not get relegated. We will probably get another season of mediocrity which is just not good enough and baggies fans will mock us pitilessly and we will not be capable of retorting civilly without being tempted to resort to, at very least, verbal violence as this guy was on the verge  of.
What do I want? I want success.
What have we had in past 30 years..not a lot.
The future is all there is. The past is dead and gone and fading away by the season. It is all about next season and I am sure I will be there again in high expectation. That is what being a football fan is about. this year I am a bit down about it all and listening to crap from the opposition does not help matters.
Maybe it is years of unrequited rewards that does your head in? another season of striving for a small percentage of SFA.
I am not sure if I want to be a Villa fan if all I get for my years of devotion is abuse from an aggressive foul mouthed middleclass Royalist down the pub. Not what it is about. Not what it is a bout at all.

[Mazrim]

Mathematically Safe sounds like some shit government initiative to teach Chavs how to count.

"Yes Chardonnay, if you gave the shopkeeper a ten pounds note you'd have 20 B&H, a three litre bottle of White Lightning and £1.17 change. You are Mathematically safe, isnt it? Respect!"

[VillaAlways]

I've given up worrying about this now.If they roll over and piss away our goal difference in the next 2 games and manage to go down from here,then quite frankly we will deserve everything we get

[Markerton]

Can someone sum up what Brian just said? I really can't be bothered to read it all.


OP, no, we're not mathematically safe but unless every team below us wins both their games (which I'm sure is impossible?) then we'll be just dandy.