Will we win the Premier League

[algy]

I’m in the win and a loss camp. Feel Chelsea is always a weird one for us, we’re either really good or really poor with not a lot in between. Let’s hope it’s one of the really good performances down there. I’d prefer to be going to Arsenal with either a win or a draw under our belts and then park the bus at the Emirates.

I'm in the win both camp to be honest.  If we want to win the league, which - putting aside how that is - we do, then we have to keep winning, game after game after game.  We've done more than enough over the past 3 or so seasons to prove that we can beat anyone except Crystal Palace - home or away.  It's now time to do that consistently.

[paul_e]

I'd be ok with a draw at Arsenal but a win at Chelsea would be massive.

But would you take two draws or a win and a loss? I'd be tempted by the latter if it meant wining at Arsenal, but would be happy with two draws.

Avoiding defeat is the most important thing in games against the teams around us so I'd accept 2 draws easier than a win and a loss, despite it being fewer points.

[Drummond]

It depends who we consider our main rivals I guess. I think Man City are most likely to win the league. Two draws means we only get 2 points and we drop 4 though we don't lose any ground on either. Arse or Chelsea. A win and a loss means we drop 3 points, lose out to one of the teams we've played, and gain a good amount on the other. So, if it's a choice, a win against Arsenal and loss to Chelsea is preferable to a draw against both. A win against Chelsea and loss to Arsenal, means the pack can close on us a bit and the top 2 will stretch the advantage.

Just go and win them both, but mostly Arsenal.

[Dave]

I'd be ok with a draw at Arsenal but a win at Chelsea would be massive.

But would you take two draws or a win and a loss? I'd be tempted by the latter if it meant wining at Arsenal, but would be happy with two draws.

Avoiding defeat is the most important thing in games against the teams around us so I'd accept 2 draws easier than a win and a loss, despite it being fewer points.

Yeah, one fewer point for us but two fewer for one of them

[andyh]

I’m getting royally fucked off with commentators and pundits.
Now it’s the fact we have a ‘tough run’ with Chelsea and Arsenal coming up. So what ? They won’t relish playing us either. We are not plucky underdogs playing above our station.
The last time I looked we were 7 points clear of Chelsea and virtually on par with Arsenal having just beaten them.

The only ‘positive’ coverage always feels a bit patronising and generally contains the word ‘but’ !

I would love it. Love it, if we took 6 points from those 2 games,.

Even then I’m sure it would be seen as unsustainable.

[Percy McCarthy]

The transfer window could be a game-changer.

A striker and a right-winger to take some minutes from SJM and keep him fresh.

If we get a couple in who hit the ground running, who knows?

[Stu]

I think we can only spend 70% of our revenue on the squad for UEFA competitions this season? It’s getting tougher.

[Dave]

I think we can only spend 70% of our revenue on the squad for UEFA competitions this season? It’s getting tougher.

But that's on last years revenue isn’t it? Which is fine thanks to Duran and the Champions League run. So we could.

Problem is how that then develops into next year, when we won't have those positives bits in the accounts for 25/26.

[Stu]

I think we can only spend 70% of our revenue on the squad for UEFA competitions this season? It’s getting tougher.

But that's on last years revenue isn’t it? Which is fine thanks to Duran and the Champions League run. So we could.

Problem is how that then develops into next year, when we won't have those positives bits in the accounts for 25/26.

Honestly Dave, I have no idea. The whole thing makes my tiny brain hurt so I’m quite reactionary in binning the whole thing off: firstly because I don’t understand it and the limits seem totally arbitrary, and secondly because it’s quite clearly put in place to stymie disruptive competition.

[AV82EC]

I reckon if we can win or at least get to the Final of the Europa League the projected revenue gap vs the CL season would be about £30-£40m rather than the Armageddon of £50m+ some were predicting. But I’m an optimist so we’ll see. The Deloitte report is usually out in January so we’ll have a better idea then.

[Meanwood Villa]

I'd be ok with a draw at Arsenal but a win at Chelsea would be massive.

But would you take two draws or a win and a loss? I'd be tempted by the latter if it meant wining at Arsenal, but would be happy with two draws.

Avoiding defeat is the most important thing in games against the teams around us so I'd accept 2 draws easier than a win and a loss, despite it being fewer points.

Yeah, one fewer point for us but two fewer for one of them

This is crazy talk, in my opinion.

[Stu]

IMO, finishing in the CL places for us is an amazing achievement on its own considering we’re competing against at least 6/7 clubs who make loads more money than we do.

[olaftab]

I refuse to look at this or even consider it and I have come over to tell you that.

[SaddVillan]

More xG bollocks - this time  from The Athletic

CAN ASTON VILLA CONTINUE TO OVERPERFORM?

Morgan Rogers has been on a goalscoring rampage in December, with two excellent finishes against Manchester United complementing his brace against West Ham United the previous week.

Rogers’ technique to strike the ball is as good as any Premier League player, with no player scoring more than his three goals from outside the penalty area. Sunday’s first goal stood out in particular, and it is hardly surprising that no player has outperformed their expected goals (xG) more than Rogers this season (seven goals from 2.8 xG).

“It’s hard work, it’s long hours — and you want every one to go in the top corner like that, so it’s nice when one does go in,” he said after the game on Sunday. “You’ve just got to keep trying it and trying it, and sometimes it’s your day, sometimes it isn’t. Luckily, lately it has been, and I’m happy about that.”

Elite finishing can win you games, but it taps into a broader trend at Aston Villa this season. They are among the biggest xG overperformers in both boxes, which looks unlikely to continue at the same rate.

Villa fans should rightfully be celebrating their third-place position going into the Christmas period. Unai Emery’s side are robust, physical, and strong in transition, and being so well-drilled will undoubtedly be a key factor in their continued success.

It is just that their underlying numbers don’t match that league position. Looking at their xG difference per game — which accounts for the quality of chances created and conceded — can give a good indication of how they compare to others within the Premier League.

Their -0.22 xG difference per game is among the bottom half of teams — meaning each game is near enough a coin flip in the likelihood of victory each week.

Contrast their spot in the table, and the difference is stark.

The truth likely lies somewhere in the middle. Aston Villa’s push for a Champions League spot looks more than achievable, and Emery’s side should be unapologetic in performing above expectations after 10 consecutive wins in all competitions.

It is simply that the underlying numbers suggest this might not be sustainable. Talk of a title push might just be a little overzealous.

[gpbarr]

We simply do not have the depth to win the league - we are a couple injuries away from having to draft in relatively inexperienced players (see the bench this weekend), whereas Arsenal / City / Chelsea have that strength.

But top 4 would be an amazing achievement, and continue the climb/momentum under UE.