Will we qualify for the CL?

[Flamingo Lane]

We'll do it, no worries.  Could be pretty much guaranteed as early as this weekend, and certainly when we play Spuds.  The double whammy of CL qualification and virtually condemning Spuds in the same match is still on.

The big question now is whether UEFA are starting to look at the rules re the extra place dropping down.  It hasn't been picked up much yet, but there is a possibility that Brentford could find themselves in the situation of knowing they have to lose their last game of the season to qualify for the Champions League.

If we are fourth going into the last day, but only 1/2 points clear of Liverpool then the team in sixth will know that they need Liverpool to finish above us to get in the CL.  If Brentford win their game in hand this week they will move into sixth, and should they find themselves clear in sixth place come the last day then who do they play?  In that scenario, only a loss against Liverpool would give them the chance of qualifying.

It's very remote, but no doubt there will be a hasty revision of the rules in the next few weeks if it looks any more likely.

I'd been thinking along those lines too. As you say, this rule needs looking at.

[PaulWinch again]

I don't think anyone thought it was done before the ManU game. There's a massive difference between it being down to one game last season and the position we're in now. The big one being it wasn't in our own hands as we started the day 6th.

As an aside Brighton finished 8th last season on 61 points, 61 this season will be 5th, possibly even 4th.

Pretty sure it was in our hands, as from memory Chelsea played Forest.

But yes, it is a very different situation and this one is so much more favourable. The point was more, until it’s mathematically done people view things differently and that’s entirely reasonable.

[PeterWithesShin]

Forest were 7th. If Chelsea and Newcastle won final day nothing we did mattered, well unless we won by about 12. Newcastle lost at home to Everton so that's why our result was a gutter.

[eye digress]

I don't think anyone thought it was done before the ManU game. There's a massive difference between it being down to one game last season and the position we're in now. The big one being it wasn't in our own hands as we started the day 6th.

As an aside Brighton finished 8th last season on 61 points, 61 this season will be 5th, possibly even 4th.

Pretty sure it was in our hands, as from memory Chelsea played Forest.

But yes, it is a very different situation and this one is so much more favourable. The point was more, until it’s mathematically done people view things differently and that’s entirely reasonable.

This has been the most likely scenario since January and our extended spurt of form (look back in the thread).

The risks outlined then (title winning form for three of the perceived challengers [Yanited, Liverpool, Chelsea and the Jaudis, at the time] combined with a catastrophic loss of form unheard of under Unai) vaguely hovered into view in February and March, but receded pretty quickly as Yanited aside, pretty well all the teams reverted to the mean.

[Somniloquism]

Forest were 7th. If Chelsea and Newcastle won final day nothing we did mattered, well unless we won by about 12. Newcastle lost at home to Everton so that's why our result was a gutter.

That and the ref's decisions.

[john e]

If we end up with the Europa cup I’ll be glad we missed out last season on CL

[rob_bridge]

If we end up with the Europa cup I’ll be glad we missed out last season on CL

I agree - I doubt we would be so high up in PL had we been in ECL this season and being honest we probably wouldn't still be in it either.

[PeterWithesShin]

Forest were 7th. If Chelsea and Newcastle won final day nothing we did mattered, well unless we won by about 12. Newcastle lost at home to Everton so that's why our result was a gutter.

That and the ref's decisions.

Well yes, because Newcastle lost. If they and Chelsea had won then we were 6th barring sticking a dozen or more past ManU. Well and ManC getting a point. I think some forget how mental last day was, 3 points separated 3rd and 7th before kickoff.

3rd ManC 68 points +26 GD
4th Newcastle 66 +22
5th Chelsea 66 +20
6th Villa 66 +9
7th Forest 65 +13