Will we qualify for the CL?

[PeterWithesShin]

So I don't have to, has anybody worked out when the earliest weekend / game it is that we can have it done and dusted? 

Mayday weekend. But it's already done.

[Pat Mustard]

We'll do it, no worries.  Could be pretty much guaranteed as early as this weekend, and certainly when we play Spuds.  The double whammy of CL qualification and virtually condemning Spuds in the same match is still on.

The big question now is whether UEFA are starting to look at the rules re the extra place dropping down.  It hasn't been picked up much yet, but there is a possibility that Brentford could find themselves in the situation of knowing they have to lose their last game of the season to qualify for the Champions League.

If we are fourth going into the last day, but only 1/2 points clear of Liverpool then the team in sixth will know that they need Liverpool to finish above us to get in the CL.  If Brentford win their game in hand this week they will move into sixth, and should they find themselves clear in sixth place come the last day then who do they play?  In that scenario, only a loss against Liverpool would give them the chance of qualifying.

It's very remote, but no doubt there will be a hasty revision of the rules in the next few weeks if it looks any more likely.

[PeterWithesShin]

Unless i've miscalculated we could be mathematically certain of CL football before we play Spurs.

[PeterWithesShin]

What stops it from being before then is Brighton don't play again until May 2nd.

[Somniloquism]

So I don't have to, has anybody worked out when the earliest weekend / game it is that we can have it done and dusted?

2 games away if we win both. Win this weelend and we are 11 points above Brighton and 12 ahead of Bournemouth having played the same amount and with 4 matches to play. I don't expect either to win all their matches either.

[lukey27]

Brighton's last 4 games look pretty straightforward, but it's v difficult to win 4 in a row in this league.

But even if they do that we need 5 points from our last 5 games to secure CL.

The nervousness and pessimism is ingrained after years of being a Villa fan, but that should be a cake walk.

[rob_bridge]

We'll beat Fulham, Burnley draw with Mighty Reds and draw with Spuds. We will lose to Cit-eh.

4tth is my estimate

Man U have to play Liverpool

[eye digress]

Brighton's last 4 games look pretty straightforward, but it's v difficult to win 4 in a row in this league.

Especially following the 4 in 5 that they've just won.

Brighton are a decent side but not really any better or more effective than, say, Bournemouth, Everton or Brentford. They've had a spurt of form but I expect them to revert to the mean in the closing stages of the season.

And in the unlikely event that they don't, they're going to have to beat Yanited, which just increases our liklihood of qualifying.

And even then, we'd need to suffer a catastrophic loss of form to fail to qualify.

No chance.

Good times!

[john e]

So with other results mainly going our way we look to have done it, near as damn it qualified for the Champions league, oh that sounds grand
There has to be a massive fuck up of Titanic proportions for us to miss out now, oh yes it’s in the hole, nailed on, slam dunked, well nearly

So tell me, why am I still pissing my pants and following everybody else’s results as if my life depends on it. analyzing the point permutations as if they were the numbers on my latest PSA test.

Because I’m a Villa fan that’s why, living in the world of if it could happen it probably will
Nothing is ever as easy as it should be

FTF

[PaulWinch again]

The differences in peoples attitudes to this is all about personality and nobody is “wrong” - whether you’re super optimistic or nervous.

This situation is very favourable and quite a lot needs to go against us for us not to finish top 5. Therefore I suspect we’ll do it quite comfortably, but because of my personality and Villa’s previous failures I’ll have a degree of nerves until it is done.

Also, and this situation is clearly way better and less likely to go awry, but I’m sure there were people last season when it came down to the Man Utd game citing how awful they were, how they had nothing to play for etc and it was pretty much done.

[DB]

It’s massively in our hands, all the talk of the chasing pack catching is based on that we won’t get the points and them having a flawless run in.
I still am nervous though, just a consequence of being a Villa fan.

[LeeS]

I won’t accept that we have qualified until I hear Zadok the Priest whilst a cameraman walks along filming a line of Villa players holding local children’s hands. Then and only then will I believe.

[luke95]

Unless i've miscalculated we could be mathematically certain of CL football before we play Spurs.

I was hoping that's the day we cement both our champs league place & spurs championship place.

[Baldy]

We will qualify because of Unai, his staff and these beauties:





Fulham - Unai won 8 from 8 against Fulham
Spuds - Not won a league game this year.
Burnley- Won 4 of their last 38 EPL home games.
Liverpool - 7-2
Man City - Who cares

That should give you some confidence.

[PeterWithesShin]

I don't think anyone thought it was done before the ManU game. There's a massive difference between it being down to one game last season and the position we're in now. The big one being it wasn't in our own hands as we started the day 6th.

As an aside Brighton finished 8th last season on 61 points, 61 this season will be 5th, possibly even 4th.