Will we qualify for the CL?

[cdbearsfan]

I want top 4 just so we don't give an extra place for the Champions League when we win the Europa League. Unless it's Brentford, they can have it.

Fuck Brentford.

[Drummond]

Well we extended our lead over 6th this weekend. That's what matters.

[Smithy]

Well we extended our lead over 6th this weekend. That's what matters.

Yep, 7 points clear with 6 to play.  We should probably call it 6 points, given their superior goal difference and the fact it's unlikely to change in our favour if they make up the difference on us. 

They've got Man Utd next up, and much as it pains me to back any team ahead of us in the table, a Man Utd win would be helpful.  Especially if we can get a home win against Sunderland.  9 points clear with 5 to play would be a great position to be in.  Though I still maintain we need to be at least 6 points clear of 6th going into the last two games, given we've got Liverpool (who could still be fighting for top 5) and Man City (who might need a result on the last day for the title).

[LeeB]

Well we extended our lead over 6th this weekend. That's what matters.

Yep, 7 points clear with 6 to play.  We should probably call it 6 points, given their superior goal difference and the fact it's unlikely to change in our favour if they make up the difference on us. 

They've got Man Utd next up, and much as it pains me to back any team ahead of us in the table, a Man Utd win would be helpful.  Especially if we can get a home win against Sunderland.  9 points clear with 5 to play would be a great position to be in.  Though I still maintain we need to be at least 6 points clear of 6th going into the last two games, given we've got Liverpool (who could still be fighting for top 5) and Man City (who might need a result on the last day for the title).

It's not playing Liverpool needing a point that concerns me, it's more if that's the case and we've got the Europa Cup final in the middle of them. It would be much nicer to have it wrapped up in that situation so we could focus on the one task.

[Smithy]

Well we extended our lead over 6th this weekend. That's what matters.

Yep, 7 points clear with 6 to play.  We should probably call it 6 points, given their superior goal difference and the fact it's unlikely to change in our favour if they make up the difference on us. 

They've got Man Utd next up, and much as it pains me to back any team ahead of us in the table, a Man Utd win would be helpful.  Especially if we can get a home win against Sunderland.  9 points clear with 5 to play would be a great position to be in.  Though I still maintain we need to be at least 6 points clear of 6th going into the last two games, given we've got Liverpool (who could still be fighting for top 5) and Man City (who might need a result on the last day for the title).

It's not playing Liverpool needing a point that concerns me, it's more if that's the case and we've got the Europa Cup final in the middle of them. It would be much nicer to have it wrapped up in that situation so we could focus on the one task.

If that becomes a problem, then great, but that's still two knockout fixtures away, yet.  However we will definitely play Liverpool and Man City, whatever happens.

If top 5 was mathematically certain by the time we play Liverpool, it would be the best of both worlds, obviously.  But that means matching Chelsea from here on in, result for result.  Having lost 3 of their last 4, that MIGHT not prove to be too difficult, but they're equally capable of stringing a couple of results together and putting the pressure on.

[TheToffnar]

As Townley said last night, if Chelsea lose two games, we only need to two wins to secure top 5.

[Percy McCarthy]

The magic number is 12. So, each point we win or Chelsea lose gets subtracted from that figure until (if and when) it reaches zero and then we’re in. For instance, it would have been 15 before they played yesterday.

Liverpool - 16
Brentford, Everton - 11.

[OCD]

If we take champions league form to mean averaging 2 points per game, the best Chelsea can manage is 60 points. 2 wins puts us on 61 points. So the sooner we can get 2 wins in the Sunderland, Fulham, Spurs and Burnley fixtures, the better.

[eamonn]

The weekends that we've played away like the one just gone, our rivals (Yanited, Pool, Chelsea) have been at home. So I would expect those three to do better on those matchdays most of the time - Liverpool beat Fulham, Ure will probably beat Leeds tonight.
Chelsea's home advantage was curbed by the fact they were facing Citeh.

Next weekend we're at home, Liverpool and Yanited are away (to Everton and Chelsea respectively), and with it being a Villa Park weekend, I expect us to have gained on Liverpool and one or both of the other two by next Sunday. 

[Pat Mustard]

Even being pessimistic and putting in other results going against us in the worst order, it's a pretty remote possibility that 62 points wouldn't be enough now.  This is just looking at games between the realistic contenders left for the top 5, so those max points figures can't all be achieved.

Man Utd - Max points 76, still to play Chelsea, Liverpool and Brentford
Us - Max points 73, still to play Liverpool
Liverpool - Max points 70, still to play Everton, Man Utd, Chelsea, us and Brentford
Chelsea - Max points 66, still to play Man Utd and Liverpool
Brentford - Max points 65, still to play Man Utd and Liverpool
Everton - Max points 65, still to play Liverpool

On top of that, Everton and Brentford both still have to play C115y, and a lot of the remaining games for the others are against teams in the relegation battle, or on the fringes of the European battle.  We have a similar mix of those games, but crucially already have the points on the board.  2 more wins and it will be done, maybe throw in a draw on top just to be certain.

[cdbearsfan]

I think if there were just one team below us, two wins may well be enough. However, given how many teams are bunched below, it isn't impossible that one of them has a great run and wins maybe five out of six. Man U and Liverpool would likely finish above us if we have a bad run, especially if said run includes defeat against the latter, so not impossible we miss out if we do badly. I reckon nine points needed, ten to be absolutely certain.

[Brazilian Villain]

Two wins should do it. Chelsea would then need 4 wins and a draw to finish above us, the others would need at least 5 wins out of 6. Given Chelsea have won 1 and drawn 2 of their last 7 league games, that would require a massive upturn in form.

[Drummond]

I have a horrible feeling it will all come down to our home game v Liverpool.

[Skipper_The_Eyechild]

I want top 4 just so we don't give an extra place for the Champions League when we win the Europa League. Unless it's Brentford, they can have it.

Fuck Brentford.

What have they done to you? Don't like their kit?

[Hookeysmith]

I want third place back but I'd settle for forth.

100% agree and if Leeds can scrape a win tonight i think we can do it - nothing would make me happier (Other than winning the EUFA Europa league